ATL: IRENE - Models

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ronjon
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1841 Postby ronjon » Sat Aug 20, 2011 7:53 pm

Animated 18z GFDL - takes it south of JAM. Looks overdone on the ridging but maybe its a trend. We'll see with the 00z model suite.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2011082018-invest97l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1842 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 20, 2011 7:54 pm

00z TCVN-consensus model shoots north a bit.

Image
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#1843 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 20, 2011 7:55 pm

clfenwi, thats of course assuming the system doesn't decide to relocate towards the convection, its pretty xommon thing in these developing systems afterall...

If that were to happen then those models would be too far south...

Funnily enough the GFS is abit further north already by 06z at 16-16.5N roughly.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1844 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 20, 2011 7:55 pm

SFLcane wrote:00z TCVN-consensus model shoots north a bit.

Image


and the Bam medium and deep shift east slightly.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1845 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sat Aug 20, 2011 7:56 pm

From JB:

Irene has developed, and I have no changes... its a Florida/Se threat where the preseason impact forecast was centered
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#1846 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 20, 2011 7:57 pm

SFLcane, exactly the same track as the ECM, like identical!!

Strengthening hurricane heading up the east coast of Florida, not a great track for Florida OR GA/SC.

Most models take the path of *least strengthening*.
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#1847 Postby rockyman » Sat Aug 20, 2011 8:00 pm

GFDL is missing in action on that model map. I must say, that TVCN is surprising, since it is east of all of the major models
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Re:

#1848 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 20, 2011 8:01 pm

rockyman wrote:GFDL is missing in action on that model map. I must say, that TVCN is surprising, since it is east of all of the major models


As is the Canadian
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Re: Re:

#1849 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 20, 2011 8:02 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
rockyman wrote:GFDL is missing in action on that model map. I must say, that TVCN is surprising, since it is east of all of the major models


As is the Canadian


because you have to click on storm 9 not 97L
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1850 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 20, 2011 8:02 pm

18z GFS Ensemble members...only 1 east of Florida now...almost all into the Panhandle

Also notice the bend further left of the operational

Image
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#1851 Postby rockyman » Sat Aug 20, 2011 8:03 pm

GFDL is still updating on the Storm_97 map, while the rest of the models are now on the Storm_09 page:

Image
Last edited by rockyman on Sat Aug 20, 2011 8:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1852 Postby clfenwi » Sat Aug 20, 2011 8:04 pm

Breakdown of the 00Z SHIPS guidance

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *       IRENE  AL092011  08/21/11  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    45    49    55    63    68    80    92    96   103   105   106   107   108
V (KT) LAND       45    49    55    63    68    80    92    74    80    58    59    59    61
V (KT) LGE mod    45    49    53    58    64    74    84    70    82    61    64    73    79
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         3     2     3     4     1     4     8     9     8    16    13    12    13
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -3     0     0     0     2     0    -4     2     0     0    -1     0     0
SHEAR DIR        137   285   284   326   264   325   314   293   281   290   237   249   240
SST (C)         28.8  28.8  28.8  28.9  28.9  28.8  28.8  29.1  29.4  29.6  29.8  30.1  30.3
POT. INT. (KT)   152   151   151   152   151   150   149   153   158   162   166   170   170
ADJ. POT. INT.   158   156   152   150   149   146   144   145   148   151   152   153   153
200 MB T (C)   -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -52.1 -51.4 -51.9 -50.5
TH_E DEV (C)      11    12    12    12    12    12    12    12    11    10    10    10     9
700-500 MB RH     55    53    58    59    59    60    60    57    62    64    68    68    69
GFS VTEX (KT)     10    10    13    16    16    18    20    20    21    21    22    24    28
850 MB ENV VOR    71    60    61    65    64    59    71    51    71    65    91    87   106
200 MB DIV        64    57    65   107    82    33    71    19    81    35    62    65    91
700-850 TADV       2     3     6     0     0     2    -2     0    -2     9     0    16    22
LAND (KM)        514   511   418   284   182   131    34    33    60   -41    57   134   116
LAT (DEG N)     15.0  15.4  15.8  16.1  16.4  17.1  17.9  18.6  19.4  20.6  22.3  23.5  24.4
LONG(DEG W)     59.0  60.9  62.7  64.1  65.5  68.0  70.7  72.9  74.6  76.1  77.4  78.7  79.8
STM SPEED (KT)    19    18    16    14    13    13    12    10     9    10     9     8     6
HEAT CONTENT      67    71    79    89    65    80    97    18   101    98    56    95   105

