ATL: IRENE - Models

[chris_fit]

00Z GFS running soon this should be fun, will it flip flop?

How soon is soon? :-P Is there a chart that tells you what time each model starts?

[Ivanhater]

hmmm beginning if a westward shift? Ridge looks stronger....

I don't care where this hits...if this misses the Islands or even hits them for a short period..the models are showing a monster for someone

[SeminoleWind]

00Z GFS running soon this should be fun, will it flip flop?

How soon is soon? :-P Is there a chart that tells you what time each model starts?

Yes Sir rite here.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html

[StormTracker]

NHC's track shifts ever so slightly to the right(east)compared to the 8pm graphic!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204412.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents
Sorry, still haven't learned how to use imageshack yet!

[maxintensity]

NAM was fun but we need GFS and ECMWF to flip. It's much more difficult to get Euro to flip when your talking inside of 120 hours. That model is a beast. We'll see though.

[Ivanhater]

BTW...it is a blessing in this did not get in the Gulf...the models that did show that solution had a real monster...However, if this gets north if the Islands it could be really bad for the lower south east coast...an area not used to strong systems

[BigB0882]

Am I seeing things or does the NAM move Irene southwest a little between 81 and 84 hours?

[gatorcane]

Anybody who has been following the FIM model, knows it has done quite well with system, as good as the GFS or ECMWF so far.

And the NHC mentions it finally!

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE RIGHT...TOWARD BUT STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE FIM MODEL PROVIDED BY THE
HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT.

[northjaxpro]

BTW...it is a blessing in this did not get in the Gulf...the models that did show that solution had a real monster...However, if this gets north if the Islands it could be really bad for the lower south east coast...an area not used to strong systems

Yes Ivanhater, this is certainly my biggest fear for sure. It could get very ugly for somewhere in the lower SE.U.S coast area.

[SouthernBreeze]

NAM was fun but we need GFS and ECMWF to flip. It's much more difficult to get Euro to flip when your talking inside of 120 hours. That model is a beast. We'll see though.

another forum mentioned that the NAM started with Irene at 1008mb, so results may not be too accurate. Anybody know more on this?

[SunnyThoughts]

BTW...it is a blessing in this did not get in the Gulf...the models that did show that solution had a real monster...However, if this gets north if the Islands it could be really bad for the lower south east coast...an area not used to strong systems

Michael, not so sure the gulf scenario is off the table yet. I hope it is, and it seems to be from the model runs today for sure. But as long as just one model has it headed gulf bound, it worries me. I sure don't want it in the gulf, I hate it for anyone who is going to have to deal with it, but its looking like a done deal that SOMEWHERE in the SE or East coast is going to have to deal with something possibly more than a minimal cane. Next few sets of model runs especially after those G-IV flights will tell the tale I think.

[Turtle]

I guess since I am in Texas, I am safe from this. I heard that the high over Texas is moving west (showers formed around our area) so perhaps we will have a better chance with the next tropical event.

[TwisterFanatic]

NAM was fun but we need GFS and ECMWF to flip. It's much more difficult to get Euro to flip when your talking inside of 120 hours. That model is a beast. We'll see though.

another forum mentioned that the NAM started with Irene at 1008mb, so results may not be too accurate. Anybody know more on this?

Yes, the NAM initialized at 1008mb, but I'm not really looking at track on the NAM, but more so the setup.

[SouthDadeFish]

Anybody who has been following the FIM model, knows it has done quite well with system, as good as the GFS or ECMWF so far.

And the NHC mentions it finally!

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE RIGHT...TOWARD BUT STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE FIM MODEL PROVIDED BY THE
HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT.

Yeah I noticed that too! Shout out to the FIM model! It's made it to the big time!

[chris_fit]

00Z GFS running soon this should be fun, will it flip flop?

How soon is soon? :-P Is there a chart that tells you what time each model starts?

Yes Sir rite here.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html

Fantastic Site. Thank You!

[gatorcane]

Anybody who has been following the FIM model, knows it has done quite well with system, as good as the GFS or ECMWF so far.

And the NHC mentions it finally!

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE RIGHT...TOWARD BUT STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE FIM MODEL PROVIDED BY THE
HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT.

Info on the FIM model (global model):

"A unique combination of 3 numerical design features
Icosahedral horizontal grid, mostly hexagons except for 12 pentagons ("I" in FIM)
Isentropic-sigma hybrid vertical coordinate, adaptive, concentrates around frontal zones, tropopause, similar to RUC model ("F" for Flow-following in FIM)
Finite-volume horizontal transport (Also under "F", for "finite-volume" in FIM)"

http://fim.noaa.gov/

FIM at 102 hours:

[Javlin]

BTW...it is a blessing in this did not get in the Gulf...the models that did show that solution had a real monster...However, if this gets north if the Islands it could be really bad for the lower south east coast...an area not used to strong systems

That has been my concern all day that once the relocation was finished it was back to a W movement.The last two fixes had Irene 2mins N and 18mins W and everything and I mean everything has moved 270-280' through this region for the last month!We just saw Harvey go W an ULL is out front W-WSW why not Irene?

[jpigott]

GFS should be starting momentarily

[ROCK]

BTW...it is a blessing in this did not get in the Gulf...the models that did show that solution had a real monster...However, if this gets north if the Islands it could be really bad for the lower south east coast...an area not used to strong systems

blessing this one didnt....but we are not done yet and the GOM is baking...now back to Talkin Tropics forum...

[Rgv20]

FWIW 12zJMA was identical to GFS&ECMWF in regards to Irene's track. For those that dont no JMA is the Japanese Global Forecast Model.