ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[brunota2003]

What happens once the winds start kicking up, how long with they suspend recon flights out of St. Croix for? And what happens if there is a flight in the air, where do they get diverted to?

[NDG]

I have centered this radar loop where I think Emily's center is near.
Look out Luis, 50+ mph wind gusts with the squalls to her NW are approaching P.R!

[otowntiger]

Intensity forecasting is the one great unknown in meteorology, and might always be...

Yes, I agree. I wish that there would be some improvement in this area to keep up with all the advancements in track over the years , but I haven't seen any.

[Dave]

310
URNT15 KNHC 211644
AF300 0209A IRENE HDOB 39 20110821
163430 1808N 06358W 8438 01542 //// +152 //// 062039 041 041 003 01
163500 1807N 06400W 8419 01564 //// +135 //// 060039 041 043 008 01
163530 1805N 06401W 8436 01542 //// +154 //// 069043 044 043 005 01
163600 1804N 06403W 8436 01547 //// +161 //// 065042 043 040 001 05
163630 1802N 06404W 8424 01558 //// +160 //// 059042 043 040 001 05
163700 1801N 06405W 8426 01556 //// +160 //// 056042 043 038 002 01
163730 1759N 06407W 8437 01545 //// +154 //// 046041 043 040 005 01
163800 1758N 06408W 8429 01553 //// +158 //// 056045 045 040 004 01
163830 1756N 06410W 8427 01554 //// +159 //// 053044 045 041 004 01
163900 1755N 06411W 8429 01552 //// +152 //// 056045 045 042 004 01
163930 1753N 06413W 8431 01550 //// +150 //// 053045 045 043 006 01
164000 1752N 06414W 8433 01548 //// +161 //// 049044 046 042 005 05
164030 1750N 06414W 8423 01559 //// +159 //// 049041 042 039 006 05
164100 1749N 06413W 8435 01547 //// +164 //// 050039 039 039 005 01
164130 1748N 06412W 8428 01554 //// +137 //// 049039 039 041 006 01
164200 1747N 06410W 8425 01554 //// +135 //// 045038 038 039 007 01
164230 1746N 06409W 8423 01554 //// +158 //// 047039 040 037 001 01
164300 1744N 06408W 8429 01547 //// +163 //// 044037 040 035 000 01
164330 1743N 06407W 8429 01546 //// +161 //// 036037 039 036 001 01
164400 1742N 06406W 8424 01552 //// +166 //// 034038 039 037 006 01
$$
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[ConvergenceZone]

Dry air intrusion starting to take a toll - plainly seen in high resolution visible pictures

I agree, and it's possible that if it takes the track the NHC is forecasting, it may only emerge as a weak tropical storm or depression after it comes off land or it may kill it completely.... Thank goodness this doesn't seem to be the horrible monster that the models were making it out to be.....Although there could still be some devastating flooding.

[Sanibel]

I don't like that Dvorak. It reminds me of a storm with bite. From that look I fear what it might do past the islands on its way to Florida...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

[hurricaneCW]

Dry air intrusion starting to take a toll - plainly seen in high resolution visible pictures

I agree, and it's possible that if it takes the track the NHC is forecasting, it may only emerge as a weak tropical storm or depression after it comes off land or it may kill it completely.... Thank goodness this doesn't seem to be the horrible monster that the models were making it out to be.....Although there could still be some devastating flooding.

That's way too soon to tell, for all we know this could be a major in a few days and it could be the monster the models show or showed.

[Aric Dunn]

seriously.. cant believe they are going to miss the center again..

[Dave]

What happens once the winds start kicking up, how long with they suspend recon flights out of St. Croix for? And what happens if there is a flight in the air, where do they get diverted to?

Believe they've landed in Barbadoes before, if it's clear or will return to Homestead FL (if they can't make Keesler) instead of St Croix V.I.

