ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[deltadog03]

I agree with wxman.....I also agree with that look from the NAM....I think we see the EURO And GFS shift WEST a bit tonight....IMO the adjustments will be small, but will favor the W direction....

[bella_may]

Note that it's 1 degree of latitude that = 60 nautical miles. The distance between 1 degree of longitude is greatest at the Equator and decreases poleward to zero at the North Pole. So you cannot use degrees of longitude to estimate speed.

NHC track did shift west, as I expected. I think the consensus models will continue to shift west tonight, leading to a more powerful hurricane when Irene hits Cuba and passes west of the Florida peninsula.

So you think this will pass west of the Fla peninsula too?

[ozonepete]

I dont like ths sentence.

A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO TOMORROW IF
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST.

I wouldn't like it either if I lived in PR. It sure says to me that they are not sure at all that it may jog more north.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ConvergenceZone]

Note that it's 1 degree of latitude that = 60 nautical miles. The distance between 1 degree of longitude is greatest at the Equator and decreases poleward to zero at the North Pole. So you cannot use degrees of longitude to estimate speed.

NHC track did shift west, as I expected. I think the consensus models will continue to shift west tonight, leading to a more powerful hurricane when Irene hits Cuba and passes west of the Florida peninsula.

Scary words from WXMAN....

[otowntiger]

Note that it's 1 degree of latitude that = 60 nautical miles. The distance between 1 degree of longitude is greatest at the Equator and decreases poleward to zero at the North Pole. So you cannot use degrees of longitude to estimate speed.

NHC track did shift west, as I expected. I think the consensus models will continue to shift west tonight, leading to a more powerful hurricane when Irene hits Cuba and passes west of the Florida peninsula.

So wxman57 you think it will miss the FL penninsula?

[TBCaneFreak]

Note that it's 1 degree of latitude that = 60 nautical miles. The distance between 1 degree of longitude is greatest at the Equator and decreases poleward to zero at the North Pole. So you cannot use degrees of longitude to estimate speed.

NHC track did shift west, as I expected. I think the consensus models will continue to shift west tonight, leading to a more powerful hurricane when Irene hits Cuba and passes west of the Florida peninsula.

What is your thinking on proximity to "west of Florida Peninsula" are you thinking? Tampa area specifically

[Gustywind]

I dont like ths sentence.

A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO TOMORROW IF
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST.

Luis I thought that was a very interesting sentence. It is almost as if they expecting a northward adjustment. At least that's how it came off to me.

I think you may not know where I am.

Be aware Luis, Irene continues to improving. Be safe and dry.

[SouthDadeFish]

What do you mean? I meant interesting as a bad thing!

SouthDadeFish,what I meant is that I am in Puerto Rico.

Yeah I knew that. I hope all goes well for you! At least you are out of the cone for now.

[Ixolib]

Track shift west a bit?

Looks to be a bit west AND south.....

[cycloneye]

Be aware Luis, Irene continues to improving. Be safe and dry.

Gusty,my family is prepared already for anything Irene may bring as we avoided the last minute rush.

[HeeBGBz]

Note that it's 1 degree of latitude that = 60 nautical miles. The distance between 1 degree of longitude is greatest at the Equator and decreases poleward to zero at the North Pole. So you cannot use degrees of longitude to estimate speed.

NHC track did shift west, as I expected. I think the consensus models will continue to shift west tonight, leading to a more powerful hurricane when Irene hits Cuba and passes west of the Florida peninsula.

I am not liking what you are hinting at Wxman

I'm getting a little antsy. It's going to be an interesting week coming up. The temps in the gulf have got to be outrageous right now.

I hope you guys in the islands are safe through the storm.

[CourierPR]

I think the track will shift west and show it entering the Gom by tommorow night

Expecting it to increase in forward speed abit are ya? 22 mph now. At that rate the GOM is forcast in 4 to 5 days...so we need her to speed up to about 80mph in forward speed...plausable i guess

I meant in the long range official nhc track LOL

What do you base that forecast on?

[AtlanticWind]

As this is still in the formation stage I would be concerned about this forming a little further north, could be a threat to Puerto rico and long range track could shift north

[SouthDadeFish]

After looking at radar from Martinique, I'm thinking the center is farther north than 15.3N....

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?116

[SouthDadeFish]

Anyone have an image of the microwave pass the NHC was talking about in the discussion?

maybe it's this one

Btw, thanks! Recon will definitely be interesting tomorrow.

[Adoquín]

I dont like ths sentence.

A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO TOMORROW IF
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST.

I wouldn't like it either if I lived in PR. It sure says to me that they are not sure at all that it may jog more north.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

or get stronger faster, the current trend, leading to more wnw unless it hits a rock of air to the north.

[Gustywind]

Be aware Luis, Irene continues to improving. Be safe and dry.

Gusty,my family is prepared already for anything Irene may bring as we avoided the last minute rush.

That's a good thing i know that you're always prepared so have a good night and thanks for your daily input and advices

[Adoquín]

Anyone have an image of the microwave pass the NHC was talking about in the discussion?

maybe it's this one

She blossoms.

[wxsouth]

I find the "discussion" over the center shifting north interesting. In fact...the system is evolving very much as the large scale guidance is predicting. For instance, the 18z (and 12z) forecast the low level pressure center to be south of the mid-level (500mb) vort max through midday Sunday before they stack and the real intensification begins. The mid-level vort is actually progged to move straight west just north of Guadaloupe tonight with the low level center moving just north of west a little further to the south. Radar and satellite imagery shows this to be the case.

So while there is a whole lot of hand-wringing on the low-level center reforming farther north and shifting the track farther north...in reality the system is developing as forecast and is on track to follow the forecast path along or just south of southern coast of Hispaniola.

[ConvergenceZone]

Based upon the latest forecast map, it looks like it doesn't have to shift too much further west before it just clips hispanola's western finger. That alone would allow for potentially much more strengthening.... Interesting hours ahead.