ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[3090]

The NHC forecasts looks reasonable enough....

Ya think? I just don't know yet. I am still waiting to see where it ends up after the land interaction with DR and/or Cuba, if so.

[jlauderdal]

I wouldn't be shocked to see some sort of proto core trying to develop before it comes towards PR, its wrapping up very neatly looking at the current loops...

proto core

that deserves a Wikipedia entry

J - looks like your 150 miles off of FLL might be from the wrong direction.

exactly, i did a very early morning post about my 150 prediction, i should get some verification points though for distance

[NDG]

COC appears to be moving over St Croix as I type this.

[KWT]

Quote of the season from Mike Watkins...item #2 below...couldn't have ever articulated the sentiment like he did!!!

hats off as always Mike!!!

[/quote][/quote]

To be fair though, you can be constantly wrong!

Hurricanes don't really care much whether there has been 2 runs of agreement or 80...I don't disagree with the point, just putting it out there.

Radar is impressive right now, you can see the startings of the northern eyewall on both radar and Sat.imagery, its really cool to watch on two different mediums. Presentation would be ripe for RI in another 12-24hrs if it weren't about to head into Hispaniola.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like its about to start bombing out...

[WeatherEmperor]

Quote of the season from Mike Watkins...item #2 below...couldn't have ever articulated the sentiment like he did!!!

hats off as always Mike!!!

[/quote]

To be fair though, you can be constantly wrong!

Hurricanes don't really care much whether there has been 2 runs of agreement or 80...I don't disagree with the point, just putting it out there.

Radar is impressive right now, you can see the startings of the northern eyewall on both radar and Sat.imagery, its really cool to watch on two different mediums. Presentation would be ripe for RI in another 12-24hrs if it weren't about to head into Hispaniola.[/quote]




He is not talking about the eventual path of Irene. He is talking about people's reaction to the shift of the models. That's the difference.....

[ozonepete]

Radar is impressive right now, you can see the startings of the northern eyewall on both radar and Sat.imagery, its really cool to watch on two different mediums. Presentation would be ripe for RI in another 12-24hrs if it weren't about to head into Hispaniola.

May very well ride the north coast of DR which will not weaken it much at all. In fact, that's the latest NHC track.

[SouthFLTropics]

Anybody who thinks South/Central Florida is off of the hook should take a close look at a previous storm that originally looked to go further North but didn't. Frances anyone???...See the image below of the 5 day forecast location of Frances over Jacksonville. As we all know that didn't pan out. How many times have we seen the models underestimate the strength of a ridge. Furthermore, it should be noted that if the storm gets stronger I believe it has been mentioned before that it will "pump up" the ridge above it and help steer it more westward. Floyd's northerly turn in 99' was induced by a fairly stout cold front if I recall...and that was in Mid September, not August. I have to agree with Mike Watkins on this...We haven't seen the end of the model shifts. We still have a long way to go.



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SFT

[KWT]

looks like its about to start bombing out...

Yeah I agree, it has that presentation, probably will be RI'ing into Hispaniola landfall. Short term motion has been pretty close to due west in the last 2hrs, probably stair-stepping 280 or so, so path through central PR IMO...probably to be fair close to the NHC as you'd expect!

[S2K1]

St.Croix in the I-rene

[Pigsnibble]

Any significance to the non-symetrical nature of the outflow patern ? Looks very non-typical with much the convection in the NE quadrant or is it just an issue of time of development where everything will catch up eventually ?

[NDG]

Pressure now down to 1001mb in St Croix, should continue to go down even more with it still reporting high winds.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=chsv3

[KWT]

Radar is impressive right now, you can see the startings of the northern eyewall on both radar and Sat.imagery, its really cool to watch on two different mediums. Presentation would be ripe for RI in another 12-24hrs if it weren't about to head into Hispaniola.

May very well ride the north coast of DR which will not weaken it much at all. In fact, that's the latest NHC track.

I wouldn't under-estimate them, it was enough to take hurricane Jeanne down to a depression before it rebounded again...

[fci]

I wouldn't be shocked to see some sort of proto core trying to develop before it comes towards PR, its wrapping up very neatly looking at the current loops...

J - looks like your 150 miles off of FLL might be from the wrong direction.

exactly, i did a very early morning post about my 150 prediction, i should get some verification points though for distance

I think your 150 prediction may well be pretty close.
I hope so!
Of course, based on your prior posts on past storms you are feeling VERY comfortable since you are located smack dab on the NHC track!

[SouthFLTropics]

Pressure now down to 1001mb in St Croix, should continue to go down even more with it still reporting high winds.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=chsv3

Is recon even going to be able to get off of the ground with this thing passing right over them? Flying through a storm is one thing. Taking off and landing in it is a different proposition all together.

SFT

[Blown Away]

looks like its about to start bombing out...

I have been saying for days if it skims the N coast of Hispaniola it will miss the big mountains and Cuba and maybe bomb out. It will be cool to see unfortunately many folks will be affected even w/o hitting the CONUS.

[KWT]

Very large system also isn't it!

Current motion does look close to due west, so maybe a smidge south of the NHC track but really isnm't going to make a huge difference right now.

Probably strengthening quite alot right now.

Center just north of St croix right looking at radar and vis loops.

[SeminoleWind]

really starting to get its act together you can see it nicely here

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[gatorcane]

Starting to wobble just due south of west.

Really feeling that ridge to the north......

[jinftl]

Gotta love The Weather Channel...the banners on the bottom of the screen right now say:

Tropical Storm Watch in effect from Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico

Maybe they will speculate if this storm will make it into the Gulf of Georgia?