Look out North Dakota/Manitoba.......

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

And now the province of Manitoba is in the cross hairs (they are scrambling to figure out a way to drain a lake....FAST) All that flow naturally from Saskatchewan ( we have a number of overflowing rivers) that didn't head down to Minot but they do drain into Manitoba, for example the North and South Saskatchewan Rivers that come together to form the Saskatchewan River. are at heights I never ever thought I'd see:



"Originating on the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains of Alberta and Montana, the Saskatchewan River Basin extends from the continental divide through Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba to a vast inland sea – Lake Winnipeg, the eleventh largest freshwater lake in the world. The name Saskatchewan is taken from the Cree Indian word, kisiskâciwanisîpiy, meaning ‘swift-flowing river’. Although it is part of the larger Saskatchewan-Nelson system, which flows into Hudson Bay, the Saskatchewan River system itself is the fourth longest in North America. The river travels about 1940 kilometres from the Rocky Mountains to Lake Winnipeg. It drains a surface area of some 405,864 square kilometres – almost the size of France."



, as well as our dam releases, the dam releases and the increased flow from rains in Minot are also now heading to Manitoba (if they don't find a way of pulling that plug Lake Agassiz http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Agassiz may indeed be well on it's way to establishing itself on the prairies once again).:


The View from the West

Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION
Pulling the plug on Lake Manitoba

By: Scott Forbes



In this two-part series, Scott Forbes, a behavioural ecologist at the University of Winnipeg, examines what might be done to lower Lake Manitoba water levels. He has owned lakeside (now lake) property at Twin Beaches for the last dozen years.

Bill Rannie, my colleague at the University of Winnipeg -- a hydrologist and quiet sage -- noted that this year was the third highest flood recorded on the Red River but that you didn't hear much about it. His point was that we have prepared so well for high water on the Red River that we now handle near record levels with relative ease.

Not so in the Assiniboine basin where we are still in the midst of disastrous flooding, with the worst yet to come along the Souris and around Lake Manitoba.

Forecasters have referred to this year's flooding on the Assiniboine a one-in-350 year event. This is a mathematical construct based upon models of water level variability, not a chronicle of history. Indeed it is quite probable that the Assiniboine has reached comparable levels four times in the last 175 years -- in 1826, 1852, 1882 and 2011. I say probable because we did not have modern flow gauges along our rivers in the 19th century and have to rely upon imperfect observations about the extent and timing of flooding.

The flood of 1882 contains lessons we might learn from today. It was similar to 2011, with high water on both the Souris and main stem of the Assiniboine. The Assiniboine overflowed its banks near Portage la Prairie and some of that water traveled overland to Lake Manitoba. The same thing would have happened this year without the Portage Diversion.

In 1882, Lake Manitoba water levels rose at least as high as the current level of 817 feet. It was then that something interesting happened. Water from the southeast corner of the lake started to flow back to the Assiniboine, reentering the river about 30 kilometres east of Portage la Prairie.

The Assiniboine falls in elevation as it moves from west to east. South of Portage la Prairie it is higher than Lake Manitoba (which is why the Portage Diversion works), but downstream near St. Eustache the Assiniboine is about 20 to 30 feet lower than Lake Manitoba depending on the time of year.

In 1882, at least some of the water from Lake Manitoba traveled back to the Assiniboine through the Long Lake Channel. It runs from west to east and empties in to the Assiniboine near St. Eustache.

What we now call the Long Lake Lateral Drain was somewhere between 4,000 and 7,000 years ago a channel of the Assiniboine.

Is the fact that the Assiniboine River has meandered through different channels over the last few thousand years merely a historical curiosity or might it be something more?

Today Lake Manitoba continues to expand and floodwaters creep toward Portage la Prairie from the south end of the lake. Lake Manitoba is now less than four kilometres from the upper reaches of the Long Lake Lateral Drain just south of Highway 227 and east of Oakland. It will get closer as the lake continues to rise over the next month.

There is no obvious reason why Lake Manitoba could not be reconnected to this ancient river bed -- with a bit of help from heavy equipment to move some dirt -- to provide a new and temporary outlet for the flood waters.

