ATL: IRENE - Models

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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3021 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:17 pm

So there you have it...futher west on this run with the core as others suggested into palm beach.
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#3022 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:18 pm

Well GFS shifted west a little on this run.

Not good :eek:
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3023 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:18 pm

blp wrote:West shift from 18z.


Good Morning,

So you think it's enought to shift the track a bit west again?
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#3024 Postby chris_fit » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:18 pm

Scary Run... up the EC of FL as a monster!
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3025 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:18 pm

GFS @ 102hr is literally like 25-50 miles off Palm Beach. This is the point people were making before. Even if the models show Irene staying off the east coast of FL, any small deviation to the west puts this thing over the peninsula....
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Re:

#3026 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:19 pm

gatorcane wrote:Well GFS shifted west a little on this run.

Not good for South Florida


Indeed!
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3027 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:19 pm

And just as I predicted the windshield wipers swing left again. I would expect another west shift at 6z and 12z followed by an east shift at 18z and tomorrow's 0z. The bottom line is it appears that the models are zeroing in on a target and that target seems to be centered on the East Coast of FLA and hitting all points north. I'm looking forward to seeing what the Euro has on tap for tonight.

SFT
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3028 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:19 pm

Are we still talking cat 1 at it's closest point to mia?
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#3029 Postby Vortex » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:19 pm

GFS shifts westfrom the 18z run....IMO, Follks in SFL and for that matter the entire peninsula had better begin preliminary hurricane preparations....
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3030 Postby SeminoleWind » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:19 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:
blp wrote:West shift from 18z.


Good Morning,

So you think it's enought to shift the track a bit west again?


i think if the euro shows this also and another gfs western run it will shift but never know.
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#3031 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:19 pm

Runs right, and I mean RIGHT along the Florida coast.
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Re:

#3032 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:19 pm

bella_may wrote:Yet another westward model trend.....



This can just as easily move more east by tomorrow though. The thing is, it's showing signs of strengthening, so as the MET just mentioned, it can have more of a northward tug on it.....I think the landfall is going to be very close to what the GFS is saying tonight (just my own opinion as someone who lives in California) :)
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3033 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:20 pm

GFS suggesting more of a threat to south Florida than the previous run. Not liking that trend at all...
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#3034 Postby bella_may » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:20 pm

Does the euro run again soon?
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3035 Postby StormClouds63 » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:20 pm

Atlantic high stronger ... trough weaker. Ridge builds in quickly. After landfall, system looks like it would stall out over N FL/S. GA.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3036 Postby blp » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:21 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:
blp wrote:West shift from 18z.


Good Morning,

So you think it's enought to shift the track a bit west again?



I think it was to be expected. Typically past three days there is some shifting in the model tracks. I would not be surprised to see the other models shift a little as well.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3037 Postby maxintensity » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:22 pm

The GOM might come back into play in the next couple of runs. GFDL HWRF and especially Euro will be very interesting.
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Re:

#3038 Postby AdamFirst » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:22 pm

bella_may wrote:Does the euro run again soon?


2 AM eastern it begins to run.
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Re:

#3039 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:22 pm

bella_may wrote:Does the euro run again soon?



I think around 3:00 am.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3040 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:22 pm

SFLcane wrote:GFS suggesting more of a threat to south Florida than the previous run. Not liking that trend at all...



I think the track is exactly like the 12z Euro.

I would say that is way too close for comfort
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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