ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL
AND UKMET...ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TURNING IRENE
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE IN 2 OR 3 DAYS.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD REMAINS IN THE SHARPNESS OF THIS TURN
IN THE MODEL SUITE. FOR THIS CYCLE THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED BACK A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...WITH THE GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF
MODELS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UKMET AND GFDL FARTHER WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE RIGHT...TOWARD BUT STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE FIM MODEL PROVIDED BY THE
HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT.

[jpigott]

Cone moved exactly like I thought it would

are thinking more eastward shifts? when it is all said and done, I see this trending towards an upper SC / Wilmington NC landfall. Seems like for storms in the past, once the models latched onto a weakness in the ridge, it got stronger as each run progresses and the track shifted accordingly. Maybe that's just perception. Any current data out there to support a trend like this for Irene?

Before everyone hops on the continued eastward trends train, may want to take a look at the models thread. The new NAM is further south and west through the keys with stronger ridging.

[eastcoastFL]

I live in wellington as well. I didnt watch the local news today but last night they were all over it. Been busy today so I havent had a chance to watch much tv but I will see what comes on at 11!

I'm in Madison Green. When/where is the hurricane party?

im down the road aways. off wellington trace..

the latest track seems to keep the worst of it off to our east

[Vortex]

Not liking the new forecast path from NHC....skirts DR than has plenty of water to strengthen before it gets very close to west palm beach....Near ideal condiitons in the bahamas...this could easily me a major by the time it approaches the FL coast

[Evil Jeremy]

Last night's 00z runs changed the trend from west to east. Will it switch again? The NAM already flopped, GFS starts in about a half an hour.

[Bocadude85]

up to 70 mph winds at 11...993 mb

and the cone is right of the 5pm cone...good call guys, i was wrong

landfall at Jacksonville ????? Really ????? Wow.

actually landfall is still in south florida, just rides up the coast

[eastcoastFL]

Not liking the new forecast path from NHC....skirts DR than has plenty of water to strengthen before it gets very close to west palm beach....Near ideal condiitons in the bahamas...this could easily me a major by the time it approaches the FL coast

but wouldnt the worst of the storm be to the east of the center and according to the new path that portion of the storm would be well east of us palm beachers.

[chris_fit]

Just looking at this new path from the NHC... **** IF **** this storm strengthens to a Cat 2/3+ we are talking about a huge evacuation, basically all of the east coast of FL, all the way up up to NC (model support)... It **** COULD ***** get ugly.

[HeeBGBz]

Cone moved exactly like I thought it would

are thinking more eastward shifts? when it is all said and done, I see this trending towards an upper SC / Wilmington NC landfall. Seems like for storms in the past, once the models latched onto a weakness in the ridge, it got stronger as each run progresses and the track shifted accordingly. Maybe that's just perception. Any current data out there to support a trend like this for Irene?

Before everyone hops on the continued eastward trends train, may want to take a look at the models thread. The new NAM is further south and west through the keys with stronger ridging.

I was wondering that too. Isn't it going west again?

[viberama]

up to 70 mph winds at 11...993 mb

and the cone is right of the 5pm cone...good call guys, i was wrong

landfall at Jacksonville ????? Really ????? Wow.

actually landfall is still in south florida, just rides up the coast

Weren't most models in agreement to this scenario a 4-5 days ago?

[JTE50]

anybody getting radar data?

[SouthFLTropics]

A nudge to the east on the track...But according to Stormcarib "how close will it get"

The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 27.4N, 80.0W or about 25.2 miles (40.6 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 102.0 hours (Friday, August 26 at 5:00AM AST).

Still a little too close for comfort for me. I'd like to see that 25.2 miles open up to about 100 or so miles minimum.

SFT

[gatorcane]

First time I have seen the NHC discussion reference the FIM model

[MGC]

First, I'd like to wish everyone caught up in Irene will be safe and come out of this OK.

Irene looks to be intensifying at a good rate and IMO will likely reach hurricane intensity prior to landfall in PR. Should traverse the island and emerge over the Mona Passage or Atlantic Ocean as a weak TS. Just how close Irene passes to DR is critical in regards to Irene's intensity as it approaches the Bahamas and US. Best case for Florida is for Irene to traverse as much of the DR as possible and the storms inner core is disrupted. If Irene passes offshore than thing could be considerably worst for the Bahamas and Florida. Currently I'm thinking Irene will pass just offshore of the DR and as the storm pulls away from Hispaniola over very warm water with little shear Irene should intensify at a good clip. Would not be surprised if Irene attains major hurricane status.....MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[Dave]

[TheDreamTraveler]

Last night's 00z runs changed the trend from west to east. Will it switch again? The NAM already flopped, GFS starts in about a half an hour.

Considering the Nam started Irene at 1008mb, I doubt it'll be that useful for determining anything atm.

[SunnyThoughts]

Just looking at this new path from the NHC... **** IF **** this storm strengthens to a Cat 2/3+ we are talking about a huge evacuation, basically all of the east coast of FL, all the way up up to NC (model support)... It **** COULD ***** get ugly.

I agree. What a nightmare scenario for emergency management for the entire length of the FLA peninsula...perhaps GA coastal areas and SC too, who knows. Lots of folks going to be making decisions in the next week whether or not to evacuate, all depending on how much land interaction goes on between now and when the system reaches south FLA..and the direction she decides to take afterwards.

[bella_may]

Uh oh, now the Nam is on board with a gom storm as well.not good news for us along the gulf coast.

[SouthFLTropics]

Just looking at this new path from the NHC... **** IF **** this storm strengthens to a Cat 2/3+ we are talking about a huge evacuation, basically all of the east coast of FL, all the way up up to NC (model support)... It **** COULD ***** get ugly.

Agreed...But this is a perfect case where people need to realize that not everyone needs to evacuate. Even with a storm bearing down if you live in a sturdy structure and are not in an evacuation zone then batten down the hatches and shelter in place. I've got my shutters ready to go, reviewed my supplies today, and I'm ready to button up the house and listen to the wind blow if need be. The reason we get so many traffic jams during evacuations is because there are many people leaving that really don't need to.

SFT

[CrazyC83]

Just looking at this new path from the NHC... **** IF **** this storm strengthens to a Cat 2/3+ we are talking about a huge evacuation, basically all of the east coast of FL, all the way up up to NC (model support)... It **** COULD ***** get ugly.

I agree. What a nightmare scenario for emergency management for the entire length of the FLA peninsula...perhaps GA coastal areas and SC too, who knows. Lots of folks going to be making decisions in the next week whether or not to evacuate, all depending on how much land interaction goes on between now and when the system reaches south FLA..and the direction she decides to take afterwards.

What cities in that corridor are highly prone to storm surge given the angle of approach?