ATL: IRENE - Models

[clfenwi]

NOGAPS showing landfall at 114h.



Full run

[Tampa_God]

I would say if I live anywhere in Florida right now I would start filling up
those cars and vans with gasoline just in case. IMO

Luckily the gas prices have been going down somewhat here. $3.43 though.......

[WeatherEmperor]

GFS and Nogaps have shown there stuff. Now we wait for the GFDL and Euro

[SFLcane]

IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS THAT SHOW LESS LAND INTERACTION...SUCH
AS THE GFDL OR HWRF...HAVE IRENE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND
THAT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY IF THE STORM MOVES ON
THE FAR LEFT OR RIGHT SIDE OF THE FORECAST CONE AND AVOIDS
SIGNIFICANT LAND INTERACTION. OVERALL...GIVEN THE TRACK FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.

[blp]

If the Euro is similar tonight to the GFS I think the NHC is going to need to update that intensity forcast on the 5 day cone and that is going to scare the heck out of a lot of Floridians.

[fci]

O-o

Looks like the title screen for a "South Florida Hurricane Horror Story".

[CajunMama]

Just a reminder that if you post an image, especially a time sensitive image, please upload it before posting it. Refresh yourself with this thread....

Reminder About Posting Images

Thanks and now back to watching Irene!

[Blown Away]

IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS THAT SHOW LESS LAND INTERACTION...SUCH
AS THE GFDL OR HWRF...HAVE IRENE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND
THAT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY IF THE STORM MOVES ON
THE FAR LEFT OR RIGHT SIDE OF THE FORECAST CONE AND AVOIDS
SIGNIFICANT LAND INTERACTION. OVERALL...GIVEN THE TRACK FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.

GFS and HWRF had almost same track.

[maxintensity]

If the Euro is similar tonight to the GFS I think the NHC is going to need to update that intensity forcast on the 5 day cone and that is going to scare the heck out of a lot of Floridians.

In the past when they've needed to substantially increase intensity they do it gradually each update to people dont panic. I agree though a tropical storm is not very likely to verify.

[SFLcane]

IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS THAT SHOW LESS LAND INTERACTION...SUCH
AS THE GFDL OR HWRF...HAVE IRENE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND
THAT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY IF THE STORM MOVES ON
THE FAR LEFT OR RIGHT SIDE OF THE FORECAST CONE AND AVOIDS
SIGNIFICANT LAND INTERACTION. OVERALL...GIVEN THE TRACK FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.

GFS and HWRF had almost same track.

Yup thats why i brought that up.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Wxman is always pretty accurate in predicting these things. If he says gom storm, chances are that's where it will go

Do you live somewhere in the GOM? if so, shouldnt you be a bit more calm that its not taking it over there yet according to the latest run? Seems you are a bit upset...

[Scorpion]

So much for the shift west . How many runs is that in a row with a peninsula hit?

[bella_may]

But its the nogaps, the worst model there is. It had Emily making landfall in Pensacola, what's that tell ya? LOL

[WeatherEmperor]

But its the nogaps, the worst model there is. It had Emily making landfall in Pensacola, what's that tell ya? LOL

So how do you explain the Nogaps being almost identical in track as the superior GFS and Euro? Not only that, it has consistently been bringing Irene to South Florida for days now....like the GFS and Euro. How do you explain that?

[fci]

The old saying goes "the trend is your friend". With friends like the GFS who needs enemies. The consistency and "the trend" is downright scary for South Florida and especially for emergency planners in South Florida. I would anticipate that some major decisions will have to be made come Monday night or Tuesday morning. Evacuation from the Keys can take quite some time and with an approach from the South like this there is no where to hide. With that being said I do believe that the models are ramping this thing up a bit too much. Time will tell, but the time is slipping out of the hourglass and we are in 4-5 day range now which makes the GFS and the Euro that much more reliable.

SFT

Quick OT about evacuations. I Promise only one comment since the thread was hijacked this morning about the subject.

Keys can evacuate rather quickly as they are experienced in doing so.
Southeast Florida evacuation is really east of 95 so most inland areas are safe for evacuees from the coast and people living west of 95 usually are not evacuated.

I apologize in advance for going slightly OT but it was brought up and I think my comment is appropriate.

[maxintensity]

But its the nogaps, the worst model there is. It had Emily making landfall in Pensacola, what's that tell ya? LOL

So how do you explain the Nogaps being almost identical in track as the superior GFS and Euro? Not only that, it has consistently been bringing Irene to South Florida for days now....like the GFS and Euro. How do you explain that?

blind squirrel finding a nut...plus it still might be wrong

[TBCaneFreak]

So much for the shift west . How many runs is that in a row with a peninsula hit?

1 QUADRILLION

[Aric Dunn]

So much for the shift west . How many runs is that in a row with a peninsula hit?

probably near 15 or more.. lost count lol

[WeatherEmperor]

But its the nogaps, the worst model there is. It had Emily making landfall in Pensacola, what's that tell ya? LOL

So how do you explain the Nogaps being almost identical in track as the superior GFS and Euro? Not only that, it has consistently been bringing Irene to South Florida for days now....like the GFS and Euro. How do you explain that?

blind squirrel finding a nut...plus it still might be wrong

So what you are saying is that the GFS and Euro are just as blind. Why are those not blind squirrels? They are showing the same solution as Nogaps.

[Ivanhater]

Well Canadian shifted east