ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[fci]

I wont b shocked to watch p.r stun irene and then the d.r deliver k.o punch. Looks lined up to run most of p.r and d.r imo

PR won't even put a dent in a system this size, DR obviously will hurt the system but as for a K.O blow, with very good conditions aloft, i'd be very surprised.

This is NOT Emily, its already far better organised at the lower levels then Emily every managed to get and conditions aloft are far better, hardly any shear.

Have the mid and lower level circulations come together (stacked) yet?

[HURAKAN]

[FireRat]

I'm going to try a shot at this storm's future:

Tropical storm Irene (Or Jose if 99L gets named first for some reason) forms late Saturday/early Sunday as it affects the northern leewards. It will near Puerto Rico as a strengthening tropical storm and perhaps weak hurricane (something near 55-70 kts) early on Monday August 22. On August 23rd, the storm will skirt the northern part of Hispaniola or perhaps pass right over the island and leave it on the 24th, as a weak hurricane. On August 25, the storm will strengthen and take a swipe at the southern Bahamas and near South Florida as a hurricane later on the 25th. The afternoon of August 25th, the hurricane will pass through the Straits or cross the Florida Keys as a strong hurricane (Cat 2 or 3) on a track similar to Hurricane Georges of 1998. Miami and Fort Lauderdale should be on high watch on August 25th. On August 26, the storm will curve more NW after passing Florida and head for landfall somewhere between New Orleans and Apalachicola, FL on August 27 as a Major Hurricane.

Sounds nuts huh? I could be way off, but am taking into account the consistent model runs, my risk dates (something I'm testing), the high water temps ahead, the size of 97L, the time of year, some analog storms (1998 Georges), and just plain gut feeling.

Here's the disclaimer just in case

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hey all:

Something I'd like to update to this old post from 2 days ago (Page #28 on this thread) is that the same thing that I said could happen on August 27 in the NE Gulf is also possible in Georgia and the Carolinas, they could get struck by a then nasty hurricane Irene. I hope for the best and that this does not come true.

[painkillerr]

NDG, good loop.

What will happen is the new convection will attempt to wrap around a tighter core, its worked so far on the northern flank and thats why it has the illusion of dropping south because the northern dry slot has been eroded. True motion still looks fairly close to due west to me, but heck I could be wrong and this:

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Is worthwhile highlighting!

Yes, KWT. Good obs. Look at the circulation envelope as well on satellite. Looks like the center is getting tugged north a little bit. RECON's location of center north of St. Croix supports it.

There has been an eerie calm over St. Thomas for the past 30 minutes. It has to be the eye! Winds are starting to pick up from the opposite side now!

[KWT]

Have the mid and lower level circulations come together (stacked) yet?

Yeah looks like it, very well stacked and strengthening at the moment, formative eyewall on the NE side of the center, not quite there yet though to be fair.

[plasticup]

There has been an eerie calm over St. Thomas for the past 30 minutes. It has to be the eye! Winds are starting to pick up from the opposite side now!

Did the rain stop too?

[painkillerr]

There has been an eerie calm over St. Thomas for the past 30 minutes. It has to be the eye! Winds are starting to pick up from the opposite side now!

Did the rain stop too?

Rain and wind stopped!!! Visibility is very good!

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 212349
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 11 20110821
233900 1840N 06553W 8433 01564 0096 +168 +142 065034 035 033 001 00
233930 1838N 06551W 8430 01568 0102 +159 +151 061036 037 032 000 00
234000 1837N 06550W 8433 01563 0101 +158 +153 060039 039 031 000 00
234030 1836N 06549W 8434 01563 0101 +158 +150 062039 040 032 002 00
234100 1835N 06548W 8431 01566 0099 +160 +150 064040 041 032 000 00
234130 1834N 06546W 8434 01560 0099 +157 +149 064041 042 035 000 00
234200 1833N 06545W 8438 01554 0095 +162 +152 066044 045 034 000 00
234230 1832N 06544W 8435 01557 0089 +169 +145 064041 044 037 000 03
234300 1830N 06543W 8433 01559 0085 +174 +146 059038 039 036 001 00
234330 1829N 06542W 8431 01560 0085 +172 +143 054039 040 037 001 00
234400 1828N 06541W 8434 01555 0083 +175 +143 059042 045 038 000 00
234430 1827N 06540W 8431 01558 0081 +173 +152 061045 046 039 000 00
234500 1826N 06538W 8430 01555 0081 +168 +157 063046 048 041 003 00
234530 1825N 06537W 8434 01550 0081 +164 +162 061045 046 042 002 00
234600 1824N 06536W 8433 01548 0076 +165 +162 058046 046 055 005 00
234630 1823N 06535W 8435 01545 0076 +164 +159 059046 048 046 002 03
234700 1822N 06534W 8434 01533 0063 +164 +158 055047 048 044 008 00
234730 1821N 06533W 8433 01545 0069 +162 +160 057050 051 045 006 00
234800 1819N 06532W 8432 01542 0074 +158 //// 056048 050 040 010 01
234830 1818N 06531W 8430 01542 0071 +161 //// 054045 046 045 006 01
$$
;

[supercane]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 212351
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
800 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE MOVING PAST ST. CROIX...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
SPREADING OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 64.9W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* HAITI
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF
IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND NEAR OR OVER
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IRENE IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY ON MONDAY. WEAKENING IS
LIKELY LATER ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER. ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF
69 MPH...111 KM/H. A PUERTO RICO SEISMIC NETWORK STATION AT
FAJARDO PUERTO RICO RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 35 MPH...
56 KM/H AND A WIND GUST OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE DATA FROM ST. CROIX IS
995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES THIS
EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC EARLY MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA TONIGHT...AND OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER
AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3
TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO
RICO...AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Evil Jeremy]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 64.9W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

[CrazyC83]

55 kt SFMR reported unflagged.

[CronkPSU]

wow...up 10 mph and down 4 mb in the last three hours or they just have better info now?

[SouthDadeFish]

55 kt SFMR reported unflagged.

I'm guessing its skewed due to the shallow waters recon is flying over just E of Puerto Rico. Flight level winds don't really support it.

[Dave]

[Evil Jeremy]

wow...up 10 mph and down 4 mb in the last three hours or they just have better info now?

Well with recon, they do have better info now. As for 10mph up, it reads that on paper, though it's probably less of an increase because of the mph/kt conversion.

[BatzVI]

I don't know about this calm your talking about in St. Thomas because its been nonstop up here on the northside...very rainy and very gusty

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Irene continues to explode near the center. Look at the last 7:45pm frame

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[supercane]

Latest microwave:

[TheDreamTraveler]

Oh wow, it looks like it's really started to improve in the past couple of hours compared to the last microwave image.

[tolakram]

Center of circulation appears to me moving a bit north of west. You can get a feel for the center with this loop at high speed.