ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

Are they heading home?

[Aric Dunn]

They are not acending yet...?

should turn south next set.

[blazess556]

They are so close to St. Croix that they should be able to do one more center pass.

[cycloneye]

Looking at the WV loop Irene doesn't look so good. That mau be a saving factor no matter where she tracks.

Good news about that. That could save us from a hurricane here.

[otowntiger]

Looking at the WV loop Irene doesn't look so good. That mau be a saving factor no matter where she tracks.

Yep, she's never looked too menacing, and I have felt all along that while it seems the future course of Irene is pretty well known (within the margin of error) but her intensity is the real issue and no one knows about that unfortunately.

[Dave]

032
URNT15 KNHC 211634
AF300 0209A IRENE HDOB 38 20110821
162430 1814N 06319W 8435 01546 //// +145 //// 098052 052 043 009 01
162500 1814N 06321W 8433 01546 //// +138 //// 093051 052 042 008 01
162530 1814N 06323W 8433 01550 //// +156 //// 091048 049 042 003 01
162600 1814N 06325W 8431 01552 //// +156 //// 087043 045 043 004 01
162630 1814N 06327W 8432 01553 //// +158 //// 092045 047 042 004 01
162700 1814N 06330W 8426 01558 //// +159 //// 090046 047 041 005 01
162730 1814N 06332W 8425 01557 //// +153 //// 085046 047 041 006 01
162800 1814N 06334W 8429 01553 //// +137 //// 085048 049 042 007 01
162830 1814N 06336W 8430 01553 //// +134 //// 082047 048 040 005 01
162900 1814N 06338W 8433 01550 //// +137 //// 081048 048 043 013 01
162930 1814N 06340W 8422 01562 //// +139 //// 073050 052 041 011 01
163000 1814N 06342W 8430 01552 //// +140 //// 073047 047 044 013 01
163030 1814N 06345W 8427 01556 //// +129 //// 074048 051 045 014 01
163100 1814N 06347W 8428 01557 //// +127 //// 070050 053 044 012 01
163130 1814N 06349W 8425 01559 //// +129 //// 074048 049 042 007 01
163200 1815N 06351W 8430 01556 //// +143 //// 073048 050 039 004 05
163230 1814N 06353W 8425 01559 //// +154 //// 072045 046 039 002 05
163300 1812N 06354W 8431 01551 //// +147 //// 070043 045 041 002 01
163330 1811N 06356W 8433 01548 //// +148 //// 074045 047 042 005 01
163400 1809N 06357W 8424 01557 //// +141 //// 067048 049 043 006 01
$$
;

[hurricaneCW]

I wouldn't underestimate her, I really think she could explode at any time, I wouldn't be surprised to see a massive convective burst over the center later today or tonight.

[bucman1]

The NHC track takes Irene across S.Florida nw up towards the west coast. Although I haven't heard much discussion about that is that still plauisible?

[dmbthestone]

Is the west coast of Florida looking like less of an option as time goes on?

[Dave]

Everyone please take your comments about recon over to the recon discussion thread so we can keep data & graphics moving consistently on this thread. Thanks!

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111543&start=40

[brunota2003]

Looking at NASA GHCC, there was convection just beginning to pop over the dry spot where the center is (I think). She has the look of a storm getting ready to go after hurricane status, just needs to straighten out her convection first.

[Vortex]

The 15Z discussion mentions "a couple of troughs" with one currently dropping SE through TN, so we'll see how they influences Irene's track:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

of course here in South Florida we are hoping and hopefully praying for the best, but either way it'll all work out...

Frank

Frank,

I've always respected your expertise and experience. In your opnion, how serious of a threat do you expect Irene to be for SE FL. Thanks in advance.

[Frank2]

Intensity forecasting is the one great unknown in meteorology, and might always be...

[tolakram]

[Aric Dunn]

The convection will come back very soon.

[Aric Dunn]

really are they going to go around the center again ..
really....

[tolakram]

Convection already refiring.

[painkillerr]

Heavy rain in St. Thomas

[Aric Dunn]

Convection already refiring.

in your image.. here is the center..

[Frank2]

Frank,

I've always respected your expertise and experience. In your opnion, how serious of a threat do you expect Irene to be for SE FL. Thanks in advance.

Wow - I was way wrong yesterday in thinking it wouldn't develop as quickly as it did (lol), but again intensity forecasting is a problem, even for the Pro Mets, so guess I shouldn't feel too bad...

Being ill at the present (and for the past few months) I'm a bit concerned because to evacuate would not be an easy thing for me, so I'd say just check your homeland security evacuation plan, just in case, but in praying about it do feel a peace that I sure didn't feel before Hurricane Andrew (my rented house was "broken in half") - in fact, I evacuated just before Wilma (didn't get a peace then, either) and that was for the best - my poor neighbors were without water and power for 5 days, while I stayed at a hotel in Central Florida...

The NHC is mentioning the troughs, and the model runs are beginning (since last evening) to shift to the right, so we'll see what happens, so between the TUTT remnants, dry air and the troughs, and God's hand, we'll be all right...

Frank