A similar possibility might also exist in the north. Lake Manitoba at a level of 817 feet extends beyond its normal banks northeast to Highway 6 at Steep Rock Junction. From there it is a downhill run into Birch Bay on Lake St. Martin, suggesting another possible path for water to exit Lake Manitoba.

Lake Manitoba is now almost certain to reach 818 feet in coming weeks. The flood waters that have devastated Minot, N.D., will reach us in early July and that water will be shunted north into Lake Manitoba via the Portage Diversion. The diversion will need to remain open through July and as long as it is, Lake Manitoba will continue to rise.

Given that Lake Manitoba this fall will be about 30 feet higher than the exit of the Long Lake Lateral Drain into the Assiniboine River, if we create the connection between the two, gravity should do the rest.

Right now the lower Assiniboine is full to the brim and can carry no extra water without overtopping its banks. But in two months time when our summer floods have mercifully abated, it will have ample surplus capacity to carry more water until next April when its levels begins to rise anew. If we could move 5,000 cubic feet per second from Lake Manitoba through the Long Lake Drain from September through March, that would lower the level of Lake Manitoba almost two feet.

I don't know if we can get that much water through the Long Lake Drain. But we should find out and soon. And we should also find out if there are alternate pathways from Lake Manitoba to the south and north that would help pull the plug on the lake. The reason is simple. Without a new exit, the level of Lake Manitoba is not going to drop much any time soon.

High water levels on Lake Winnipegosis guarantee that Lake Manitoba will experience high inflows from its main tributary, the Waterhen River, for an extended period. A rough guess is that the Waterhen and other smaller inputs will account for 12,000 to 17,000 cfs of inflow until next year. The Fairford Water Control Structure has a maximum outflow capacity of just over 20,000 cfs, though that goes up and down with the lake level. A ballpark estimate of the surplus outflow capacity of the Fairford Water Constrol Structure might be 5,000 cfs between August and next April, perhaps a bit more depending on how quickly Waterhen flows subside.

Even if the Fairford Water Control Structure could remain wide open from August until next April (ice conditions might make this impossible) a surplus outflow of 5,000 cfs would only drop Lake Manitoba water levels about two feet. And only then if we get lucky.

The other main outflow from the lake is evaporation. It normally accounts for just under half the water loss from the lake over the year. But evaporation is counterbalanced by precipitation that accounts for 43 per cent of the normal inflow to the lake. To compare it to stream flow, evaporation is the rough equivalent of an outlet releasing 2750 cfs of water year round, though it would really only occur during the ice-free season. Precipitation represents the rough equivalent of about 2500 cfs of input year round.

If we got a wet, cool summer and fall, evaporation may not lower the lake level at all, as precipitation would exceed evaporative losses. If we catch a break (and we haven't so far) with a hot, dry summer and fall, evaporation might drop the lake one to 1-1/2 feet. Between evaporation and a maximum outflow from a wide-open Fairford Water Control Structure over the fall and winter, even in the best case Lake Manitoba will still sit well above its flood level of 814 feet next April when high river flows arrive again.

This year's flood damage around Lake Manitoba has easily surpassed a quarter billion dollars. If we are to avoid continued flooding into next year and beyond, we need to find a new path to dump water from Lake Manitoba and soon.

As a rising Lake Manitoba starts to bleed water through new exits at both the south and north ends of the lake, it might just be telling us where to look.

TOMORROW: Diversion

somewhat corrected sentences I hurriedly put up prior to heading to work.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I've posted this a couple of times in the Canadian thread but thought it too should go here (it shows why Minot was flooded and why Saskatchewan couldn't hold the water back....the last few seconds/minute shows the amount of water heading to Rafferty dam and the amount of water the southeast corner of this province was blessed with and is still receiving).

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EdEQaN52n6g&feature=player_embedded#![/youtube]

[vbhoutex]

Can we please have about half of that for Texas?
That is incredible!!! Hopefully now your weather won't go all the way to what we have!!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Can we please have about half of that for Texas?
That is incredible!!! Hopefully now your weather won't go all the way to what we have!!

I hope not but living here we know it will happen sooner or later:
(right now I'm a little more concerned that we might have a repeat of this year if La Nina pops up again).

