ATL: IRENE - Models

[SFLcane]

18z hwrf...

[gatorcane]

Yeah the HWRF is more like it.

BTW, I would not even consider the GFDL considering the ECMWF and GFS as well as HWRF have been consistent run after run after run.

Of course they could be consistently wrong!

[Ivanhater]

HWRF is almost always too far east so take that into account....the GFDL throws more uncertainty into the mix

[KWT]

:uarrow: Let's just say if the 18Z GFDL verifies.... It wouldn't be good.

Considering the GFDL didn't even pick up on the system for the past 4 or 5 runs, I would be highly suspect of the GFDL right now and treat it as an outlier. Let's see what the HWRF does.

HWRf looks better trackwise, broadly the same track as ECM/GFS, quite a neat fusuion between the two...could ride up the east coast of Florida.

Very strong before Hispaniola as well...

To be fair the CMC/UKMO aren't that much different then the GFDL so its not an outlier really...

[jinftl]

Plus or minus 500 miles...the margin of error that far out if not more....the trends of the models are the key right now...there are many things that could impact this storm...like getting ripped apart by hispanola or cuba before it could point anywhere outside of the forecast cone now...

perhaps we should start a Texas-leaning model thread so the next 24, 48, 72 hours can be focused on now?

i still think there is a possibility of irene making it as far west as the upper texas coast

There is absolutely nothing that points in that direction and I think you may be trolling. Please stop.

The GFDL, UKMET, and Canadian point that way

[rockyman]

Here's another view of that GFDL:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... lLoop.html

[SouthFLTropics]

18z hwrf...
http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/hwrf ... 8_nest.png[/img]

Ouch! Good thing it is the "overdone" HWRF!

SFT

[SouthDadeFish]

18Z GFDL:


HOUR: .0 LONG: -57.22 LAT: 14.44 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.85 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.10
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -58.80 LAT: 14.84 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.67 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.43
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -60.77 LAT: 15.33 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.36 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.31
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -62.88 LAT: 15.81 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.82 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.20
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -64.59 LAT: 16.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.60 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 62.83
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -66.30 LAT: 16.61 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.96 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.30
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -67.87 LAT: 16.79 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.74 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 82.12
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -69.46 LAT: 16.94 MIN PRESS (hPa): 971.33 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 89.53
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -70.92 LAT: 17.15 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.33 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):106.45
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -72.28 LAT: 17.35 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.60 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):104.04
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -73.64 LAT: 17.58 MIN PRESS (hPa): 952.33 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):107.73
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -74.86 LAT: 17.79 MIN PRESS (hPa): 948.83 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):107.80
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -75.95 LAT: 17.88 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.23 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):114.43
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -76.92 LAT: 17.87 MIN PRESS (hPa): 941.82 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):109.23
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -78.01 LAT: 18.01 MIN PRESS (hPa): 948.03 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):107.60
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -79.00 LAT: 18.25 MIN PRESS (hPa): 945.67 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):113.95
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -79.93 LAT: 18.54 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.10 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):118.59
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -80.70 LAT: 18.88 MIN PRESS (hPa): 931.85 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):125.30
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -81.63 LAT: 19.38 MIN PRESS (hPa): 929.82 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):124.06
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -82.53 LAT: 19.98 MIN PRESS (hPa): 928.34 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):124.96
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -83.46 LAT: 20.66 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.56 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):132.89
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -84.50 LAT: 21.32 MIN PRESS (hPa): 920.99 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):133.46

[tolakram]

It's unfortunate the HWRF takes that track, since it's almost always wrong. I would have preferred the two models switched, since the GFDL is more believable.

[WeatherEmperor]

This is the first GFDL that develops Irene. Meanwhile, the GFS, Nogaps and Euro have been developing and tracking it consistently the last 4-5 days. I think the GFDL needs to do more runs consistently in order to get respect with Irene.

[thundercam96]

Wow that GFDL is nuts, goes down to something like 920mbs!!

Still, the models show a VERY favourable set-up aloft, given the amount of land interaction GFS/ECM show and still having it as a hurricane by landfall is ringing big alarm bells!

You Have that right.

[KWT]

Whats more worrying is both the HWRF and the GFDL really strengthen this system before Hispaniola...abit concerned by that actually.

[Ivanhater]

GFDL

[thundercam96]

GFDL

What Are The Winds At The End?

[rockyman]

The GFDL is not too "crazy"...because it doesn't diverge from the NHC cone until after Day 3 (at Jamaica). If the GFDL was outside the 3 day cone, I'd discard it, since the NHC is so good within 3 days

[Ivanhater]

Upper Category 4 I think

[Rgv20]

Well the GFDL just made the track forecast a whole lot murkier.

[Tampa_God]

Surprising contrast by different models. One has it as a East Florida factor, another has it almost as a AL/FL Pan factor. I think it can only be said that right now, much of the Southeast has to watch this storm from now.

[rockyman]

Hurricane Andrew's lowest pressure was 922mb

[KWT]

Winds would probably be 120-125kts based on the output, truth is though with that sort of pressure it could be a little stronger.

Either way, thats a POWERFUL hurricane on that 18z GFDL.