Flooding Threat and an east coast tropical system

[Stormchaser16]

So many things going on weather wise currently. With a front heading towards the East coast and stalling for at least a few days flooding is going to be a big concern for areas in the SE and already the Midwest. IT appears as though a High pressure system should move into the NE providing cooler and drier air by days 4-6, lessening the flooding threat in that area.The models are anxious to develop something in the gulf within the coming days. This is going to be a big concern for the gulf coast as it could get picked up along the front and provide flooding rains for the gulf coast area. With the front coming through, i do expect some rain and thunderstorms in the NE and the Midatlantic for the Labor day weekend through early next week at least. However after that high pressure should build in and provide cooler and drier air with the persistant threat of thunderstorms continuing in the SE. There is still a slight possibility of flooding rains in portions of the midatlantic and the Northeast as the front comes in, however it would most likely be from thunderstorms or scattered areas of heavier rain, the gulf has alot of moisture to feed North at this point, and there is strong convection in the gulf and over Florida that could feed into the mess.I will keep a watch and see how the flooding threat in the midwest and the east plays out. It seems as though most of the moisture will be fed in from the gulf, couple that with SW winds and the midwest and the SE are in for some flooding/prolonged rains.

As for future Fabian(possibly)...... It seems as though it may remain or TD or weak TS until reaching the islands where it has the possibility of then strengthening. Currently it is in a marginally favorable environment for slow development, there is enough moisture around it, and no drier air till it nears the islands(dont ask me where rainstorm got the idea that there was dry air all around it *coughtrollcough*.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
Nice loop right there. Shear is only around 5 knots, but gets up to 20 kts around the island and the forecast for that is to remain or slightly back off in the coming days. I think this system at its peak still has the potential to become a category 2 hurricane. However the ECMWF and the Canadian suite only have it getting down to around 997 MB. BUT.... they also have it affecting the east coast, after flooding rains in the SE, couple in the threat of a tropical cyclone hitting and we have major headaches. It looks like it will then turn north along the front and head into the Midatlantic and the NE providing heavy rains and flooding. With strong high pressure keeping the system on a westward track i believe the threat of an east coast(or at least a U.S mainland hit) is very possible at this point. So now i say, the problem isnt will it turn out to sea or not, it is how much will it develop before threatening land?

[Stormchaser16]

It still appears as though the front will provide a strong enough SW wind as to carry a tropical moisture feed up to at least the midatlantic, flooding still a threat.

[JCT777]

I agree that TD10/Fabian will not likely not be a fish storm. And we will have to see what the storm looks like in a few days before being able to gauge whether a hurricane will be threatening the east coast.

Another rainy weekend in store for many in the east! What else is new?

[Stephanie]

That's a great satelite! He's got a nice spin to him. Once he closes his NE quadrant - LOOK OUT! :o

[Colin]

I don't think there will be much rain N of DC or so... not enough moisture, and the Tropical System most likely won't make it this far north...so IMO only isolated-scattered storms.