ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

On hdobs now.

[NDG]

GFS misses Hispaniola to the north at 60 hrs.. not good.

Yeah, according to the GFS Emily would have a good 48 hrs over water before possibly impacting SE FL, not good!

[tolakram]

[hurricanedude]

http://www.1070knth.com/

His tweet says he will be live so just go to this site and click on the listen live tab at 1eastern/ noon central.

[brunota2003]

56 knots Flight Level * .85 reduction = 47.6 knots. SMFR supports 48 knots as well, and assuming they didn't sample the strongest winds, I could see a bump to 50 knots.

Reduction is .80 at the elevation so it supports 44.8 knots. I'd bump it to 50 kt though based on the SFMR, deepening pressure and missing the core.

Ah...I wasn't sure of the reduction, I don't have it written down anywhere, knew it was somewhere around there!

[jabman98]

Yeah, according to the GFS Emily would have a good 48 hrs over water before possibly impacting SE FL, not good!

Emily?

[Frank2]

Might be a track somewhat similar to Floyd (1999) - that turned NNW just 300 miles east of here...

Frank

[Tampa_God]

Yeah, according to the GFS Emily would have a good 48 hrs over water before possibly impacting SE FL, not good!

Emily?

She came back, wants another go at this.

[NDG]

GFS 12z run says not over SE FL.

[Dave]

CORRECTED VDM #12

000
URNT12 KNHC 211605 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 21/15:28:50Z
B. 16 deg 55 min N
063 deg 08 min W
C. 850 mb 1473 m
D. 34 kt
E. 099 deg 28 nm
F. 189 deg 29 kt
G. 104 deg 32 nm
H. 1007 mb
I. 17 C / 1525 m
J. 17 C / 1523 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 08
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF300 0209A IRENE OB 12 CCA
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 56 KT NE QUAD 15:44:00Z
;

[Dave]

DECODED VDM #12

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 16:05Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 15:28:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°55'N 63°08'W (16.9167N 63.1333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 219 miles (352 km) to the ESE (118°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,473m (4,833ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 34kts (~ 39.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the E (99°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 189° at 29kts (From the S at ~ 33.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the ESE (104°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 6 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 15:44:00Z

[Aric Dunn]

there really funny now.

[Dave]

378
URNT15 KNHC 211614
AF300 0209A IRENE HDOB 36 20110821
160430 1813N 06151W 8458 01545 //// +164 //// 134046 048 043 006 05
160500 1813N 06153W 8424 01573 //// +173 //// 131045 046 031 001 05
160530 1813N 06155W 8429 01567 //// +170 //// 132041 042 034 001 01
160600 1813N 06157W 8436 01561 //// +170 //// 132043 044 035 000 01
160630 1813N 06159W 8427 01567 //// +171 //// 124040 043 033 000 01
160700 1814N 06201W 8430 01564 //// +172 //// 125044 044 035 000 01
160730 1814N 06203W 8430 01565 //// +172 //// 125046 047 031 001 01
160800 1814N 06205W 8424 01570 //// +177 //// 124043 045 033 000 01
160830 1814N 06207W 8433 01559 //// +180 //// 126043 044 033 000 01
160900 1814N 06209W 8429 01565 //// +175 //// 124046 047 034 000 01
160930 1814N 06209W 8429 01565 //// +171 //// 125046 047 034 001 01
161000 1814N 06213W 8421 01572 //// +170 //// 126046 047 034 002 01
161030 1814N 06215W 8432 01562 //// +168 //// 127045 046 036 001 01
161100 1814N 06218W 8430 01563 //// +167 //// 125045 046 036 001 01
161130 1814N 06220W 8430 01562 //// +170 //// 124046 046 038 000 05
161200 1814N 06222W 8429 01564 //// +170 //// 126047 047 039 002 01
161230 1814N 06224W 8432 01562 //// +170 //// 128047 048 038 001 01
161300 1814N 06227W 8430 01563 //// +169 //// 127047 048 038 001 05
161330 1814N 06229W 8429 01564 //// +169 //// 125048 048 039 001 05
161400 1814N 06231W 8429 01562 //// +166 //// 125048 048 039 001 01
$$
;

[tolakram]

[Aric Dunn]

please go through the real center.. lol

[mf_dolphin]

Looking at the WV loop Irene doesn't look so good. That mau be a saving factor no matter where she tracks.

[Frank2]

Perhaps the troughs are beginning to influence the model runs...

[Frank2]

Looking at the WV loop Irene doesn't look so good. That mau be a saving factor no matter where she tracks.

I was going to mention that but I'm in enough pain as it is (lol), though it seems what's left of the TUTT mentioned yesterday might be impinging on it's outflow to the NW, as well as some dry air to it's south...

Frank

[alienstorm]

Dry air intrusion starting to take a toll - plainly seen in high resolution visible pictures

[Dave]

947
URNT15 KNHC 211624
AF300 0209A IRENE HDOB 37 20110821
161430 1814N 06233W 8430 01561 //// +166 //// 123046 047 040 000 05
161500 1814N 06236W 8430 01563 //// +166 //// 123046 047 040 001 05
161530 1814N 06238W 8429 01563 //// +167 //// 122047 047 040 001 05
161600 1814N 06240W 8432 01559 //// +167 //// 121046 046 041 000 05
161630 1814N 06242W 8429 01559 //// +165 //// 120046 047 040 001 01
161700 1814N 06245W 8433 01556 //// +163 //// 118046 047 039 001 05
161730 1814N 06247W 8430 01557 //// +165 //// 115047 048 037 002 01
161800 1814N 06249W 8428 01559 //// +168 //// 114047 048 036 000 01
161830 1814N 06252W 8432 01555 //// +165 //// 113049 049 037 000 05
161900 1814N 06254W 8430 01556 //// +165 //// 111048 049 036 001 01
161930 1814N 06254W 8430 01556 //// +165 //// 109048 049 036 000 05
162000 1814N 06258W 8429 01556 //// +166 //// 108047 047 042 015 05
162030 1814N 06301W 8433 01552 //// +166 //// 107047 047 /// /// 05
162100 1814N 06303W 8432 01552 //// +159 //// 103048 049 /// /// 05
162130 1814N 06305W 8430 01553 //// +162 //// 105046 047 037 003 05
162200 1814N 06308W 8426 01558 //// +159 //// 103048 048 040 003 01
162230 1814N 06310W 8428 01555 //// +164 //// 102049 050 042 003 01
162300 1814N 06312W 8436 01546 //// +162 //// 100048 049 044 005 01
162330 1814N 06314W 8428 01555 //// +161 //// 100048 049 043 006 01
162400 1814N 06317W 8425 01556 //// +150 //// 100051 052 042 008 01
$$
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