Global model runs discussion

[HurricaneFan]

It seems like the models are showing Tropical Waves moving off Africa after 98L are moving off at a very high latitude,Why is that?

[blp]

Miami Storm Tracker check your PM. Thanks

[Blown Away]

OFF TOPIC: 00z GFS 384 hours shows a nice cane just NE of the Caribbean and the ridge appears to be building. lala land, but showing action!

[cycloneye]

OFF TOPIC: 00z GFS 384 hours shows a nice cane just NE of the Caribbean and the ridge appears to be building. lala land, but showing action!

I moved this from the Irene models threads to here.

[Macrocane]

Not only shows a major north of the Caribbean, it also shows two other systems that look fairly good.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

that one near the yucatan seems headed for west florida if it is strong enough to feel that weakness/trough. no strong steering currents where it is though, so I would suspect a gradual drift north as it intensifies. if it takes too long, the weakness lifts out or pushes northeast, leaving the storm meandering in the gulf, slowly moving north into the central GOM coast.

just IMO, see disclaimer

[lonelymike]

OFF TOPIC: 00z GFS 384 hours shows a nice cane just NE of the Caribbean and the ridge appears to be building. lala land, but showing action!

I moved this from the Irene models threads to here.

I see the TX sewer death ridge is still around. Oughta to make Rock giddy with excitement

[KWT]

Just a few hints of a strong system in the mid Atlantic towards the start of Seotember..

Obviously Climo does suggest that but the location each time isn't that different so its probably the same feature the last three runs have clocked.

[Kohlecane]

OFF TOPIC: 00z GFS 384 hours shows a nice cane just NE of the Caribbean and the ridge appears to be building. lala land, but showing action!

I moved this from the Irene models threads to here.

I see the TX sewer death ridge is still around. Oughta to make Rock giddy with excitement

wow still holding strong, what is it now day 90

[northjaxpro]

I tell you, my heart just goes out to all of my fellow Storm2k members out in Texas. The death ridge just does not want to loosen its grip. I have never seen anything quite like it. It is insane how that ridge has parked itself over Texas all summer long.

As for the 384 hr GFS run, well, it looks like we will certainly have more CV systems coming down the pike going into the first part of September, which is to be expected since we are approaching the peak of the hurricane season.

[ROCK]

that ridge will weaken soon enough....glad to see the GFS starting to realize its getting close to the peak of the season....

[Ptarmigan]

that ridge will weaken soon enough....glad to see the GFS starting to realize its getting close to the peak of the season....

Does this mean more rain for Texas?

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS is a mess. Always has been off. Gets lucky occasionally.

[HurricaneFan]

So what does the models say about the Tropical Wave just off of Africa and the one behind it?

[Scorpion]

Long way out.. but @ 180 the GFS shows another significant threat to the islands

[Wx_Warrior]

From JB:

Gulf opens for hurricane business Sep 1-7, then probably shuts down. Lets see if others see that too as time goes on

[HurricaneFan]

Long way out.. but @ 180 the GFS shows another significant threat to the islands

Is that the Tropical Wave just off the coast of Africa right now?
And do the other models agree on the track?

[lonelymike]

From JB:

Gulf opens for hurricane business Sep 1-7, then probably shuts down. Lets see if others see that too as time goes on

Wonder what his meterological reasoning is?

[Patrick99]

Do any of the long range models break down the "Texas Death Ridge?" Good lord I'm looking at the Central US water vapor loop, I don't think I've ever seen such a sharp well-defined ridge. And look at the way it's helping to pump the EC trough....there's no way a storm shoves into S. Florida or the Gulf as long as that ridge stands, IMO. It looks like a freakin' permanent gyre.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

From JB:

Gulf opens for hurricane business Sep 1-7, then probably shuts down. Lets see if others see that too as time goes on

Wonder what he sees that only keeps it open for business for the 7 days, then shuts it down. Texas death ridge rebuilding again? If he is right so much for the predictions of the gulf having a bad year this season. If I remember correctly Louisiana was the second most likely state behind Florida to get hit by a hurricane this year. Sounds like if it doesnt happen early on we could very well be in the clear for the rest of season. By October cold front always turn any gulf storms east towards Florida. Yes I know there is always a chance but going off past history and climatology. Just so far the gulf is not living up to the pre-season hype.