ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[TBCaneFreak]

I think the track will shift west and show it entering the Gom by tommorow night

Expecting it to increase in forward speed abit are ya? 22 mph now. At that rate the GOM is forcast in 4 to 5 days...so we need her to speed up to about 80mph in forward speed...plausable i guess

Actually, the system is going to slow down in the coming days.

If the system is at 59 west, and for rounding sake, and say the GOM starts around 80 west. That's 21 degrees of longitude.

At a forward speed of 20 knots, that's one degree of movement every 3 hours (60 knots = 1 degree). Assuming no northward component of motion, the system could travel 8 degrees a day (24/3 = 8). That would get it to the GOM in less than three days.

Irene is going to slow down as the ridge to the north weakens, and many of the models have it traveling at half it's current speed when it gets there.

So yeah no way it gets there tomorrow

MW

Mike, I have been an enthusist of tropical weather for 30years, and you just taught me something...I never knew why they said minutes when calculating Lon/Lat....Cool
Kevin

[bella_may]

Yep..track shifted slightly west

Looks like it did just a little. Perhaps its the start to a westward trend?

[SouthDadeFish]

I dont like ths sentence.

A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO TOMORROW IF
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST.

Luis I thought that was a very interesting sentence. It is almost as if they expecting a northward adjustment. At least that's how it came off to me.

[bella_may]

Yep..track shifted slightly west

Looks like it did just a little. Perhaps its the start to a westward trend?

[artist]

I think the track will shift west and show it entering the Gom by tommorow night

Expecting it to increase in forward speed abit are ya? 22 mph now. At that rate the GOM is forcast in 4 to 5 days...so we need her to speed up to about 80mph in forward speed...plausable i guess

Actually, the system is going to slow down in the coming days.

If the system is at 59 west, and for rounding sake, and say the GOM starts around 80 west. That's 21 degrees of longitude.

At a forward speed of 20 knots, that's one degree of movement every 3 hours (60 knots = 1 degree). Assuming no northward component of motion, the system could travel 8 degrees a day (24/3 = 8). That would get it to the GOM in less than three days.

Irene is going to slow down as the ridge to the north weakens, and many of the models have it traveling at half it's current speed when it gets there.

So yeah no way it gets there tomorrow

MW

Mike I respect your opinion. What are your thoughts at this point?

[cycloneye]

I dont like ths sentence.

A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO TOMORROW IF
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST.

Luis I thought that was a very interesting sentence. It is almost as if they expecting a northward adjustment. At least that's how it came off to me.

I think you may not know where I am.

[sunnyday]

Every time the track shifts west, I feel better about SE Fl. Is that valid this far out? I expect the cone to go more west at 11. Just my opinion==See the NHC for accurate info.

[SouthDadeFish]

I dont like ths sentence.

A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO TOMORROW IF
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST.

Luis I thought that was a very interesting sentence. It is almost as if they expecting a northward adjustment. At least that's how it came off to me.

I think you may not know where I am.

What do you mean? I meant interesting as a bad thing!

[ConvergenceZone]

I dont like ths sentence.

A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO TOMORROW IF
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST.

Luis I thought that was a very interesting sentence. It is almost as if they expecting a northward adjustment. At least that's how it came off to me.

Hmm, I'm not sure since they shifted the track a bit west during this last advisory. It could be that they just don't want Puerto Rico to be caught off guard just in case the track does change...

[Ivanhater]

I dont like ths sentence.

A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO TOMORROW IF
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST.

Luis I thought that was a very interesting sentence. It is almost as if they expecting a northward adjustment. At least that's how it came off to me.

Hmm, I'm not sure since they shifted the track a bit west during this last advisory. It could be that they just don't want Puerto Rico to be caught off guard just in case the track does change...

Yeah they went more west this run given the uncertainty

HOW MUCH
OF A WEAKNESS IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE...HOWEVER...WITH A VARIETY OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING LARGE TRACK SPREAD AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...A FEW OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE
UKMET...SHOW MORE OF AN EMPHASIS ON A SECOND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND DO NOT SHOW THE FIRST TROUGH AFFECTING
IRENE MUCH. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST IN THE
LATER PERIODS...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO SHIFT THE NHC FORECAST
IN THAT DIRECTION. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...THIS IS
A GOOD TIME TO REMIND USERS THAT THE AVERAGE DAY 4 AND 5 NHC TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 250 MILES.

[SouthDadeFish]

Anyone have an image of the microwave pass the NHC was talking about in the discussion?

[SeminoleWind]

Boy she is really starting to get it together down there...

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/

[HURAKAN]

Anyone have an image of the microwave pass the NHC was talking about in the discussion?

maybe it's this one

[Adoquín]

I dont like ths sentence.

A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO TOMORROW IF
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST.

Luis I thought that was a very interesting sentence. It is almost as if they expecting a northward adjustment. At least that's how it came off to me.

I think you may not know where I am.

unfortunately, we will have to wait until morning given the lack od recon earlier. It may be at 15.3, which I doubt, but all the fun stuff is on the north side and getting bigger.

[wxman57]

Note that it's 1 degree of latitude that = 60 nautical miles. The distance between 1 degree of longitude is greatest at the Equator and decreases poleward to zero at the North Pole. So you cannot use degrees of longitude to estimate speed.

NHC track did shift west, as I expected. I think the consensus models will continue to shift west tonight, leading to a more powerful hurricane when Irene hits Cuba and passes west of the Florida peninsula.

[gatorcane]

Hmm unless the ECMWF or GFS make a significant west shift on the 00z, no way I would bet against those models. Not with the consistency they have been showing.

They are very reliable with mid-latitude synoptics.

[cycloneye]

What do you mean? I meant interesting as a bad thing!

SouthDadeFish,what I meant is that I am in Puerto Rico.

[otowntiger]

I dont like ths sentence.

A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO TOMORROW IF
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST.

Luis I thought that was a very interesting sentence. It is almost as if they expecting a northward adjustment. At least that's how it came off to me.

Actualy more significant than the track is that they are allowing for the possibility of it becoming a hurricane faster than officially forecast.

[Ivanhater]

Note that it's 1 degree of latitude that = 60 nautical miles. The distance between 1 degree of longitude is greatest at the Equator and decreases poleward to zero at the North Pole. So you cannot use degrees of longitude to estimate speed.

NHC track did shift west, as I expected. I think the consensus models will continue to shift west tonight, leading to a more powerful hurricane when Irene hits Cuba and passes west of the Florida peninsula.

I am not liking what you are hinting at Wxman

[WilmingtonSandbar]

[/quote]
now that looks more similar to present model consensus[/quote]
That's too far east IMO[/quote]

That's well within the cone.

[/quote]

Not only is it well within the cone, there were a couple models today that had it going up the east coast of Florida. From the beginning, there has been talk that if if strengthens quickly, it could pull north sooner.