ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[TheDreamTraveler]

Uh oh, now the Nam is on board with a gom storm as well.not good news for us along the gulf coast.

I wouldn't worry too much, the Nam didn't start the storm out as strong as it is currently, thus limiting its usefulness in tracking the storm. Plus it's not a very good model for tracking hurricanes.

[northjaxpro]

Just looking at this new path from the NHC... **** IF **** this storm strengthens to a Cat 2/3+ we are talking about a huge evacuation, basically all of the east coast of FL, all the way up up to NC (model support)... It **** COULD ***** get ugly.

Yeah, IF Irene intensifies into a Cat 2/3, yes potentially this would be a major problem for the entire SE U.S. coastline. This set-up depicted is worrisome for me here in Jax and should be for everyone in this region for that matter.


Still a few days left to see how this evolves. We just have to start preparing for sure for Irene's approach in a few days.

[CrazyC83]

Just looking at this new path from the NHC... **** IF **** this storm strengthens to a Cat 2/3+ we are talking about a huge evacuation, basically all of the east coast of FL, all the way up up to NC (model support)... It **** COULD ***** get ugly.

Agreed...But this is a perfect case where people need to realize that not everyone needs to evacuate. Even with a storm bearing down if you live in a sturdy structure and are not in an evacuation zone then batten down the hatches and shelter in place. I've got my shutters ready to go, reviewed my supplies today, and I'm ready to button up the house and listen to the wind blow if need be. The reason we get so many traffic jams during evacuations is because there are many people leaving that really don't need to.

SFT

Do you have a generator? Tomorrow morning would be a good time if you can afford one...

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220309
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 31 20110822
025900 1634N 06452W 8434 01566 0098 +170 +143 208025 025 012 000 00
025930 1634N 06450W 8436 01565 0100 +170 +137 203026 026 011 001 00
030000 1634N 06449W 8430 01572 0101 +169 +139 207025 025 014 000 00
030030 1634N 06447W 8434 01570 0098 +176 +133 204025 025 013 000 00
030100 1634N 06445W 8433 01570 0096 +180 +129 205025 025 015 000 00
030130 1634N 06443W 8436 01569 0100 +175 +139 198024 024 014 000 00
030200 1634N 06442W 8432 01573 0102 +171 +141 189025 025 015 000 00
030230 1634N 06440W 8432 01572 0103 +170 +142 190025 026 015 000 00
030300 1634N 06438W 8434 01571 0105 +165 +148 193024 025 014 000 00
030330 1634N 06437W 8435 01568 0105 +165 +152 192024 024 014 000 00
030400 1634N 06435W 8434 01571 0106 +165 +148 189024 024 014 000 00
030430 1634N 06433W 8432 01573 0105 +165 +147 192024 024 012 000 00
030500 1634N 06431W 8434 01570 0106 +165 +149 190024 025 011 001 00
030530 1634N 06430W 8433 01573 0106 +166 +149 186024 024 014 000 00
030600 1634N 06428W 8433 01572 0107 +164 +153 187024 024 013 000 00
030630 1634N 06426W 8430 01575 0108 +165 +152 189023 024 014 000 00
030700 1634N 06425W 8434 01571 0108 +165 +153 190023 023 013 000 00
030730 1634N 06423W 8435 01573 0110 +162 +160 188022 024 015 000 00
030800 1634N 06421W 8434 01573 0109 +164 +156 183023 024 013 000 00
030830 1634N 06420W 8433 01575 0110 +164 +154 184024 024 013 000 03
$$
;

[SouthDadeFish]

Looking better with each frame:

[Recurve]

if the trend continues it will make it easier for the Keys to avoid a mass evacuation of tourists into the path of a storm. But if it misses all the islands and becomes a Cat 2 or higher, what a hit to Florida coastal real estate. Let's hope this does not turn into a catastrophe our state-funded insurance pool can't afford.

Looks like it all depends on the strength of the ridge. Irene is doing her part by ramping up and becoming more likely to be steered into a weakness.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthFLTropics]

Even though the NAM did not initialize Irene at exactly the right intensity it should not be ignored. The NAM is pretty good at sniffing out changes in ridges and weaknesses and such. We'll see what happens with the GFS here in a few minutes and see if it follows suit. I think the slowing of Irene a bit and the fact that it has marched more westward may well impact the models once again.

SFT

[SouthFLTropics]

Just looking at this new path from the NHC... **** IF **** this storm strengthens to a Cat 2/3+ we are talking about a huge evacuation, basically all of the east coast of FL, all the way up up to NC (model support)... It **** COULD ***** get ugly.

Agreed...But this is a perfect case where people need to realize that not everyone needs to evacuate. Even with a storm bearing down if you live in a sturdy structure and are not in an evacuation zone then batten down the hatches and shelter in place. I've got my shutters ready to go, reviewed my supplies today, and I'm ready to button up the house and listen to the wind blow if need be. The reason we get so many traffic jams during evacuations is because there are many people leaving that really don't need to.

SFT

Do you have a generator? Tomorrow morning would be a good time if you can afford one...

Already have one and fired it up prior to Emily to make sure it was ready to go!

SFT

[ozonepete]

Uh oh, now the Nam is on board with a gom storm as well.not good news for us along the gulf coast.

I wouldn't worry too much, the Nam didn't start the storm out as strong as it is currently, thus limiting its usefulness in tracking the storm. Plus it's not a very good model for tracking hurricanes.

Absolutely right.