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19      CX,CY: -18/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  40            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  559  (MEAN=623)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  20.0 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  75.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   2.   3.   4.   7.  11.  14.  16.  18.  20.  21.  21.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   4.   6.   8.  10.  11.  12.  11.  11.  10.  10.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -8.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   1.   2.   3.   5.   8.   8.   8.   8.   9.  10.  13.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   5.   5.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.   4.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   5.   6.   6.   7.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.   2.   2.   1.   1.   2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           4.  10.  18.  23.  35.  47.  51.  58.  60.  61.  62.  63.

   ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092011      IRENE 08/21/11  00 UTC **
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  2.2
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   2.9 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  1.9
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  20.0 Range: 34.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.9
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  75.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  1.1
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 108.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  69.2 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.3
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  74.2 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.0
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.2
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    48% is   3.7 times the sample mean(12.8%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    27% is   3.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    22% is   4.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    10% is   2.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092011      IRENE 08/21/11  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092011      IRENE 08/21/2011  00 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       3(  3)       7( 10)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       1(  1)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
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Re: Re:

#1853 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 20, 2011 8:04 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:
rockyman wrote:GFDL is missing in action on that model map. I must say, that TVCN is surprising, since it is east of all of the major models


As is the Canadian


because you have to click on storm 9 not 97L


I'm talking about the map posted
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#1854 Postby rockyman » Sat Aug 20, 2011 8:05 pm

Is there a plot of the new "consensus model"...the one that drops the NOGAPS?
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#1855 Postby rockyman » Sat Aug 20, 2011 8:06 pm

Now everything is on the same map, except for Canadian (if GFDL doesn't appear on the below map, hit Refresh):

Image
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#1856 Postby rockyman » Sat Aug 20, 2011 8:08 pm

Note that the TVCN has shifted back to the west once the model maps were consolidated.
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Re:

#1857 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 20, 2011 8:09 pm

rockyman wrote:Note that the TVCN has shifted back to the west once the model maps were consolidated.


Yeah the NHC fixed it...

AL 09 2011082100 03 TVCN 0 150N 590W
AL 09 2011082100 03 TVCN 12 161N 627W
AL 09 2011082100 03 TVCN 24 168N 658W
AL 09 2011082100 03 TVCN 36 173N 683W
AL 09 2011082100 03 TVCN 48 180N 705W
AL 09 2011082100 03 TVCN 60 188N 727W
AL 09 2011082100 03 TVCN 72 195N 745W
AL 09 2011082100 03 TVCN 84 203N 763W
AL 09 2011082100 03 TVCN 96 214N 779W
AL 09 2011082100 03 TVCN 108 228N 793W
AL 09 2011082100 03 TVCN 120 245N 805W
AL 09 2011082100 03 TVCN 132 264N 817W
AL 09 2011082100 03 TVCN 144 295N 814W
AL 09 2011082100 03 TVCN 156 311N 830W
AL 09 2011082100 03 TVCN 168 326N 839W
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#1858 Postby rockyman » Sat Aug 20, 2011 8:11 pm

I'm guessing that the NHC will shift the track slightly to the west at 10pm. Perhaps showing landfall in the Keys instead of closer to Miami
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1859 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Aug 20, 2011 8:12 pm

I love these model discussions. No it goes more west...no more east... Shift is coming... hahaha. Darn Irene. Please tell us where you are going to go!
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1860 Postby artist » Sat Aug 20, 2011 8:14 pm

courtesy of chris through google earth from tropicalatlantic.com that also supplies us recon data.

Image
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