ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

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Elsiecoro
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1321 Postby Elsiecoro » Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:29 pm

if i caught wxman57 correctly, the hebert box does not predict whether the storm will hit Fl, its only looking back, you see the correlation? :double:
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Re:

#1322 Postby maxintensity » Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:30 pm

ALhurricane wrote:Nobody should be surprised by a conservative intensity forecast. 50 miles difference in track will make all the difference in the world. It will be interesting to see how far north it gets before the trough lifts out and ridging begins to build back in from the east.

It's always fascinating to see what people view as conservative when it comes to forecasting hurricane intensity. One group believes conservative is downplaying the intensity and opting to forecast the low-end of the possibilities. The other group believes conservative is forecasting the worst case scenario if it is somewhat likely to occur. This group believes that conservatism is gained by alerting the public that there is a somewhat reasonable chance of a life and death storm affecting them soon. The NHC has historically been in group one, believing it's in the publics interest to opt for the low-end of the possibilities when there is uncertainty. I'm in group two but it's a debate as to which is the best approach to conservatism.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1323 Postby northtxboy » Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:30 pm

Tampa_God wrote:I think the NHC is being too modest here. Many of us were expecting a TS as well, but to be at 50 mph on it's first advisory I think many would had doubt. This morning, it didn't even look that good. And throughout the day, Irene got her act together, tightened, and this is what we have now. Conditions are almost perfect for RI with Irene. I wouldn't be surprised if we have a hurricane before tomorrow is over.


I like your way of thinking!! You got balls and I am with ya :wink:
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1324 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:31 pm

Elsiecoro wrote:if i caught wxman57 correctly, the hebert box does not predict whether the storm will hit Fl, its only looking back, you see the correlation? :double:


It's not a "prediction" tool but does provide a lot of insight for storms like this on similar tracks. It's worth your time to research it, etc.
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#1325 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:31 pm

Sometimes you just have to look at the bigger picture...lol

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1326 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:31 pm

Elsiecoro wrote:if i caught wxman57 correctly, the hebert box does not predict whether the storm will hit Fl, its only looking back, you see the correlation? :double:


Correct. Most storms that hit Florida go through the box, but many storms that go through the box do not hit Florida. :) Clear as mud?
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#1327 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:33 pm

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Wow convection is really blowing up now isn't it.

Going to be a big storm and possible hurricane when all is said and and done.

Looks like an anticyclone in the upper layers of the atmosphere is building on top as you can see the symmetric presentation of Irene and fanning cloud tops in all quadrants.

Wouldn't surprise me if she becomes a hurricane quicker than the NHC intensity forecasts calls for.
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:36 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re:

#1328 Postby northtxboy » Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:34 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Sometimes you just have to look at the bigger picture...lol

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html


Irene is a big ole girl!!! I like em big.. :wink:
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Re: Re:

#1329 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:36 pm

northtxboy wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Sometimes you just have to look at the bigger picture...lol

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html


Irene is a big ole girl!!! I like em big.. :wink:

Boy looking at that looop ,makes you think she could get north of the islands
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Re:

#1330 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:37 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Wouldn't surprise me if she becomes a hurricane quicker than the NHC intensity forecasts calls for.


If the system ends up tucking under that convection then yeah it could well strengthen quicker then expected.

I'd have thought the chances of it being a hurricane before Hispaniola have really shot up in the alst 12hrs, esp given its already at 45kts.
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#1331 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:38 pm

Has anyone checked on tide times and moon phases for a possible landfall in SoFlo yet?
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Re: Re:

#1332 Postby Nikki » Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:38 pm

northtxboy wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Sometimes you just have to look at the bigger picture...lol

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html


Irene is a big ole girl!!! I like em big.. :wink:



Seeing how you are so far inland that you would NEVER experience the affects of a hurricane FIRST HAND, I guess you would...but for those of us who live on the coast, this isn't A JOKE to us, so I will kindly ask you to think about WHAT YOU POST BEFORE YOU POST IT! A major hurricane IS NEVER SOMETHING TO TAKE LIGHTLY!! So instead of making jokes, why don't you think about the 1000's of people this storm will affect?!?!?!
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Re: Re:

#1333 Postby shaggy » Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:39 pm

KWT wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
Wouldn't surprise me if she becomes a hurricane quicker than the NHC intensity forecasts calls for.


If the system ends up tucking under that convection then yeah it could well strengthen quicker then expected.

I'd have thought the chances of it being a hurricane before Hispaniola have really shot up in the alst 12hrs, esp given its already at 45kts.



If it tucks under that convection and it maintains overnight we could be pushing cane by 5pm tomorrow at the rate its organizing.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1334 Postby clfenwi » Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:39 pm

shaggy wrote:Anyone know where the 18z intialized at versus the first official point of 14.9N and 58.5W?


The first run of the 18Z tropical models were run with an initial location of 14.5N and 56.5W.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1335 Postby artist » Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:40 pm

cycloneye please check your pm's!
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#1336 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:40 pm

Lets hope it misses Haiti, they don't need a minimal hurricane coming down at them after the rains from Emily and the general problems of the country.

PS, GFS focuses in on the stronger convection further north, setting up at 16N by 06z, sounds reasonable, sadly that does mean the GFS track is probably quite close to the mark as well...
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1337 Postby BatzVI » Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:40 pm

Now I'm wondering if I should put the shutters on...she looks pretty good out there...any thoughts?
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Re:

#1338 Postby pricetag56 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:40 pm

gatorcane wrote:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Wow convection is really blowing up now isn't it.

Going to be a big storm and possible hurricane when all is said and and done.

Looks like an anticyclone in the upper layers of the atmosphere is building on top as you can see the symmetric presentation of Irene and fanning cloud tops in all quadrants.

Wouldn't surprise me if she becomes a hurricane quicker than the NHC intensity forecasts calls for.

it definately looks like it and it has plenty of time because of the rapid development into a storm
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1339 Postby jinftl » Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:40 pm

What is interesting...and this begins to highlight just how uncertain the intensity forecast is....as of 2pm Monday, the official forecast is for a 75mph Cat 1, but the probability of it being a hurricane at 2pm Monday is listed as 36%.

Due to possible land interactions, in 120 hours, there is a 16% chance Irene will have dissipated, or if she avoids as much land, there is a 17% chance she will be a hurricane.

The trend of these probabilties over future advisories will be telling.


Image
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Re: Re:

#1340 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 20, 2011 6:41 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:
northtxboy wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Sometimes you just have to look at the bigger picture...lol

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html


Irene is a big ole girl!!! I like em big.. :wink:

Boy looking at that looop ,makes you think she could get north of the islands


yeah I have been thinking about that possibility today. especially if the center reforms under the convection. then a wnw track would essentially take down the spine on hispaniola. but if it does strengthen to a hurricane prior to hispaniola a track just north of it is possible.. not likely at this point but still leaving the option open
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