ATL: IRENE - Models

[AdamFirst]

Will the 0z models have the recon data in it tonight?

Yes.

[Tampa_God]

I'm trying to wonder what the models are picking up on the ridge. One seems to have the ridge staying pretty weak, allowing this thing to recurve earlier. And the other one seems to have a strong ridge in place, pushing this further to the west.

Now, if this thing makes it to the GoM like the GFDL has it, is it a better chance that this thing will go strictly NW to N instead of any slight curve to the NE?

[gatorcane]

Spaghetti plot loaded again here for easy reference.

Tight clustering over the FL peninsula but the UKMET and GFDL are tightly clustered for a much more west track. Should get interesting!

[KWT]

If the system does relocate northwards towards the deeper convection then the chances of it missing hispaniola pretty much decrease to near nothing, the chances of a ECM track increase, esp given it has got a decent handle of where this system is at the moment.

That being said obviously the low level center may stick further south, in which case the more left tracks under Hispaniola are possible.

[thundercam96]

Latest spaghetti plot with updated GFDL:

Would The GFDL Model Turn Back To the East Towards Flordia?

[red herring]

i am not trying to get no enemys on here i really enjoy this forum...there are some really smart people on here that i really respect there knowledge of tropical weather...i just feel the models will trend more to the west as time goes on...i may be wrong and GOD be with the folks who have to deal with this storm cause i know how it feels...thank you alll for the great information

I second that.....this board is the best!

[Ivanhater]

It seems the GFDL not developing this earlier was a mechanical issue with the model.

[gatorcane]

It seems the GFDL not developing this earlier was a mechanical issue with the model.

I don't know. Seems like somebody got tired with its wimpy forecast and then pumped it up with some steroids or something.

Went from nothing for 4 runs to a CAT 5 on this run

[Ivanhater]

It seems the GFDL not developing this earlier was a mechanical issue with the model.

I don't know. Seems like somebody got tired with its wimpy forecast and then pumped it up with some steroids or something.

Went from nothing for 4 runs to a CAT 5 on this run

A small change

[rockyman]

With none of the major models showing Irene passing EAST of Florida, and several showing it passing WEST of the Florida Peninsula, I would think that the next advisory would shift the cone more toward the Gulf side of the state (less toward the Atlantic side).

[psyclone]

It seems the GFDL not developing this earlier was a mechanical issue with the model.

at the risk of sounding stupid...what exactly do you mean by "mechanical issue"?

[artist]

OK, now could you all please tell me where each of these last runs initialized Irene? That is what is going to tell the story, in my opinion. How good were they are showing where she currently is and at what strength? Otherwise we really should know better after the next model runs that have that recon data in them.

[AtlanticWind]

It seems the GFDL not developing this earlier was a mechanical issue with the model.

at the risk of sounding stupid...what exactly do you mean by "mechanical issue"?

I not sure what that means, but it seems I read that have not upgraded The GFDL

[KWT]

It seems the GFDL not developing this earlier was a mechanical issue with the model.

Yeah just read that, very interesting stuff!

Whatever the case, it certainly bombs it on its 18z run...which by the way is very realistic IF it does take that track and avoid land interaction.

[Ivanhater]

It seems the GFDL not developing this earlier was a mechanical issue with the model.

at the risk of sounding stupid...what exactly do you mean by "mechanical issue"?

That is beyond me, but talking to Derek, he says it was a computer tracking error and the GFDL was not dissipating it because of meteorological factors.

[USTropics]

Wxman57 commented on this earlier:

There is a very good reason that the GFDL dropped 97L after 0 or 6 hours for the past few days. The GFDL was upgraded in 2011 with a new convective scheme. This should significantly improve track forecasts. However, the downside is that it is now VERY sluggish in initiating convection compared to the pre-2011 model. Prior to the recent run, the model saw a less-than-ideal environment ahead of 97L which caused the disturbance to struggle. This caused the program to shut down immediately rather than carry the disturbance PAST the unfavorable environment where it would likely develop. Now that the environment ahead of Irene is more favorable for development, the GFDL run can complete through 126 hours.

And THAT's why the GFDL lost 97L the past few days.

[Tampa_God]

Would The GFDL Model Turn Back To the East Towards Flordia?

That's what I'm wondering thunder. Because the GFDL re-curves at about the same time as all the others do, but the GFDL track is further south of the rest. And once the rest start re-curving, they start a NE direction. Wondering if the same will occur with the GFDL track.

[clfenwi]

OK, now could you all please tell me where each of these last runs initialized Irene? That is what is going to tell the story, in my opinion. How good were they are showing where she currently is and at what strength? Otherwise we really should know better after the next model runs that have that recon data in them.

GFDL initialization

HOUR: .0 LONG: -57.22 LAT: 14.44 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.85 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.10

HWRF initalization

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -57.10 LAT: 14.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 44.00

18Z best track

AL, 09, 2011082018, , BEST, 0, 146N, 572W, 45, 1006,

So, both were in the ballpark. No egregious errors with regard to initialization.

[psyclone]

thanks for the feedback. I'm glad to see the gfdl back in the game but it doesn't exactly add much clarity.

[Ivanhater]

Wxman57 commented on this earlier:

There is a very good reason that the GFDL dropped 97L after 0 or 6 hours for the past few days. The GFDL was upgraded in 2011 with a new convective scheme. This should significantly improve track forecasts. However, the downside is that it is now VERY sluggish in initiating convection compared to the pre-2011 model. Prior to the recent run, the model saw a less-than-ideal environment ahead of 97L which caused the disturbance to struggle. This caused the program to shut down immediately rather than carry the disturbance PAST the unfavorable environment where it would likely develop. Now that the environment ahead of Irene is more favorable for development, the GFDL run can complete through 126 hours.

And THAT's why the GFDL lost 97L the past few days.

Well there it is!