ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Caribwxgirl]

A very scary sunset here on Anguilla with a pink tinted cloudy sky, heavy clouds off to the south and east. Not gonna be fun tonight.

Oh dear that sounds ominous those pink tinted skies tell a tale...please be safe.

[Ptarmigan]

TS Irene is the 3rd earliest for the 9th Atlantic TS to form.

First was Irene 2005 (August 7th).
Second was #9 1936 (August 20th, 06Z).

the Irony there is great.. Irene holds the 1st and 3rd spot..

I think by November 30, 2011, we could be at Greek letters.

[pricetag56]

i dont think the storm was suppose to be this far along in the first place so the threat i belive increases even more now

[StormClouds63]

Odds have to be overwhelming, but I'll ask it anyway. Does Irene become the 1st hurricane of 2011 ... or is it another Emily?

[gatorcane]

Latest. All I have to say is Irene is growing very large:

I had a feeling several days ago this was going to be a player....

[KWT]

The NHC did a fantastic job with their TWOs on this system. It's been up for a while, but only recently got the code red.

Yes,I agree about that. It was a steady increase in % with good wordings.

Yeah can't fault them at all, superb job they've done with this system so far!

The intensity forecast is going to be very hard for the NHC to call given what the models are doing and how even small differences can relaly make a difference to the eventual strength of the system.

[WmE]

that gives them info about the center?

Yes the VDM shows where the recon was able to locate the center. The center of the circulation.

[SFLcane]

Covection really popping now...

[wxman57]

The NHC did a fantastic job with their TWOs on this system. It's been up for a while, but only recently got the code red.

I could argue differently. Just yesterday, they were still at only 30-40% on development chances through Sunday morning and then Sunday afternoon (the next 48 hrs). When development was within their 48 hours the first time (Thursday afternoon), they were only at a 20% chance of development through Saturday evening. It wasn't until development was within about 12 hours that they went over 50% for development chances.

[thundercam96]

The 5-day cone from the NHC will certainly be an interesting map to view on the first advisory!!!

Your Right, it would be very interesting where they have the track.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Latest loop on Irene (6:45pm)
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[wxman57]

The 5-day cone from the NHC will certainly be an interesting map to view on the first advisory!!!

Your Right, it would be very interesting where they have the track.

Look for something close to the consensus track, like this (though it may track west of there).

[gatorcane]

Folks in the islands of Puerto Rico and northern Leewards, are any preps being done?

She may mave the potential to be something more as it seems to be organizing quite quickly.

[Ptarmigan]

Odds have to be overwhelming, but I'll ask it anyway. Does Irene become the 1st hurricane of 2011 ... or is it another Emily?

I think Irene could be our first hurricane of the season.

[MWatkins]

The NHC did a fantastic job with their TWOs on this system. It's been up for a while, but only recently got the code red.

I could argue differently. Just yesterday, they were still at only 30-40% on development chances through Sunday morning and then Sunday afternoon (the next 48 hrs). It wasn't until development was within about 12 hours that they went over 50% for development chances.

Disagree here. There was no cause for a >50% chance for an upgrade this time yesterday. Given the rather rapid organization phase we have seen today, I don't think this one is a good one to second guess. Most storms, given the setup from yesterday, aren't going to do what Irene did today.

Plus, there are lots of people around here who would have jumped all over them with a >50% chance given it's appearance in satellite imagery yesterday. Now, if recon had flown yesterday maybe the percentages would be different, but that just shows how valuable the ground truth is vs. satellite imagery alone.

MW

[cycloneye]

Gotcha Luis, and I'm sure you'll be around too

Unless the power goes.

[northjaxpro]

If it reforms or gets pulled further north under the convection and becomes stronger before interaction with the big islands what kind of shift could we see in the models? Usually stronger and further north means feeling any weaknesses easier for storms but thats not a set rule by any means. I think the next 36 hours of models and how fast Irene can intensify could make for a torublesome forecast for the NHC.

Well, Irene has intensified quicker than all the models had anticipated. It really has pulled together nicely in these past 24 hours and if for some reason it continues to ramp up in intensity, I would tend to think that could be more troublesome for folks along the entire SE Atlantic U.S. coastline.

I remembered reading the Wilmington, NC discussion earlier today about the possibility of this system in tensifyimng quicker than expected. Here is a snippet from that AFD:


WORTH NOTING MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE AN IMPRESSIVE
TROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTO THE
EASTERN/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE PERIOD. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THIS FORECAST...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT
LOCATION OF THE FEATURE AND ITS CONDITION THINK THE OCCASIONAL EAST
COAST SOLUTION SHOW BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT BELIEVABLE. FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN THE STORM WOULD NEED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

Right now, there is no doubt about the system developing rapidly these past 24 hours. Now it is a question of just how much stronger she will get in the short term in regards to how it may affect the track down the road. Generally the stronger the storm, the more it generally will feel the any weaknesses in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

[SouthDadeFish]

I don't think the 00Z Dvorak estimates will be "TOO WEAK"

[otowntiger]

Folks in the islands of Puerto Rico and northern Leewards, are any preps being done?

She may mave the potential to be something more as it seems to be organizing quite quickly.

Is it really organizing quickly? I'm not trying to be a smartazz just wondering if that is the consensus here. It looks to me to be rather disorganized still, but I'm no expert (just a seasoned enthusiast! ).

[senorpepr]

TS Irene is the 3rd earliest for the 9th Atlantic TS to form.

First was Irene 2005 (August 7th).
Second was #9 1936 (August 20th, 06Z).

the Irony there is great.. Irene holds the 1st and 3rd spot..

I think by November 30, 2011, we could be at Greek letters.

FWIW...

Code: Select all

         2005    Diff   2011
Arlene   Jun 09  -20  Jun 29  Arlene
Bret     Jun 29  -19  Jul 18  Bret
Cindy    Jul 05  -15  Jul 20  Cindy
Dennis   Jul 05  -22  Jul 27  Don
Emily    Jul 12  -20  Aug 01  Emily
Franklin Jul 22  -22  Aug 13  Franklin
Gert     Jul 24  -21  Aug 14  Gert
Harvey   Aug 03  -16  Aug 19  Harvey
Irene    Aug 07  -13  Aug 20  Irene
Jose     Aug 22  TBD  TBD     Jose


We had been running about 3 weeks behind 2005's pace. We shorted it to 2 1/2 weeks with Harvey and under 2 weeks with Irene. If 98L gets running soon, the lead will be even smaller...