INDEPTH: AGRICULTURE
Drought of 2002
CBC News Online | August 6, 2004

To those who live on Canada's Prairies, water is priceless. The drought that hit Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Alberta in 2002 seared crops and left livestock without feed or water.

David Phillips of Environment Canada told The Western Producer, a Canadian agriculture newspaper, that the drought across the southern Prairies is the worst on record.

Peter Leavitt, a biologist at the University of Regina, has studied the frequency, intensity and duration of drought over the past 800 years through fossils. He told CBC News Online that he believes the Prairies could relive the drought of the 1930s within the next 30 years.

Specifically, Leavitt found that the odds of a drought are highest in southern Alberta. The province faces a 42 per cent chance of severe drought by 2030 while central Saskatchewan faces a 25 per cent chance. "I think that (diversification) is definitely the right decision for these farmers. By changing how you farm you are not putting all of your eggs in one basket," he said.

Timeline

June 6, 2002:
Canada's Western premiers call for a national debate on climate change after a meeting in Dawson City, Yukon.

June 11, 2002:
The Prairies are hit with flooding after a long, dry spring. Washed out roads and flooded farms caused some towns to declare a state of emergency.
» CBC STORY: Flooding hits Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario

June 20, 2002:
Prime Minister Jean Chrétien announces a new farm aid bill to help agriculture in Canada. It proposes a cost-sharing agreement with the provinces that will provide assistance to those struggling with drought, flooding, low crop-yields or other challenges. The deal is worth $5.2 billion over six years, with 40 per cent coming from the provinces.
» CBC STORY: PM makes last minute change to new agricultural policy

June 27, 2002:
Some provincial agriculture ministers sign on to the federal farm aid package but Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Quebec say they can't afford to buy into it.
» CBC STORY: Some provinces turn down Ottawa's farm aid plan

June 29, 2002:
Because of the dry conditions, fires burn out of control in Saskatchewan and northern Alberta, forcing people out of their homes and leaving firefighters praying for rain.
» CBC STORY: Two fires merge, threaten Sask. communities

July 12, 2002:
Ottawa sends a message to Prairie farmers to diversify their crops in order to survive the drought. The government tells them to start raising more livestock and to abandon many of their crops.

July 17, 2002:
Alberta announces an aid program for farmers across the province: $324 million in specialized drought aid, to be divided among farmers depending on the size of their farm.
» CBC STORY: Drought relief package for Alberta

Aug. 8, 2002:
Livestock producers in Alberta receive the first shipment of donated hay in the Hay West campaign, bringing hay from Eastern Canada to the Prairies.

Aug. 13, 2002:
Natural Resources Canada warns that global warming presents a long-term threat to Canada's water supply. It says more prairie droughts are possible, together with lower lake levels and increased conflict over water.

Aug. 19, 2002:
Agriculture minister Lyle Vanclief announces an extra $2.2 million in drought relief. The money goes to pay for rail shipments as part of the Hay West campaign.

Aug. 23, 2002:
Statistics Canada estimates that the 2002 harvest will be one of the worst in Canadian history. In Alberta, spring wheat yields were expected to drop 50 per cent from 2001, barley by 44 per cent and canola by 57 per cent. Overall, Statscan estimated the wheat crop would be the smallest since 1974. But Ralph Goodale, the cabinet minister responsible for the Wheat Board, says the figures do not convince him that farmers need more aid.
» CBC STORY: Prairie crops to be smallest in decades: Statistics Canada

Aug. 25, 2002:
Companies on the Vancouver waterfront lock out about 600 members of the Grain Workers Union during a contract dispute. But the lockout is not expected to have a major effect on the movement of grain because the drought means very little grain is being shipped.

Aug. 27, 2002:
Some Alberta ranchers buy pasture land in Saskatchewan, which has not been hit as hard by the drought.

Sept. 6, 2002:
The Canadian Wheat Board drops out of world markets, because the drought means there is not enough wheat to sell to new customers.
» CBC STORY: Wheat Board pulls out of world markets

Sept. 17, 2002:
The Saskatchewan Wheat Pool cuts 200 jobs, many at head office, because of reduced sales and the need to cut costs.
» CBC STORY: Saskatchewan Wheat Pool cutting 200 jobs