[ozonepete]

Even though the NAM did not initialize Irene at exactly the right intensity it should not be ignored. The NAM is pretty good at sniffing out changes in ridges and weaknesses and such. We'll see what happens with the GFS here in a few minutes and see if it follows suit. I think the slowing of Irene a bit and the fact that it has marched more westward may well impact the models once again.

SFT

From the 11PM discussion:
WHILE THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CENTER APPEARED TO HAVE SLOWED ON RADAR IMAGERY AS THE CYCLONE ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING HOURS... THE LONG TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD 285 DEGREES AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS.

[Dave]

[pavelbure224]

Max Mayfield said if they put up watches for SE Fla it will be sometimes on Tuesday afternoon

[bella_may]

Uh oh, now the Nam is on board with a gom storm as well.not good news for us along the gulf coast.

I wouldn't worry too much, the Nam didn't start the storm out as strong as it is currently, thus limiting its usefulness in tracking the storm. Plus it's not a very good model for tracking hurricanes.

Maybe not so good at predicting the track,but its always pretty good at sniffing out ridges and weaknesses

[wxsouth]

Even though the NAM did not initialize Irene at exactly the right intensity it should not be ignored. The NAM is pretty good at sniffing out changes in ridges and weaknesses and such. We'll see what happens with the GFS here in a few minutes and see if it follows suit. I think the slowing of Irene a bit and the fact that it has marched more westward may well impact the models once again.

SFT

Problem is, its the intensity of the storm that is a major key to whether or not it moves north. There IS a weakness in the NAM right along the east coast. However, the storm in the NAM is too weak/shallow to be drawn north into the weakness. A stronger storm in the NAM would likely be much farther north. With that said, if Irene does take a beating over Hispaniola, and is much weaker in 48-60 hours...a more southern track might be a possibility.

[ozonepete]

Uh oh, now the Nam is on board with a gom storm as well.not good news for us along the gulf coast.

I wouldn't worry too much, the Nam didn't start the storm out as strong as it is currently, thus limiting its usefulness in tracking the storm. Plus it's not a very good model for tracking hurricanes.

Maybe not so good at predicting the track,but its always pretty good at sniffing out ridges and weaknesses

How did you know that?

[Evil Jeremy]

Uh oh, now the Nam is on board with a gom storm as well.not good news for us along the gulf coast.

I wouldn't worry too much, the Nam didn't start the storm out as strong as it is currently, thus limiting its usefulness in tracking the storm. Plus it's not a very good model for tracking hurricanes.

1: I agree TDT, I wouldn't worry much because the NAM puts this in the Gulf.
2: Global models always underestimate intensity. The NAM starting out with 1008mb isn't abnormal.
3: It's not good for tracking hurricanes, but for showing the synoptics, and hinting at model trends, it is useful.

[Tampa_God]

Max Mayfield said if they put up watches for SE Fla it will be sometimes on Tuesday afternoon

I say sooner, by late tomorrow. But I don't want to question Mayfield.

[Recurve]

Really cold tops breaking out over the center convection.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220319
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 32 20110822
030900 1635N 06418W 8429 01583 0112 +165 +151 177023 024 /// /// 03
030930 1637N 06419W 8433 01575 0110 +165 +149 178022 023 015 000 03
031000 1638N 06420W 8430 01576 0107 +167 +145 176023 024 017 001 00
031030 1639N 06421W 8446 01560 0109 +150 //// 174023 025 023 002 01
031100 1640N 06423W 8428 01578 0108 +164 +152 180023 023 015 000 00
031130 1641N 06424W 8432 01574 0106 +165 +150 179023 023 016 000 00
031200 1643N 06425W 8433 01572 0105 +167 +151 178024 024 018 000 00
031230 1644N 06427W 8432 01573 0103 +168 +148 178025 025 018 001 00
031300 1645N 06428W 8433 01572 0104 +168 +147 180025 026 018 000 00
031330 1647N 06429W 8432 01571 0104 +168 +144 178026 027 019 001 00
031400 1648N 06430W 8432 01573 0103 +167 +145 181026 026 022 000 00
031430 1649N 06432W 8433 01568 0102 +168 +144 181026 027 025 001 00
031500 1650N 06433W 8432 01570 0103 +164 +150 183026 026 026 002 00
031530 1652N 06434W 8431 01569 0104 +161 +153 179026 027 027 003 00
031600 1653N 06436W 8432 01568 0099 +169 +149 182026 027 028 004 00
031630 1654N 06437W 8434 01566 0100 +165 +150 187027 028 028 006 00
031700 1655N 06438W 8434 01565 0099 +165 +143 186029 030 028 006 00
031730 1657N 06439W 8437 01562 0099 +165 +150 188027 027 027 006 00
031800 1658N 06441W 8432 01566 0094 +170 +148 183027 028 027 003 00
031830 1659N 06442W 8430 01567 0095 +168 +149 182027 028 026 001 00
$$
;

[Adoquín]

People, it is really blowing here in Old San Juan, increasingly with serious gusting. Not as much rain yet but when it comes, there is some lighting too. You can tell the storm is strenghtening just by the sound of that wind increasingly howling. My greatest fear is it is slowing down in forward speed. 10 inches of rain was the last I read. if it verifies, it will be a disaster. Have not posted all day because of preps. We are down to the last details. Power is already getting unstable. I will try to post some pictures I took earlier, should Irene permit and from tomoroow when it stops, if it stops tomorrow. All other folks in Puerto Rico, do not underestimate the puch of a strenghtening storm. Remember Marilyn. And be safe.[/quote]