ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[alan1961]

Thinking of everyone who has been effected so far by Irene and everyone in her path. Stay safe and update us as and when you can.

I think we are all in for late nights radar and model watching to see exactly where she will track. I have friends flying out to Florida tomorrow with their children and some more meant to be heading out on Friday so keeping an extra close eye on development

Just what they didn't want to hear from you leanne, a hurricane
heading for FLA..nice start for there holiday

[Meteorcane]

Emily had white on funktop I barely see any greens with Irene and I was told funktop was the most accurate indicator for strength.

[KWT]

S.florida is indeed still under the gun, the GFS/ECM stays offshnore but thats still a close call...

The NHC forecasts looks reasonable enough, I'd have personally gone further east but thats just me. At least the first 48hrs looks spot on to me.

One big thing to note is the system goes under RI for the next 12hrs according to the NHC, gets 15kts stronger during that time.

[fci]

Hey is the GIV flying tonight? I don't think it is (wouldn't it have taken off already)?

I am not sure seeing a track north in the next day or two is a good thing for SFL. The euro is closer at 12Z than it was at 0Z, and that would still put South Florida a wobble away from seeing at least the inner core of what could be a much stronger storm than the NHC is currently forecasting.

I do expect the NHC to shift the line east a little, over the central Bahamas, but make no mistake, SFL is still under the gun, and the threat for a significant hurricane has increased in my opinion.

MW

Agreed, thanks for your comments.

I was expecting the ECMWF to shift more east on 12Z but it actually shift some west on the 12Z.

So no way we can breathe a sigh of relief here in South Florida....

ECMWF is only 45 miles east of Palm Beach at its closest point.

When I plug in my coordinates on the "How Close Canl It Get"

http://stormcarib.com/closest.htm

from StormCaribe with the 5 PM forecast positions:
I don't like the result.
It is 1.8 miles from my location (Lake Worth) at 1:42 AM Friday morning.
Chris, you live pretty close to me (just up the road in Wellington) so I'm sure you are with me on this one:
So......let's just keep seeing the future tracks keep going more east and more and more!

[tolakram]

Predicted track comparisons, latest track in brighter red.

[TwisterFanatic]

Emily had white on funktop I barely see any greens with Irene and I was told funktop was the most accurate indicator for strength.

Emily had strong convection, but the LLC was always displaced to the West. Irene is vertically stacked, and it's intensity will all come down how much land interaction it encounters.

[wzrgirl1]

Well SF still supposed to get a direct hit according to the 5:00 update and even earlier....by Thursday afternoon now. Gulp!!!

[KWT]

Another important thing to note is the system misses Cuba totally on the NHC latest forecast...thats about 48-60hrs over water on the NHC track, easily enough time for it to reorganise after Cuba and strengthen back into a decent hurricane...

[Scorpion]

The sky is the limit IMO with regards to strength. If it gets in the bathtub Florida Straits it could easily reach Cat 4.

[MWatkins]

Hey is the GIV flying tonight? I don't think it is (wouldn't it have taken off already)?

I am not sure seeing a track north in the next day or two is a good thing for SFL. The euro is closer at 12Z than it was at 0Z, and that would still put South Florida a wobble away from seeing at least the inner core of what could be a much stronger storm than the NHC is currently forecasting.

I do expect the NHC to shift the line east a little, over the central Bahamas, but make no mistake, SFL is still under the gun, and the threat for a significant hurricane has increased in my opinion.
MW

Strong words there mike...Care to explain why if you dont mine? thanks

Don't mind at all.

1. The Euro 12Z model is left of 0Z (or right on it, can't tell since I don't pay $ for the high res) but close enough to say the east trend in that model has stopped for now

2. The GFS made a landfall in SFL or slightly west of there for 26 runs or something like that, and now, after 1 run we can be relieved at a 96 hour forecast point 60 miles east of Miami?

3. This could be a much stronger system than if it were going to track right over the DR

Just because the forecast line is a little east doesn't mean much at day 4/5. It's way too early for the breathing a sigh of relief message.

MW

[fci]

Hats off to all those who breathed a sigh of relief for florida...not sayin' this is a done deal...but I have been on this board since Frances threatened florida in 2004 and if i have learned one thing, it is to follow the lead of the NHC forecast.

The current 5 PM NHC forecast track is directly over Palm Beach County.
I'm not breathing a sigh of relief at all.
Except, that they say that they are on the western edge of the guidance which would make me anticipate that the track will shift further and futher away in subsequent advisories.
But as for now...................................the current track is not good for Florida..............at all!

[Scorpion]

Hmm if that gust of 60 kt is correct then this system is at least 50-55 kt right now IMO

[NDG]

60 knot wind gust reported by the NDBC station in eastern St Croix

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=chsv3

[3090]

The sky is the limit IMO with regards to strength. If it gets in the bathtub Florida Straits it could easily reach Cat 4.

Or CAT 1, 2, 3 OR 5! Pick one. You never can tell.

[Evil Jeremy]

Sfl is now 4 days away from a potential hurricane. Its tme to start preparing, regardless of current models. The NHC is the best at their job, and if they still show a sfl hit, there is a reason why. Time to start getting ready. And this isn't just a sfl problem. I it strikes sfl, it will ride up through the state. Everyone in fl needs to be watching.

[fci]

The sky is the limit IMO with regards to strength. If it gets in the bathtub Florida Straits it could easily reach Cat 4.

I think that the amount of strengthing over the Florida Straits tends to be way overstated.
I don't recall the last storm that "bombed" over the Straits.
My opinion is that Cat 4 is out of the question after some landfall takes place which is what would have happened had Irene ended up in the Straits.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

Well SF still supposed to get a direct hit according to the 5:00 update and even earlier....by Thursday afternoon now. Gulp!!!

Still way too early. And remember that each set of model runs is moving it further east. But everyone from FL to NC should get all of their preps done now, of course. Looks pretty likely to be a quite strong hurricane wherever it hits. Good luck.

[KWT]

The only thing that I will say is this system has constantly been east of the forecast points...may not mean much in the long run.

to be fair Mike the ECM has been east of Florida for a fair few runs now, its not like its the first time its done that and its had a FAR better grip of the systems track then most of the other models.

Still I won't disagree with you, to say Florida is out of the woods would be madness...and I agree the chances of a stronger hurricane have really increased as well today...if it takes the NHC track 80-90kts is probably do-able in explosive waters...if it takes the more easterly path, 105-120kts.

[jinftl]

Quote of the season from Mike Watkins...item #2 below...couldn't have ever articulated the sentiment like he did!!!

hats off as always Mike!!!

2. The GFS made a landfall in SFL or slightly west of there for 26 runs or something like that, and now, after 1 run we can be relieved at a 96 hour forecast point 60 miles east of Miami?

Hey is the GIV flying tonight? I don't think it is (wouldn't it have taken off already)?

I am not sure seeing a track north in the next day or two is a good thing for SFL. The euro is closer at 12Z than it was at 0Z, and that would still put South Florida a wobble away from seeing at least the inner core of what could be a much stronger storm than the NHC is currently forecasting.

I do expect the NHC to shift the line east a little, over the central Bahamas, but make no mistake, SFL is still under the gun, and the threat for a significant hurricane has increased in my opinion.
MW

2. The GFS made a landfall in SFL or slightly west of there for 26 runs or something like that, and now, after 1 run we can be relieved at a 96 hour forecast point 60 miles east of Miami?

[brunota2003]

60 knot wind gust reported by the NDBC station in eastern St Croix

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=chsv3

Looking at that...I think the 60 is an error, everything else around it is in the upper 20s or lower 30s.