ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[brunota2003]

Well, I did horrible. Too much land interaction, and then the system sped up and buried itself. But that is for the better, would rather a 50 or 55 knot TS hit, than a 75 to 85 knot hurricane.

[BZSTORM]

ok sorry for not following through while storm landed was tied up trying to finish some work in case we got blackout. Ok so far reports of damage not too bad. at 10.30am a freak tornado hit Crooked Tree Village which is North West of Belize City but in swamp land, one house demolished and another damaged, one car was trashed by tree slung at it by the tornado. BZ Met says it was spawned from thunder head in feederband, these ppl never seen water spout let alone tornado before, so scared them to bits. Sadly its also levelled allot of the cashew trees which are the main cash crop for the village. Reports so far indicate the areas affected mostly by the landfall is dangriga, hopkins & sittee river (south from dangriga). Damage not really reported yet, trees down is mostly what I've been hearing.
We just had heavy rain and approx 10-15 knt winds on peninsula about hour before landfall. Punta Gorda only had light rain and reg winds for this time year. A friend who has wind speed meter in her house which is on lagoonside of Placencia village posted on FB that she recorded peak of 15mph during the roughest weather. Rain drizzle now stopped still overcast but we got no major rain here. Waiting for all clear now, only Belize city north has been given all clear by NEMO so far. Radar shows clear for us its all heading inland, in fact looks like it will be in Guatemala in next few hours, but cancun now looks to be getting some serious tail end weather. Thanks to everyone for ur support while tracking this system.

[tolakram]

Glad to hear you're ok BZ!

[BZSTORM]

Flooding is now the issue, but thats not normally as destructive as our neighbours who get mudslides. And flash floods happen rarely thankfully.

[supercane]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 202036
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
400 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

THE CENTER OF HARVEY MADE LANDFALL NEAR DANGRIGA TOWN BELIZE NEAR
1800 UTC WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 50 KT. JUST BEFORE
LANDFALL...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED
63-KT WINDS AT 850 MB AND AN ATTEMPT TO FORM AN EYEWALL. SINCE
LANDFALL...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE SHOW LESS
CURVATURE IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE
CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45
KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF HARVEY
SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

HARVEY SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES BELIZE AND GUATEMALA AND
MOVES INTO MEXICO...AND IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 17.2N 88.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 21/0600Z 17.4N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 21/1800Z 17.7N 92.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 22/0600Z 17.9N 94.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT33 KNHC 202034
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
400 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...HARVEY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 88.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WSW OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR HONDURAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR GUATEMALA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.8 WEST. HARVEY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL
MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER BELIZE THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS NORTHERN
GUATEMALA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER
INLAND...AND HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BELIZE AND
NORTHERN GUATEMALA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NEAR THE CENTER OF
HARVEY.

RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS BELIZE...GUATEMALA...
WESTERN HONDURAS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE SHOULD
SUBSIDE TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT23 KNHC 202033
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
2100 UTC SAT AUG 20 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR HONDURAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR GUATEMALA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 88.8W AT 20/2100Z...INLAND
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 15SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 88.8W AT 20/2100Z...INLAND
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 88.3W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.4N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.7N 92.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.9N 94.9W...INLAND POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 88.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[supercane]

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
700 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...HARVEY MOVING OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA...MAIN THREAT IS HEAVY
RAINFALL...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 89.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF TIKAL GUATEMALA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST. HARVEY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL
CONTINUE MOVING FARTHER INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN GUATEMALA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CENTER
MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS BELIZE...GUATEMALA...
WESTERN HONDURAS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN PORTIONS
OF BELIZE AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA NEAR THE CENTER OF HARVEY.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE SHOULD
SUBSIDE TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

NNNN

[supercane]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 210238
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1000 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

THE CENTER OF HARVEY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
GUATEMALA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE COVERAGE OF COLD CONVECTIVE
TOPS HAS DECREASED NEAR THE CENTER...AND ON THAT BASIS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT. HARVEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/13. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH
OF HARVEY WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD
TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMPLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
GUIDANCE SUITE.

ALTHOUGH HARVEY HAS WEAKENED...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY AND
POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND
EASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 17.4N 90.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 21/1200Z 17.7N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 22/0000Z 17.9N 94.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
WTNT33 KNHC 210237
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1000 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...WEAKENING HARVEY BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA
AND EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 90.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NNW OF TIKAL GUATEMALA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.2 WEST. HARVEY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL HARVEY
DISSIPATES. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL
CONTINUE MOVING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN GUATEMALA TONIGHT AND MOVE
INTO EASTERN MEXICO ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY AND DISSIPATE BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA
TONIGHT NEAR THE CENTER OF HARVEY.

RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS BELIZE...GUATEMALA...
WESTERN HONDURAS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

000
WTNT23 KNHC 210237
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
0300 UTC SUN AUG 21 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 90.2W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 90.2W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 89.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.7N 92.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.9N 94.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 90.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[NONAME]

Is it just me or does it look like Harvey's Ciruculaiton is actually kinda poping out over water again?

[Macrocane]

Is it just me or does it look like Harvey's Ciruculaiton is actually kinda poping out over water again?

Yeah it seems that way, let's see what the next advisory says. I think the Euro predicted the center briefly re-emerging over water, it may be right after all.

[Tampa_God]

Is it just me or does it look like Harvey's Ciruculaiton is actually kinda poping out over water again?

Yeah it seems that way, let's see what the next advisory says. I think the Euro predicted the center briefly re-emerging over water, it may be right after all.

I don't see it strengthening at all though if it is over water. I think Belize made enough of a beating to prevent anything from happening.

[Macrocane]

The advisory issued this morning said that no significant redevelopment is expected however I think it could survive a little more time.

[AdamFirst]

Not dead yet

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO NORTHWARD TO BARRA
DE NAUTIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE
NAUTIA

[supercane]

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
400 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011

LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WERE OBSERVED IN A 0156 UTC TRMM OVERPASS AND
SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER OF HARVEY HAS BEEN MOVING BRISKLY
WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 280/13. THE COVERAGE OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND...BUT THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION IS ESTIMATED TO BE JUST TO THE WEST OF A REMAINING
CLUSTER ALONG THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER. HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD...WITH SOME DECELERATION...UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES BY 36 HOURS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS
SCENARIO..ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST NORTH OF THE MODELS
AND BRIEFLY MOVES HARVEY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA AND EXPERIMENTAL TV15...AND IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. IF THE CENTER
WAS TO MOVE OVER WATER AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF...IT WOULD LIKELY NOT
BE OFFSHORE LONG ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...
AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW GRADUAL WEAKENING
UNTIL DISSIPATION.

HEAVY RAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 17.7N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 18.1N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 22/0600Z 18.3N 96.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG

NNNN

[CrazyC83]

Could it enter the EPAC?

[supercane]

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF DEEP
CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING HARVEY HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AND IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SMALL
CLUSTER OF REMAINING CONVECTION. THE CENTER OF HARVEY SEEMS TO HAVE
AVOIDED THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...
WHICH MAY HAVE ALLOWED IT TO SURVIVE LONGER.

THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS 280/12. HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD COURSE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 24
TO 36 HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS HARVEY OVER
LAND...THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS ARE THE FARTHEST NORTH AND SUGGEST A
SLIM CHANCE THAT THE CENTER COULD BRIEFLY PASS OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. EVEN IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...NO
SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...TO THE NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL TVCN
CONSENSUS.

HEAVY RAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH HARVEY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING...ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 17.7N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 22/0000Z 18.1N 94.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
24H 22/1200Z 18.3N 95.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

NNNN

[supercane]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 212044
TCDAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HARVEY HAS EMERGED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE...FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON CONTINUITY. NOW THAT THE CENTER IS BACK
OVER VERY WARM WATERS AND IN A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED. THEREFORE...THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS HARVEY STRENGTHENING BACK TO A TROPICAL
STORM BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12. HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE VERY SHORT TERM. THE TRACK
SHOULD BEND A BIT MORE TO LEFT BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO AS HARVEY MOVES UNDERNEATH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD PRIMARILY DUE TO THE CENTER RELOCATION
AND REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS.

THIS FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR A SMALL PORTION OF MEXICAN COAST BORDERING THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 18.6N 93.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 19.0N 95.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 19.3N 97.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/0600Z 19.5N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN

000
WTNT33 KNHC 212042
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011

...HARVEY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 93.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO NORTHWARD TO BARRA
DE NAUTIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE
NAUTIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL MOVE
INLAND OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND HARVEY IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER MEXICO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES
OF VERACRUZ...OAXACA...HIDALGO...PUEBLA...AND TIAXCALA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH THE WARNING AREA MONDAY MORNING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN

000
WTNT23 KNHC 212040
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
2100 UTC SUN AUG 21 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO NORTHWARD TO BARRA
DE NAUTIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE
NAUTIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 93.8W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 93.8W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 93.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.0N 95.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.3N 97.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.5N 99.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 93.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN

[Macrocane]

I doubt it, it is going to be a weak storm at landfall and the mountains will kill it before reaching the EPAC andyway there're a low south of Harvey that it's being wathed for development and according to the NHC is the southern portion of the wave that became Harvey so a piece of him may survive.

[Battlebrick]

NHC has Harvey regenerating into a TS.

[HurricaneBelle]

Harvey made a run for the Bay of Campeche so his thread could reach 50 pages. Mission Accomplished!

[HURAKAN]

NHC has Harvey regenerating into a TS.

Into a TD that is expected to reach TS intensity before landfall