ATL: IRENE - Models

[KWT]

Cool image AF, once again why we shouldn't be 100% confident of the track, though worth noting that is the mean forecast, could easily be several big hurricanes in the E.Gulf on some of the ECM ensembles that pulls the whole mean a little to the west.

[Countrygirl911]

is there anyway that the models could shift it again and have it going into the GOM or is it perrty much determined that it is not going into the GOM and is going to fl and up the east coast i am still new to this and i am still learning to read all the models

[SouthDadeFish]

is there anyway that the models could shift it again and have it going into the GOM or is it perrty much determined that it is not going into the GOM and is going to fl and up the east coast i am still new to this and i am still learning to read all the models

The models could shift. Look at the NHC cone. If you are anywhere in the NHC cone you should continue to watch Irene closely. Even if you are just outside the cone you should continue to watch the cone closely.

[Evil Jeremy]

is there anyway that the models could shift it again and have it going into the GOM or is it perrty much determined that it is not going into the GOM and is going to fl and up the east coast i am still new to this and i am still learning to read all the models

Nothing is ever determined with the tropics. There are very rarely certanties. While it is not looking very likely that this will be a GOM threat, the GFDL from 12z still suggested its a possibility.

[fci]

is there anyway that the models could shift it again and have it going into the GOM or is it perrty much determined that it is not going into the GOM and is going to fl and up the east coast i am still new to this and i am still learning to read all the models

Highly unlikely but NEVER determined until after it has passed you.
Only real outlier models (if any) show Irene headed to GOM but if she gets torn up by Hispanola or stuck there, you never know.
I would suggest checking back and reading the threads and NHC advisories to know for sure that the GOM is out of the picture. Probably best to just check the information rather than asking the question sometimes.
People will start to get heated up and tense and sometimes will give you a sarcastic answer which would be undeserving to a newbie!
Keep up to date!!!!

[Evil Jeremy]

18z HWRF a good chunk east of the previous run at 96 hours out. No threat to FL, and just clipping the Northern Bahamas:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2096.gif

[Talgrissett]

I live near Wilmington, NC. How does everyone feel about the threat level here? Doesn't look good to me if the models are correct. I have always seen the forecast tracks keep shifting east in years past.

[otowntiger]

is there anyway that the models could shift it again and have it going into the GOM or is it perrty much determined that it is not going into the GOM and is going to fl and up the east coast i am still new to this and i am still learning to read all the models

The models could shift. Look at the NHC cone. If you are anywhere in the NHC cone you should continue to watch Irene closely. Even if you are just outside the cone you should continue to watch the cone closely.

I agree with SouthDade Fish. The models could be doing like a windshield wiper action. They may swing back west before settling into a firmer direction. I think its why the NHC didn't swing too far east so they don't look like they can' t make up their minds. Incidentally for those of you who care the last forecast point in the 5:00 advisiory has it right over my house, Orlando, at 2:00 p.m. I realize that I may be pretty safe because the paths always change.

[fox13weather]

Storms paralleling the east coast of Florida rarely cause issues unless the core of the eyewall makes landfall.

[otowntiger]

18z HWRF a good chunk east of the previous run at 96 hours out. No threat to FL, and just clipping the Northern Bahamas:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2096.gif

Wow! Thats a BIG swing east. And look at the forecasted strength! 925 mb. I don't know about that path or intensity.

[fci]

I live near Wilmington, NC. How does everyone feel about the threat level here? Doesn't look good to me if the models are correct. I have always seen the forecast tracks keep shifting east in years past.

I would pay close attention to the advisories and be prepared to take precautions for Irene if I lived up there.
The models are not being kind in their migration off the Florida coast and up to the SE CONUS.
The trend is your friend, unless of course the trend is towards you.......
Good luck and be ready if necessary

[otowntiger]

Storms paralleling the east coast of Florida rarely cause issues unless the core of the eyewall makes landfall.

Of course that depends on how close they are, how big they are and how strong they are, right?

[ConvergenceZone]

Florida is just a very blessed state most of the time as far as storms go. I know--andrew, terrible storm, Jeanne, Frances, and Wilma, too==but all in all, something usually, usually, not always, takes it away from the state. Florida looks so vulnerable out in the water, but it must have some kind of protection going on! Just my opinion--see NHC products for accurate info.

Particularly South Florida.
Considering how we are exposed, one would expect more hits than we get. That little spurt with the three storms notwithstanding.

Of course there are other places in the state with the "shields" that have kept them safer.....Tampa, Jacksonville........

I think Cuba and Hispanolia are the 2 shields that protect Florida. I can't even imagine how many horrible storms you would have got if it wasn't for those 2 sacrificial islands.

[Talgrissett]

Thanks. Guess it is a wait and see. I would hope our emergency director opens EOC tomorrow or Tuesday.

[fox13weather]

Storms paralleling the east coast of Florida rarely cause issues unless the core of the eyewall makes landfall.

Of course that depends on how close they are, how big they are and how strong they are, right?

Not really ... depends on the angle ....but as long as the eyewall stays off the east coast ...impacts are minimal.

[TBCaneFreak]

I live near Wilmington, NC. How does everyone feel about the threat level here? Doesn't look good to me if the models are correct. I have always seen the forecast tracks keep shifting east in years past.

I would pay close attention to the advisories and be prepared to take precautions for Irene if I lived up there.
The models are not being kind in their migration off the Florida coast and up to the SE CONUS.
The trend is your friend, unless of course the trend is towards you.......
Good luck and be ready if necessary

Pay close attention and prepare, but that being said and starring down 8 days worth of direct hits from the models here in Florida to watch them move off to the east now...ID SAY PRETTY GOOD ODDS THE MODELS AREN'T CORRECT

[fci]

Storms paralleling the east coast of Florida rarely cause issues unless the core of the eyewall makes landfall.

Well put sir!
I have been trying to say that for a while but just didn't put the words together coherently.
If the trend continues, this will not be an issue for Southeast Florida if Irene is east of us

[Evil Jeremy]

18z HWRF 120 hours out, headed to S.C.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2120.gif

126 hours (last frame), off the coast: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... st2126.gif

GFDL up and running very soon.

[fci]

Thanks. Guess it is a wait and see. I would hope our emergency director opens EOC tomorrow or Tuesday.

Can you add your location to your information so we know where you are talking about?
I see you said it (Wilmington) in your earlier message but it would be best if you add it through your profile page!
Thanks!!!!

[UpTheCreek]

Storms paralleling the east coast of Florida rarely cause issues unless the core of the eyewall makes landfall.

Of course that depends on how close they are, how big they are and how strong they are, right?

Not really ... depends on the angle ....but as long as the eyewall stays off the east coast ...impacts are minimal.

We sometimes get quite a bit of damage from storms off of our coast here in NC. We have large sounds in which the tides are normally wind driven. If we get a strong one off the coast, that water is pushed way up the sounds and our rivers, causing great flooding and damage.

If you are only speaking of Florida, please state as such.