ATL: IRENE - Models

[KWT]

Wow Ivan -- imagined if it missed the United States all together? Would that not be something??

There is as much of a chance of it missing the united states as there is of it making landfall. The east coast trough forecasted to be along the east coast later in the week looks strong enough to turn Irene northeast away from Florida.

I'd be frankly asmazed if it missed all of the US...the set-up is for an uipper trough but its not quite quick enough nor is it quite deep enough to do the job looking at most of the models.

I can buy the idea of a N motion through Bahamas and into Ga/SC...I'd be doubtful for now about a recurve...

Given the CMC had this in the Caribbean this time yesterday, not gonna put any trust in it.

Now if the 12z ECM does similar, maybe a different story....

GFS looks good this last run IMO...

[blp]

Misses the entire east coast through 144 hours...maybe brushing the outer banks

and the Canadian's accuracy so far this year, is it good? I don't know why I am even asking. lol I know it will probably all change again before we know it!

Yea, it is a second tier model behind the big two and is performing behind the NOGAPS with this system so far, so that should say enough.

[Ivanhater]

HWRF way east as well..missing Florida as well.....big shift east today

[brunota2003]

Here's a question...which model has done the best so far with the short term (out to 48 or 72 hours), with this system?

[KWT]

you mentioned that yesterday. excellent job of placing that option on the table. please share your thoughts more frequently:)

All depends on that upper trough, I'd personally say 10% chance of a total recurve, 50% chance of SC/GA hit and 40% chance for Florida...that be what I'd give it for now.

PS, HWRF goes up the Bahamas FWIW, may well miss to the east as well.

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[bella_may]

UKMET still in the Gulf

WOW. That scares me that its being that consistent

[gatorcane]

Well if these trends with the models continue, could be yet another trough to save Florida from a big hurricane....

The trend is our friend

[Ivanhater]

Could be a real doozy for South Carolina

[KWT]

HWRF SLAMS SC...no recurve on this run...

Gatorcane, looks better for Florida, or at least southern Florida, probably much worse for the east coast in general.

[Portastorm]

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[KWT]

Here's a question...which model has done the best so far with the short term (out to 48 or 72 hours), with this system?

ECM has done a very good job thus far, as you'd expect. Probably been the best overall so far.

12z run is going to be most interesting, I personally suspect it'll go for a GA/SC hit.

[Patrick99]

Gee, we "get lucky" again, I guess. Although I'm not sure any of the models handle interaction with land very well. I think it could get ripped apart somewhat by Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, and make it head further west than it otherwise would - scoring a direct hit on SFL, albeit as a weaker system.

[gatorcane]

Gee, we "get lucky" again, I guess. Although I'm not sure any of the models handle interaction with land very well. I think it could get ripped apart somewhat by Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, and make it head further west than it otherwise would - scoring a direct hit on SFL, albeit as a weaker system.

Yeah looks that way.

You have to think the Euro will be east of Florida in the Bahamas but I don't want to think how strong it is going to make this system.

Of course watch the Euro stay over South FL......(I really think it is going to shift right also)

[Scorpion]

Gee, we "get lucky" again, I guess. Although I'm not sure any of the models handle interaction with land very well. I think it could get ripped apart somewhat by Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, and make it head further west than it otherwise would - scoring a direct hit on SFL, albeit as a weaker system.

It is way too early to say that. The GFS has a tendency to underdo ridges and overdo troughs.

[Rgv20]

Looking at a consensus of 12zHWRF, 12zGFS, and 0zECMWF it looks like Irene may be a threat late next week to NE Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Within the whole margin of accuracy of the model consensus, we are going to really be using the cone for irene until tuesday for sure. Big bend of fl to OBX still in play, however the shift east seems plausible with no major synoptic feature at this point. Climo does have it's uses even in that age of improved models.

[WeatherEmperor]

FWIW.....The 12Z GFDL takes Irene through the central keys and skirts southwest florida a few miles offshore near Naples, FL. Just a very very small shift east....

[gatorcane]

12Z GFDL 54 hours. That Texas ridge is huge!

[KWT]

Yeah looks that way.

You have to think the Euro will be east of Florida in the Bahamas but I don't want to think how strong it is going to make this system.

Of course watch the Euro stay over South FL......(I really think it is going to shift right also)

To be fair the ECM is inline with most models on its 00z run, so yeah may well be a slight shift east probably towards GA/SC.

The key to see is whether it continues to slightly bend back the system to the NNW by 120hrs like the GFS and its 00z run did.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS 90 hours, deepening system headed towards FL straits / South Florida. Big weakness right over the Florida peninsula, its going to hit it you would think: