Clsoe to making a FINAL call on Fabian AKA DONNA

[Stormchaser16]

That is right. Has anyone seen what the latest GFS does to the midatlantic with Fabian? Remember Donna? Well its coming around again possibly. Now I know it is the GFS. But think of this. Fabian will move towards Florida then slow down as the front finally passes off the eastern seaboard. The GFS shows a MASSIVE trough developing in the midwest and heading East. With the high pressure embedded within it providing cooler air coming down from Canada(how refreshing). Well that cool dry air won't last for too long. Massive ridge develops in the midwest as the trough pushes through. This once again means heat SOARING in the plains.At the same time this would force Fabian northward along the eastern seaboard while completely destroying the midatlantic and eventually the northeast with massive amounts of rain. Now the actual rainfall amounts have yet to be determined. However we are in a strong
-NAO which means that this pattern isnt that out of this world. Also the PNA reading is forecast to become positivie soon which further supports the idea that this pattern is plausible.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_276l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_288l.gif

Now remember the GFS tends to overdo these patterns most of the time, however the NAO is in the tank so it may be somewhat realistic.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_300l.gif

It's basically just forced right up the coast as it would have nowhere else to go. The sad thing is it doesnt seem to be much in a hurry to make an escape either. Because with the type of setup the strong high would force it to move inland evetually and slow down.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_360l.gif

With the possibility of the remnans sliding all the way to OHIO/MICHIGAN!
Most of the enembles as well seem to agree with something like this occuring. Ill be interested to see tonights Euro temperature plots so i can pick out anything like the GFS is showing. It is a long way out, and we have a while to go before we really start to get worried. But it seems as over the last 4-5 days the models have been consistently showing a setup which prefers an east coast hit.

[Colin]

Thank Goodness I don't live near a river or creek! :o :o :o Thanks for ALL your updates man!!

[Stormchaser16]

No problem at all, it just seems to get more and more interesting everytime i wanna make a post LOL

[Colin]

As an early prediction, how much rain could E PA get and when will this hit?

Thanks!

[Stormchaser16]

Well if the setup being shown now were to be correct, then the northeast would be sparred the worst of the storm with NJ Eastern PA and northward receiving at most .5-1" of rain with farther south and farther west pushing upon 3+ inches at very least. And the expected time of arrival(where it should first be affecting the east coast) i would say somewhere around the 8-10 day of september.

[Steve H.]

Colin...too early to call. If its like seasons past, it will do that track but be about 200 miles further east!! Bad thing is, if it does that, it will curve back west and hit Jersey dead on

[Stormchaser16]

That is true, however if this trough develops in the east, with a strong high pressure over the northeast it would essentially force the system inland towards the upper midwest.

[alicia-w]

Forgive the eternal cynic in me, but these are 12 to 15 days out. a lot can happen in that time.........

[Stormchaser16]

Yea but remember the setup is there....... look in the atlantic right now, strong high pressures are out there foricing Fabian on a more southerly track as opposed as out to sea. True alot CAN happen but with this setup......... just admit that it is more possible that it is an east coast threat

[wxman57]

Also note that since the problems at NCEP that the GFS is NOT incorporating such data as QuickSCAT winds into the initialization. Other data are not being used as well (yet), so use the GFS with caution.

[Stormchaser16]

That's true, but its on par with almost every other model i've seen, all/most models show an east coast threat, what i am pointing out in the GFS is the massive trough in the east coast that would force it actually inland. Which is not that far fetched with a -NAO

[Colin]

PHEW! I'm glad...but the sad thing is that my birthday party is Sept. 13 and it looks like it might be quite rainy then...

[wow]

if i could see that in january... :o

[msbee]

stormchaser
what do you think about the caribbean? will it pass North of the islands?

[nickd]

With all due respect it is way too early to make a confident call. Granted I do agree with you on your forecast but it is just way too early. So many things can happen 5 days out let alone 10-14 days out to actually make a call with confidence. i do respect your enthusiasm and will be watching the tropics closely.

[Stormchaser16]

It's not enthusiasn and it's at the same time not set in stone. Im simply saying look at the data presented to you, heck look at the atlantic NOW, and it isnt too hard to see what i am seeing.......

[Stormchaser16]

As for the Caribbean, i think it will pass NE of the lesser antilles, maybe brushing by the northernmost islands and maybe brushing PR.

[GalvestonDuck]

As for the Caribbean, i think it will pass NE of the lesser antilles, maybe brushing by the northernmost islands and maybe brushing PR.

Could you clarify, please? NE?? How's it gonna go that way?

[ChaserUK]

How likely is this East Coast threat? My funds are limited but worth even a near miss? God this is so difficult! Need more expert info guys!!!

[Stormchaser16]

IMO the actual chances of a brush or near miss are like 5-1 with the chances of a landfall being 25-1 at this point.