ATL: IRENE - Models

[otowntiger]

[quote="NDG"]18z early tropical models, they keep trending to the right.



I would assume that to be expected considering the northward relocation of the center.

[blp]

LOL all of the sudden people are taking these model runs like they are the gospel just yesterday some of the models had this in the gulf.. I gurantee you they will change again.. its going to be a close call for Florida no matter how you look at it.

Florida's been under the gun by all these models (sans the UKMET) for a week. No reason to think it's going to miss us now.

I thought the ECMWF would be more east. Wouldn't take much to bring it right through South Florida on that ECMWF fun, well within the track guidance error for that model.

Yes, and the biggest risk to the entire forecast is the land interaction. Those that have been on this board for a while have seen some erratic movements when land interaction comes into play. This is by no means a straight up forecast. There is much higher degree of uncertainty than normal IMO...

[gatorcane]

Tightly clustered just east of Florida, TVCN track now just east of South Florida.

Pretty significant shift east today I must admit....

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[ROCK]

I thought the ECMWF would be more east. Wouldn't take much to bring it right through South Florida on that ECMWF fun, well within the track guidance error for that model.

I think it is a touch east but not much...

The forecast set-up aloft from the GFS/ECM at the moment suggest nearly no chance of a recurve. Still time for that to change I have to admit but we are getting close to that time when the broad set-up should be fairly well modelled.

ECM probably is very close to Hugo in strength!

930's would be cat 4 maybe a low end 5.....would this be one of the few that made landfall as a 4 or 5? interesting EURO run and I agree with it for now....

[OuterBanker]

Interesting, just ran cities overdue on weather channel last night. Of Course Savannah was one of them. It has been a while since Charleston too (a few were predicted to hit Charleston but hit NC instead). The overdue people will have a heyday. At least the models are.. still leaving us out of it so far.

[NDG]

The Carolinas are in the bulls eye now, what a difference from 24 hrs ago!

[BigB0882]

LOL all of the sudden people are taking these model runs like they are the gospel just yesterday some of the models had this in the gulf.. I gurantee you they will change again.. its going to be a close call for Florida no matter how you look at it.

I think the difference is that we now have Recon data in these models where we didn't before. Also, the models have shifted East a little on each run for the past couple of runs and a lot on the latest run so there definitely appears to be a trend and it isn't in just one model, it is in ALL of them. Lastly, we are getting closer and closer to landfall and with each passing hour the certainty goes a little higher. If this was 10 days out no one would be taking it too seriously.

[ROCK]

if it landfalls in SC at that intensity can you imagine it riding that East coast...probably still be a hurricane up in NYC...

[thundercam96]

Why Is'nt the NHC Issuing The 5- Day Uncertinty cone Yet?

[brunota2003]

It's not 5 pm EDT yet...that is when the next complete advisory package comes out.

[hurricaneCW]

Could this be a rare east coast (north of Florida) major hurricane? There's always the possibility of a track further west again but we should see more accuracy today than yesterday so maybe S.C. will be the target.

[thundercam96]

It's not 5 pm EDT yet...that is when the next complete advisory package comes out.

Thanks

[Bocadude85]

Why Is'nt the NHC Issuing The 5- Day Uncertinty cone Yet?

The next advisory does not come out until 5pm

[thundercam96]

Why Is'nt the NHC Issuing The 5- Day Uncertinty cone Yet?

The next advisory does not come out until 5pm

Thanks.

[chris_fit]

LOL all of the sudden people are taking these model runs like they are the gospel just yesterday some of the models had this in the gulf.. I gurantee you they will change again.. its going to be a close call for Florida no matter how you look at it.

I think the difference is that we now have Recon data in these models where we didn't before. Also, the models have shifted East a little on each run for the past couple of runs and a lot on the latest run so there definitely appears to be a trend and it isn't in just one model, it is in ALL of them. Lastly, we are getting closer and closer to landfall and with each passing hour the certainty goes a little higher. If this was 10 days out no one would be taking it too seriously.

I believe the Gulfstream IV has not flown yet, therefore no upper atmospheric data yet (from recon)

[maxintensity]

if it landfalls in SC at that intensity can you imagine it riding that East coast...probably still be a hurricane up in NYC...

Especially given how wind fields typically expand after landfall. This could a one for the ages.

[CrazyC83]

SHIPS doesn't even bring it to hurricane, but only due to land interaction. Land will be the intensity guide here.

[CrazyC83]

I thought the ECMWF would be more east. Wouldn't take much to bring it right through South Florida on that ECMWF fun, well within the track guidance error for that model.

I think it is a touch east but not much...

The forecast set-up aloft from the GFS/ECM at the moment suggest nearly no chance of a recurve. Still time for that to change I have to admit but we are getting close to that time when the broad set-up should be fairly well modelled.

ECM probably is very close to Hugo in strength!

930's would be cat 4 maybe a low end 5.....would this be one of the few that made landfall as a 4 or 5? interesting EURO run and I agree with it for now....

930s at that latitude would be in the 110-120 kt range most likely.

[brunota2003]

The first G-IV flight is scheduled for tomorrow evening/night. With another one following Tuesday morning, and the possibility of 2 more after that.

[KWT]

Tightly clustered just east of Florida, TVCN track now just east of South Florida.

Pretty significant shift east today I must admit....

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

Yeah solid agreement, NHC will shift eastwards but it'll have big implications to the strength forecast of the next advisory, suspect they may go a good category mhigher next time round!