[KWT]

Dry air intrusion starting to take a toll - plainly seen in high resolution visible pictures

I agree, and it's possible that if it takes the track the NHC is forecasting, it may only emerge as a weak tropical storm or depression after it comes off land or it may kill it completely.... Thank goodness this doesn't seem to be the horrible monster that the models were making it out to be.....Although there could still be some devastating flooding.

I'm FAR more worried now then I was 12hrs ago. ts not going to take the track of last nights GFS with this center further north and instead going to emerge off Hispaniola avoiding Cuba...then it might have a stretch of 2-3 days heading N/NNW...and that my friend in the atmosphere progged is good enough for a 3/4 landfalling hurricane...

[dmbthestone]

Curious as to if the South Florida media has began covering this?

[brunota2003]

I think they might actually reach the center this time...the winds are in the right direction for the direction they are heading.

[Scorpion]

Dry air intrusion starting to take a toll - plainly seen in high resolution visible pictures

I agree, and it's possible that if it takes the track the NHC is forecasting, it may only emerge as a weak tropical storm or depression after it comes off land or it may kill it completely.... Thank goodness this doesn't seem to be the horrible monster that the models were making it out to be.....Although there could still be some devastating flooding.

Huh? If anything the trend is for a stronger hurricane because it wouldn't go over Cuba.

[Aric Dunn]

I think they might actually reach the center this time...the winds are in the right direction for the direction they are heading.

Idk looks like they will pass to west of it slightly ..

[T'Bonz]

Curious as to if the South Florida media has began covering this?

A few days ago, actually, when it was just an invest.

Given that it's a Sunday, we won't hear jack until the 6 PM news. Must have the worthless, dull partisan politics on news channels instead.

[Aric Dunn]

I think they might actually reach the center this time...the winds are in the right direction for the direction they are heading.

Idk looks like they will pass to west of it slightly ..

In this image is the center.. they are too far west.

[brunota2003]

Here's to hoping they can make some corrections as they are coming in!

[Aric Dunn]

Here's to hoping they can make some corrections as they are coming in!

although the satellite overlay could be off ?

[Dave]

822
URNT15 KNHC 211654
AF300 0209A IRENE HDOB 40 20110821
164430 1741N 06404W 8429 01544 //// +148 //// 035039 040 041 009 01
164500 1740N 06403W 8424 01550 //// +141 //// 041034 035 048 015 01
164530 1739N 06402W 8434 01535 //// +155 //// 040033 034 039 003 01
164600 1737N 06401W 8432 01536 //// +156 //// 040030 031 037 001 01
164630 1736N 06359W 8427 01540 //// +151 //// 042032 032 037 002 01
164700 1735N 06358W 8431 01535 //// +161 //// 044034 036 035 002 01
164730 1734N 06357W 8430 01537 //// +165 //// 042033 035 035 002 01
164800 1733N 06356W 8424 01541 //// +161 //// 040031 032 036 002 01
164830 1732N 06354W 8429 01533 //// +156 //// 037029 029 037 001 01
164900 1730N 06353W 8434 01526 //// +164 //// 033027 027 038 001 01
164930 1729N 06352W 8429 01530 //// +157 //// 029028 030 037 002 01
165000 1728N 06351W 8425 01531 //// +152 //// 034030 031 039 002 01
165030 1727N 06349W 8432 01522 //// +158 //// 033032 034 039 005 05
165100 1726N 06348W 8435 01517 //// +160 //// 031030 031 040 005 01
165130 1724N 06347W 8427 01523 //// +162 //// 028028 029 041 006 01
165200 1723N 06346W 8427 01518 //// +157 //// 026027 029 043 008 01
165230 1722N 06344W 8435 01508 //// +146 //// 020028 029 043 007 01
165300 1721N 06343W 8421 01518 //// +161 //// 013024 027 043 005 01
165330 1720N 06342W 8432 01502 //// +178 //// 344020 022 043 005 01
165400 1718N 06340W 8436 01498 //// +184 //// 322020 024 042 005 01
$$
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