ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[painkillerr]

This reminds me very much of Marilyn, in that Irene went from a TS to a rapidly intensifying hurricane. I am absolutely an amatuer, but I perceive this happening right now.
It's a bit of a suprise how quickly the power on STT went out, unless they shut it down purposely.

Now if only Irene would turn out to sea like Marilyn...

The power is back in St. Thomas....at least in downtown!

[ozonepete]

Looks like St. Croix will get nailed by the eastern side of the eyewall pretty soon. So we'll get some really good surface obs at the same time RECON is there. This is really cool from a meterologists point of view. Just hope everyone is safe and secure.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like a hot tower just went off in NE eyewall:

[KWT]

Looks like St. Croix will get nailed by the eastern side of the eyewall pretty soon. So we'll get some really good surface obs at the same time RECON is there. This is really cool from a meterologists point of view. Just hope everyone is safe and secure.

Yeah don't see it very often, plus we have relaly good radar coverage, we've rarely ever had such a good insight into a developing system!

SDF, yeah you can see the band develop on radar as well, its really close to the center so may well be the eyewall getting going. Hopefully it rotates around and we get a better idea of the true center.

[CajunMama]

Just a reminder...there is are separate threads for Irene recon and Irene recon discussion.

[NDG]

Zoomed in loop on the short range angle.

[fci]

Looks like St. Croix will get nailed by the eastern side of the eyewall pretty soon. So we'll get some really good surface obs at the same time RECON is there. This is really cool from a meterologists point of view. Just hope everyone is safe and secure.

I'm being a pain, but I don't that there is actually an "eyewall" associated with this TS.

[ozonepete]

Looks like a hot tower just went off in NE eyewall:

http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/5707/210wd.jpg

Yep. It doesn't have much time left before it goes over PR, when it should probably level off until it gets back over water at the Mona Passage.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 212259
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 06 20110821
224900 1829N 06406W 8450 01529 //// +144 //// 132042 044 042 012 01
224930 1830N 06404W 8426 01546 //// +138 //// 135045 046 043 015 01
225000 1830N 06403W 8433 01536 //// +136 //// 131042 045 040 030 05
225030 1832N 06402W 8441 01532 //// +141 //// 123035 038 046 020 05
225100 1833N 06401W 8462 01505 //// +132 //// 115047 052 050 047 01
225130 1834N 06400W 8428 01539 //// +126 //// 117049 050 047 025 01
225200 1835N 06358W 8429 01540 0073 +143 //// 119049 051 045 004 01
225230 1836N 06357W 8436 01537 0071 +160 //// 118049 049 043 003 01
225300 1837N 06356W 8429 01542 0068 +161 //// 118048 048 038 003 05
225330 1839N 06356W 8434 01539 0070 +161 //// 118048 048 037 000 01
225400 1840N 06355W 8433 01540 0071 +164 +159 117047 047 037 000 00
225430 1842N 06355W 8433 01543 0074 +163 +158 114046 046 035 000 00
225500 1844N 06354W 8433 01545 0075 +164 +158 113046 047 034 000 00
225530 1845N 06354W 8420 01549 0073 +151 //// 117040 049 035 003 01
225600 1847N 06354W 8449 01531 0077 +150 //// 114038 041 035 003 01
225630 1849N 06353W 8425 01554 0074 +166 +155 117043 043 033 000 00
225700 1850N 06353W 8433 01545 0075 +164 +155 118044 046 036 000 00
225730 1852N 06352W 8433 01545 0074 +165 +155 118046 047 036 000 00
225800 1854N 06352W 8430 01550 0078 +163 +163 118044 047 036 001 00
225830 1855N 06351W 8438 01544 0082 +153 //// 102039 043 044 014 01
$$
;

[KWT]

NDG, good loop.

What will happen is the new convection will attempt to wrap around a tighter core, its worked so far on the northern flank and thats why it has the illusion of dropping south because the northern dry slot has been eroded. True motion still looks fairly close to due west to me, but heck I could be wrong and this:

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Is worthwhile highlighting!

[brunota2003]

Couldn't PR actually help it? The friction over land could tighten the circulation?

[ozonepete]

Looks like St. Croix will get nailed by the eastern side of the eyewall pretty soon. So we'll get some really good surface obs at the same time RECON is there. This is really cool from a meterologists point of view. Just hope everyone is safe and secure.

I'm being a pain, but I don't that there is actually an "eyewall" associated with this TS.

You're not being a pain at all. You're being precise. It is really a developing eyewall. I remember going through this with Derek many times. The standard for exactly when it is an eye is kind of fuzzy, but I always refused to call it that until the winds reached hurricane force. So I stand corrected.

[bob rulz]

Looks like St. Croix will get nailed by the eastern side of the eyewall pretty soon. So we'll get some really good surface obs at the same time RECON is there. This is really cool from a meterologists point of view. Just hope everyone is safe and secure.

I'm being a pain, but I don't that there is actually an "eyewall" associated with this TS.

I'm not so sure. The radar sure looks like an eyewall or at least a proto-eye feature.

(I love using "proto" )

[HURAKAN]

[tolakram]

Saved radar loop from wunderground.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Looks like a hot tower just went off in NE eyewall:

http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/5707/210wd.jpg

If that continues to increase, it could give us some big problems later tonight...

[ozonepete]

NDG, good loop.

What will happen is the new convection will attempt to wrap around a tighter core, its worked so far on the northern flank and thats why it has the illusion of dropping south because the northern dry slot has been eroded. True motion still looks fairly close to due west to me, but heck I could be wrong and this:

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Is worthwhile highlighting!

Yes, KWT. Good obs. Look at the circulation envelope as well on satellite. Looks like the center is getting tugged north a little bit. RECON's location of center north of St. Croix supports it.

[Hurricaneman]

It seems to me that this currently has a similar structure to 1996 Bertha

[Evil Jeremy]

Saved radar loop from wunderground.

http://i.imgur.com/Uy8Q4.gif

She is really tightening up now. And it might be an illusion, but I see a slightly south of west motion.

[ozonepete]

Looks like a hot tower just went off in NE eyewall:

If that continues to increase, it could give us some big problems later tonight...

YEah. Looks like you will get some really big squalls for sure. Be careful.