ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 03:58Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 11

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 4Z on the 22nd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 17.9N 65.5W
Location: 51 miles (82 km) to the SE (134°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Marsden Square: 043 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
989mb (29.21 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 210° (from the SSW) 4 knots (5 mph)
1000mb -98m (-322 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 593m (1,946 ft) 24.8°C (76.6°F) 22.0°C (71.6°F) 0° (from the N) 0 knots (0 mph)
850mb 1,336m (4,383 ft) 22.2°C (72.0°F) 17.9°C (64.2°F) 130° (from the SE) 8 knots (9 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 3:41Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Splash Location: 17.91N 65.53W
Splash Time: 3:42Z

Release Location: 17.91N 65.53W View map)
Release Time: 3:41:35Z

Splash Location: 17.91N 65.53W (
Splash Time: 3:42:22Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 235° (from the SW)
- Wind Speed: 3 knots (3 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 2 knots (2 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 988mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 210° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 4 knots (5 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
989mb (Surface) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 25.6°C (78.1°F)
942mb 24.2°C (75.6°F) 23.4°C (74.1°F)
911mb 25.0°C (77.0°F) 21.0°C (69.8°F)
850mb 22.2°C (72.0°F) 17.9°C (64.2°F)
843mb 21.6°C (70.9°F) 17.3°C (63.1°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
989mb (Surface) 210° (from the SSW) 4 knots (5 mph)
887mb 190° (from the S) 1 knots (1 mph)
863mb 145° (from the SE) 8 knots (9 mph)
843mb 120° (from the ESE) 8 knots (9 mph)




[CrazyC83]

Enough confidence to call it Hurricane Irene? If so, I would expect a TCU or Special to come out.

[SouthDadeFish]

Enough confidence to call it Hurricane Irene? If so, I would expect a TCU or Special to come out.

Still haven't found winds supporting hurricane strength. They may be on the way though after that pressure drop.

[Recurve]

Highest surface wind I've seen is 55 knots, haven't checked all the obs though

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220409
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 37 20110822
035900 1838N 06551W 8436 01538 0075 +155 //// 087048 051 037 005 01
035930 1839N 06552W 8432 01543 0074 +159 //// 092046 046 038 006 01
040000 1840N 06553W 8434 01542 0076 +160 +159 090044 045 039 003 00
040030 1841N 06555W 8433 01546 0077 +160 +159 089043 043 038 001 00
040100 1843N 06556W 8433 01545 0079 +159 +156 087042 043 038 002 00
040130 1844N 06557W 8433 01547 0080 +164 +146 085044 044 040 002 00
040200 1845N 06559W 8433 01549 0083 +160 +157 085045 045 041 004 00
040230 1847N 06600W 8434 01551 0085 +160 +156 083043 044 040 003 00
040300 1848N 06601W 8434 01552 0084 +162 +154 075043 043 038 003 00
040330 1849N 06603W 8433 01552 //// +149 //// 071044 047 040 007 01
040400 1850N 06604W 8431 01553 0089 +149 //// 069047 050 038 006 01
040430 1852N 06605W 8439 01551 0090 +160 +148 069052 053 037 005 03
040500 1853N 06605W 8434 01553 0087 +165 +143 071049 050 /// /// 03
040530 1853N 06604W 8427 01559 0086 +161 +155 079047 048 044 004 03
040600 1853N 06602W 8431 01553 0084 +163 +158 083045 045 042 003 00
040630 1853N 06601W 8433 01551 0082 +165 +161 086043 044 042 002 00
040700 1854N 06600W 8433 01552 0085 +161 //// 086043 043 041 003 01
040730 1854N 06558W 8429 01557 0088 +157 //// 083042 044 041 006 01
040800 1854N 06557W 8427 01560 0089 +156 //// 078043 046 042 009 01
040830 1854N 06556W 8432 01554 0084 +163 +159 072044 046 044 007 00
$$
;

A challenge trying to stay over water.

[Adoquín]

[quote="CrazyC83"]Enough confidence to call it Hurricane Irene? If so, I would expect a TCU or Special to come out.[/quote

it is time pressrue droppimg fast, still many people up. the word hurricane will elicit attention for procrastinators.

[CrazyC83]

Enough confidence to call it Hurricane Irene? If so, I would expect a TCU or Special to come out.

Still haven't found winds supporting hurricane strength. They may be on the way though after that pressure drop.

62 kt in the SE quad (normally the weakest!) is the closest. An assumption could be made it is stronger to the north and missed by Recon, but I would want to see more data.

[chris_fit]

Clearly further W on this run... close to SE FL @ 90hr


Edit: Meant for model thread...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal096.gif

[SouthDadeFish]

Enough confidence to call it Hurricane Irene? If so, I would expect a TCU or Special to come out.

Still haven't found winds supporting hurricane strength. They may be on the way though after that pressure drop.

62 kt in the SE quad (normally the weakest!) is the closest. An assumption could be made it is stronger to the north and missed by Recon, but I would want to see more data.

Yeah but the NHC isn't a big fan of assumptions. I'm with you though.

[NDG]

Better than nothing, I guess.

[Ptarmigan]

Irene looks like a hurricane by now.

[Fego]

Safe here with my family and with power and internet. I don't know if somebody posted this link, it's a alternate radar page that covers Puerto Rico.
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... rainsnow=0

[Dave]

[Recurve]

Where did you see 62 knots? Didn't see that on the recon plot I'm watching...is that at the surface?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 220419
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 38 20110822
040900 1854N 06554W 8438 01546 0088 +154 //// 078050 053 044 011 01
040930 1854N 06553W 8433 01551 //// +138 //// 088055 057 045 010 01
041000 1854N 06552W 8435 01549 //// +138 //// 087050 051 049 010 01
041030 1854N 06551W 8427 01556 //// +138 //// 086051 054 050 014 01
041100 1854N 06550W 8434 01548 //// +131 //// 092059 061 049 016 01
041130 1854N 06548W 8434 01550 //// +139 //// 094055 057 045 010 01
041200 1854N 06547W 8433 01553 0093 +150 //// 096052 053 045 008 01
041230 1855N 06546W 8431 01556 0098 +141 //// 091047 049 046 010 01
041300 1855N 06545W 8436 01550 0096 +145 //// 097043 044 045 011 01
041330 1855N 06543W 8433 01551 //// +140 //// 095043 044 044 014 01
041400 1855N 06542W 8438 01545 //// +135 //// 093049 051 047 019 01
041430 1855N 06541W 8438 01543 0091 +146 //// 099047 049 041 007 01
041500 1855N 06539W 8429 01554 0091 +151 //// 099049 049 042 006 01
041530 1855N 06538W 8431 01553 0089 +154 //// 103049 050 042 004 01
041600 1855N 06537W 8430 01556 0089 +154 //// 101048 049 042 004 01
041630 1855N 06536W 8433 01551 0089 +156 //// 102048 050 041 003 01
041700 1855N 06534W 8425 01561 0091 +153 //// 102046 047 043 004 01
041730 1855N 06533W 8438 01549 0091 +155 //// 103046 047 043 005 01
041800 1856N 06532W 8432 01555 0092 +153 //// 102045 047 043 005 01
041830 1856N 06530W 8438 01547 0095 +148 //// 106050 051 044 004 01
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

Where did you see 62 knots? Didn't see that on the recon plot I'm watching...is that at the surface?

62 was an SFMR reading.

[Recurve]

Where did you see 62 knots? Didn't see that on the recon plot I'm watching...is that at the surface?

62 was an SFMR reading.

Well it's getting close then...

[Dave]

[Recurve]

Here's a recon view of the recent VDMs



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[bexar]

what are the current chances of Irene reaching super typhoon status before making a possible landfall in the CONUS?