ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

I can't really make out an eye, is it me or do the IR frames look like the center is about to make land fall in PR?

[ALhurricane]

Likely very very close to hurricane strength. The intensifying nature of the storm is going to enhance the gust factor across Puerto Rico overnight.

[SouthDadeFish]

Irene is becoming a compact little beast:

[Hurricaneman]

Its basicly making landfall or if not in the next 15 minutes

[CrazyC83]

Does the Dominican Republic own any radars? Otherwise it could be a while until it gets into Cuban radar range...

[eastcoastFL]

Irene is still moving west for now.

West seems to be a friend and enemy. west means more land interaction and west also means closer to florida.

[HURAKAN]

Does the Dominican Republic own any radars? Otherwise it could be a while until it gets into Cuban radar range...

1 in Punta Cana and it's down

[SouthFloridawx]

It's about 20 miles from the coast.

[eastcoastFL]

Its basicly making landfall or if not in the next 15 minutes

Thought so. Thanks!

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220359
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 36 20110822
034900 1813N 06533W 8433 01489 0007 +170 //// 094054 055 051 000 01
034930 1814N 06532W 8432 01492 0009 +170 //// 096053 054 051 000 01
035000 1814N 06531W 8433 01494 0013 +170 //// 096056 057 062 006 05
035030 1815N 06530W 8430 01500 0020 +164 //// 100055 056 055 001 01
035100 1816N 06529W 8438 01500 0027 +165 //// 102053 053 053 003 05
035130 1817N 06529W 8433 01504 //// +150 //// 099054 055 047 004 05
035200 1819N 06531W 8429 01510 //// +148 //// 096062 063 046 005 01
035230 1820N 06532W 8436 01506 0039 +154 //// 093060 064 043 002 01
035300 1821N 06534W 8426 01519 0045 +150 //// 094062 064 040 002 01
035330 1823N 06535W 8435 01510 0041 +157 //// 093062 064 069 013 05
035400 1824N 06537W 8442 01509 0048 +150 //// 093059 060 046 004 01
035430 1826N 06538W 8432 01523 0051 +161 //// 092058 058 037 003 01
035500 1827N 06540W 8433 01527 0056 +162 +158 088056 058 038 001 00
035530 1828N 06541W 8434 01528 0058 +166 +148 086055 056 038 004 00
035600 1830N 06542W 8433 01533 0063 +160 +152 087055 055 038 005 00
035630 1831N 06544W 8434 01532 0067 +156 +155 087053 053 039 007 00
035700 1832N 06545W 8429 01541 0072 +153 //// 086051 052 039 006 01
035730 1834N 06546W 8434 01535 0071 +155 //// 083049 049 037 005 01
035800 1835N 06548W 8441 01528 //// +146 //// 083048 050 036 005 01
035830 1836N 06549W 8432 01540 0074 +151 //// 085051 052 040 004 01
$$
;

64 kt FL (69 kt SFMR flagged)

[CrazyC83]

What for the landfall intensity? Based on the wind reports from the SE quad and the assumption stronger winds exist overland, combined with the pressure drop, I would go with 65 kt.

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 220358
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 22/03:41:30Z
B. 17 deg 54 min N
065 deg 31 min W
C. 850 mb 1348 m
D. 62 kt
E. 157 deg 9 nm
F. 247 deg 63 kt
G. 156 deg 11 nm
H. 989 mb
I. 17 C / 1523 m
J. 22 C / 1515 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0309A IRENE OB 10
MAX FL WIND 67 KT NE QUAD 01:53:40Z
;

[Adoquín]

It's about 20 miles from the coast.

There is precedent I think the 19th century. Big hurricane developed as it travelled west along the 17.9 line. Never made landafall. Great disaster as the entire island was exposed to the north side. It will be close..

[Wx_Warrior]

From JB earlier this eve:

My track is just east of FLA with strongest hit in the Carolinas since Isabel in 2003. System looking more like Floyd to me.

Expect track to be midway between Floyd ( 99) and Cleo ( 64) for FLa as worst of the hit is further north.

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 220358
XXAA 72048 99179 70655 04375 99989 27418 21004 00598 ///// /////
92593 24828 00000 85336 22243 13008 88999 77999
31313 09608 80341
61616 AF302 0309A IRENE OB 11
62626 SPL 1791N06553W 0342 MBL WND 23503 AEV 20802 DLM WND 19502
988843 WL150 21004 084 REL 1791N06553W 034135 SPG 1791N06553W 034
222 =
XXBB 72048 99179 70655 04375 00989 27418 11942 24208 22911 25040
33850 22243 44843 21643
21212 00989 21004 11887 19001 22863 14508 33843 12008
31313 09608 80341
61616 AF302 0309A IRENE OB 11
62626 SPL 1791N06553W 0342 MBL WND 23503 AEV 20802 DLM WND 19502
988843 WL150 21004 084 REL 1791N06553W 034135 SPG 1791N06553W 034
222 =
;

[jpigott]

new VDM

989 mb

MAX FL WIND 67 KT NE QUAD 01:53:40Z

[Dave]

DECODED VDM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 03:58Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 3:41:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°54'N 65°31'W (17.9N 65.5167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 50 miles (81 km) to the SE (135°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,348m (4,423ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the SSE (157°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 247° at 63kts (From the WSW at ~ 72.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SSE (156°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 989mb (29.21 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,515m (4,970ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph) in the northeast quadrant at 1:53:40Z

[supercane]

Only 2 stations reporting from Puerto Rico, current sustained winds 24 kt with gusts to 32 kt at San Juan, 27kt with gusts to 47kt at Ceiba, with peak wind gusts to 34 kt at San Juan and 47kt at Ceiba, and San Juan pressure 1006.1 mb:
Roosevelt Roads, Ceiba: TJNR 220358Z AUTO 06027G47KT 4SM -RA FEW008 BKN013 OVC019 25/ A2958 RMK AO2 PK WND 07047/0355 PRESFR P0000 TSNO
San Juan: TJSJ 220356Z 05024G32KT 4SM RA SCT015 BKN034 OVC060 26/24 A2971 RMK AO2 PK WND 03037/0334 SLP061 P0004 T02610244 403110256

[Dave]

[Recurve]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 03:58Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 3:41:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°54'N 65°31'W (17.9N 65.5167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 50 miles (81 km) to the SE (135°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,348m (4,423ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the SSE (157°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 247° at 63kts (From the WSW at ~ 72.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SSE (156°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 989mb (29.21 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,515m (4,970ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph) in the northeast quadrant at 1:53:40Z