http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/gfs06zaug28.gif[url]
First of all, I'm 100% certain we have Fabian out there now. I'm not sure what "multiple centers" the NHC was tracking overnight, but visible satellite imagery indicates a TS centered near 14.8N/37W.
For the first time, the GFS is concentrating on the REAL storm out east (TD-10) and not the disturbance to the north. As with the tropical suite, the 06Z GFS has a more westward track through 120hrs - just brushing the islands of the eastern Caribbean. But it REALLY gets interesting after 300 hours as high pressure begins blocking it after a NW turn. Note the southwest movement to Miami, stalling, then north to the Carolinas. It's indicating a pretty big/strong storm, too.
Also, the GFDL, for the first time, does NOT dissipate this storm within 24hrs. It carries it all the way out to 126hrs to near 19N/58W or so.
Now, obviously, the chances of this exact thing happening at 384 hrs is not high, but it does imply a greater threat to the east coast from FL to the Outer Banks of NC down the road.
Oh, and it also says that I will be working this coming weekend since we have customers in the NE Caribbean that may be brushed by it.
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Holding with my theory that the first place it shows it going it won't.....remember we're talking Florida here (Storm shield). Takes an unusual set of circumstances to get an east Florida hit. That plus the fact that the low NE of the Leewards could poke a hole in the ridge. If the high builds in after 144 hours, it will probably shift it W/WSW toward the Keys and the GOM. That's the way this usually works as far as Florida goes. Either goes north or south of the peninsula. But I would watch this one Luis (Georges) :o
Is that a completely dumb question?
It's enough to make a person crazy! :23:
