ATL: IRENE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1961 Postby rockyman » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:17 pm

Ridge building back in at 114 hours...let's see if it curves back to the NW this time
0 likes   

User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1962 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:17 pm

Image

.....
0 likes   
GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !

bamajammer4eva
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 907
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:21 am
Location: Ozark, AL

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1963 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:17 pm

Ridge building back in though at 108
0 likes   

fox13weather
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 161
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 7:49 pm

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1964 Postby fox13weather » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:17 pm

Slowing down north of Cuba....then turning northeast and missing Florida is not an unreasonable solution....
0 likes   

User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#1965 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:17 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_102l.gif

If thats right........ummmmm uh oh!!!
0 likes   

DIwestender
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 31
Joined: Wed Jul 16, 2008 11:56 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

Re:

#1966 Postby DIwestender » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:18 pm

deltadog03 wrote:Haiti/DR didn't do much (if anything) to it....


I thought these models didn't consider the impact of land interaction when determining strength and because of this we should ignore the intensity? Obviously, I am missing something. Is that "rule" for other models and not this one?
0 likes   

HurricaneWarning92
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 520
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2011 4:33 pm
Location: Pembroke Pines, S. Florida (Lat: 26.00N, Lon: 80.22W)

Re:

#1967 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:18 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:So much for the shift west :lol:


i was thinking the same thing... lol
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

seussianagenda
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 33
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2008 4:54 pm

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1968 Postby seussianagenda » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:18 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Image

108 Hr ...: /



If that high that is situated over NC at 108 makes a little quicker run, could this be pushed up the east coast?
0 likes   

User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1969 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:18 pm

Image

RIP SFL
0 likes   
GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#1970 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:19 pm

GFS 120 hr:

Landfall in South Florida

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1971 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:19 pm

landfall in SFL as signficant cane...

Image
0 likes   

fox13weather
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 161
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 7:49 pm

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1972 Postby fox13weather » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:19 pm

Missing Florida to the east is not an unreasonable solution.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#1973 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:19 pm

right into miami as a hurricane.. about 75 miles east this run... not surprised giving the initial strength and more northern position were inputed
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10155
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1974 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:19 pm

126 HOURS, ON TOP OF ME, YIKES!!! :eek: :eek: :eek:

j/k :lol:
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05… Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re:

#1975 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:19 pm

deltadog03 wrote:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_200_102l.gif

If thats right........ummmmm uh oh!!!


What am I looking at here, delta?
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024

User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

#1976 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:19 pm

Yet again the GFS continues to amaze me with its consistency. :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re:

#1977 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:20 pm

deltadog03 wrote:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_200_102l.gif

If thats right........ummmmm uh oh!!!


For the everyday fans at home what exactly are we looking at here delta???
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1978 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:20 pm

Image

O-o
0 likes   
GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !

User avatar
Tampa_God
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 333
Age: 35
Joined: Wed May 31, 2006 7:27 pm
Location: New Port Richey/Trinity, FL

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#1979 Postby Tampa_God » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:21 pm

I'm kind of surprised of the flip-flop of tracks from different models. One has it going east of FL, one has it going west of FL, another one has it at east of FL again. Kind of dangerous having different models for this storm which could be very dangerous for anyone in Florida. I think it would be best to at least have the stations in Florida advising viewers to keep an eye out. Some will say they're blowing it out of proportion, but better safe than getting slammed.
0 likes   

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

#1980 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Aug 20, 2011 11:21 pm

This so called westward shift has not materialized....at least on the 00Z GFS run. I want to see tonight's GFDL and especially Euro. I have to admit I also thought we would see a small west shift in the GFS. I am giving it another 24 hours. If this west shift does not begin to show in the models, I will get very worried.
0 likes   


Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest