ATL: IRENE - Models

[Emmett_Brown]

I remember back in '05, how the GFDL was the outlier... I think it was the only model that accurately forecasted Katrina's SW motion over SFL. Basically, the model consensus (and that includes the GFS that the GFDL is based off of) was a W/NW motion over FL, and Katrina stubbornly headed SW for about 24 hours. In the end, the whole track shifted significantly W, and we know the rest. I'm not saying this will happen now, but it is sticking in my mind as a possibility. So, history says that the GFDL can be wacky and right sometimes.

[daisy32]

Is the GIV flying out of MacDill Afb in Tampa?

Yes.[/quote

Ok. That's what I thought. I live here so I will let u know per eye sight when it takes off

[Evil Jeremy]

I remember back in '05, how the GFDL was the outlier... I think it was the only model that accurately forecasted Katrina's SW motion over SFL. Basically, the model consensus (and that includes the GFS that the GFDL is based off of) was a W/NW motion over FL, and Katrina stubbornly headed SW for about 24 hours. In the end, the whole track shifted significantly W, and we know the rest. I'm not saying this will happen now, but it is sticking in my mind as a possibility. So, history says that the GFDL can be wacky and right sometimes.

Great to see you back on here. I agree, the GFDL can not be discounted. Too much still up in the air.

[Pigsnibble]

How does an asymetrical presentation of a system impact direction/intensity in the models (if at all).......this one appears to be skewed for convection on the north and NE side ?

[SootyTern]

Just flew out of San Juan this afternoon; rain shield starting to move in as we took off around 340. Cool to fly up through the layers of the edge of Irene; outflow clouds probably 50,000 feet up. So glad she's not even stronger for Puerto Rico; good luck to all who live there!

I would be more comfortable with a westward moving storm below So FLA than one barely east of us; it seems they often continue west further than the models forecast. I'm thinking of Ivan right now; iirc he was forecast to go NW into FLA for several days but he kept trucking west.

Definently will be an 'interesting' week ahead.


edit: Sorry, wrong thread.catching up with all the posts!

[Emmett_Brown]

I remember back in '05, how the GFDL was the outlier... I think it was the only model that accurately forecasted Katrina's SW motion over SFL. Basically, the model consensus (and that includes the GFS that the GFDL is based off of) was a W/NW motion over FL, and Katrina stubbornly headed SW for about 24 hours. In the end, the whole track shifted significantly W, and we know the rest. I'm not saying this will happen now, but it is sticking in my mind as a possibility. So, history says that the GFDL can be wacky and right sometimes.

Great to see you back on here. I agree, the GFDL can not be discounted. Too much still up in the air.

Thanks EJ, glad to be back posting. This is a great storm to track so far! Don't think FL is out of the woods yet for sure! (but then I'm just a mad scientist...)

[stormreader]

Appears the GFDL has Irene barely a TS once it gets west of Haiti. Could be it see's such a weak system not feeling the weakness and steered more by the flow around the ridge at lower levels.

Or is it even possible---that the GFDL and the UKMET actually have Irene missing the trough entirely! Seems a little far-fetched right now, but the WV Loop shows the trough is already dug in along the east coast down to SC-Ga. The GFDL and UKMET tracks have a storm moving with only a gradual turn into the Gulf, feeling a much less potent weakness in the E GOMand moving NW. I think if you followed those tracks to their logical conclusion you might even find a landfall west of Fl towards Mobile---Gulf Shores. Not likely---but here's the WV Loop of the trough already on the E Coast.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html

[gatorcane]

So from this run, GFS very very slight shift west, GFDL big shift west, and HWRF big shift east.

So you shoot down the middle!

Remember what the GFDL did with Ike when it was about 4 days from South Florida. It dipped Ike into Cuba and nailed that track to all of our disbelief.

You can't rule it out. It is the second best performing model over the past 3 years. So I doubt the NHC can move the track east much

[OuterBanker]

Been gone awhile. So all the models have shifted back to the west into the panhandle again? That's ok, actually great. Although out to sea would be the best scenario.

[HurricaneBelle]

Been gone awhile. So all the models have shifted back to the west into the panhandle again? That's ok, actually great. Although out to sea would be the best scenario.

Not all, just one - the GFDL.

[Hurricaneman]

Been gone awhile. So all the models have shifted back to the west into the panhandle again? That's ok, actually great. Although out to sea would be the best scenario.

Nope, just the GFDL

[stormreader]

Been gone awhile. So all the models have shifted back to the west into the panhandle again? That's ok, actually great. Although out to sea would be the best scenario.

We're only talking about a couple of models. Most still take the storm into Fl or further east.

[pgoss11]

Been gone awhile. So all the models have shifted back to the west into the panhandle again? That's ok, actually great. Although out to sea would be the best scenario.

Not exactly... GFDL shifted west.. but it is the only model that far west right now.. time will tell though

[caneman]

You can't discount GFDL, nor can you discount an East GOM threat. The models are still flipping. Heck, Charley went 50 -100 miles East within a 24 hour time frame. To do so would be foolish. Just sayin.........

[Blown Away]

00Z TVCN shifts a bit west, just offshore SFL, landfalls Savannah.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[Nimbus]

They must have fed the GFDL a stronger ridge scenario with a weaker storm coming off Hispaniola missing the trough. Could happen so its good to keep everybody in the cone prepared.

[rockyman]

Bottom line..the new GFDL stays inside the NHC 5 day cone...so it's not at all far-fetched

[psyclone]

what we're really seeing with the models is a decline in consensus with the tight clustering of earlier today coming apart somewhat. hwrf shifts farther east while the gfdl lurches west.

[Dean4Storms]

Well to be accurate, the UKMET is still in the Gulf.

[Rainband]

00Z TVCN shifts a bit west, just offshore SFL, landfalls Savannah.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

um no or a a bad link