ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[SouthFloridawx]

It appears as though Irene may be over water in a few hours...

[bahamaswx]

If she really comes off the north coast of PR you're looking at very little time over Hispaniola, if any at all.

[AdamFirst]

For the record

MESSAGE DATE: AUG 22 2011 03:26:00

THE FAA SAN JUAN WSR-88D DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR (TJUA) HAS GONE
DOWN...MOSTLY LIKELY DUE TO A LOSS OF POWER AT THE CAYEY RADAR
SITE...AS RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IRENE MOVED
ACROSS THAT AREA. WE ARE UNABLE TO RESTART THE RADAR AT THIS TIME
AND FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED. RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN.

[Dave]

Next scheduled mission...

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM IRENE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 22/12Z,18Z
B. AFXXX 0409A IRENE
C. 21/1045Z
D. 18.2N 68.2W
E. 21/1130Z TO 21/18Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


Thanks Crazy for your help tonight & didn't mean to run over you on that one VDM...thought maybe you were taking a break. See ya all tomorrow.

[Kohlecane]

It appears as though Irene may be over water in a few hours...

looks like a NW motion

[SouthFloridawx]

Those banding features are ominous...

[Texashawk]

See... to me, it seems like it's been moving west all along - but the VDMs were way south of the center circulation. This seems misleading to me.

[theweatherwatch]

From the last recon fix to the time Irene is back over water your looking at about 40 miles so in about 4 hours if she maintains the heading she is on she will be back over water in a very favorable upper level environment... Not good at all for the US East coast!

[Old-TimeCane]

If she really comes off the north coast of PR you're looking at very little time over Hispaniola, if any at all.

Looking at that radar, it sure looks as if that is what may very well happen.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like on the last few radar images like this is starting to resume its wnw course

[Evil Jeremy]

so much for skimming pr on the south side.

[Hurricaneman]

so much for skimming pr on the south side.

I have to admit, I wasnt expecting this to try to go around Puerto Rico

[Bocadude85]

so much for skimming pr on the south side.

I wonder what kind of effect this will have on the eventual track of the system

[WeatherEmperor]

The 00Z models shifted West because the center was moving more west earlier this evening. Now the center is a bit further north then expected. Could this cause the models to shift back east later today??

[summersquall]

I am beginning hearing things breaking outside

Hunker down and be safe down there...If you hear the train coming head to your safe room!

SFT

My prayers are with you. This too shall pass.

[Evil Jeremy]

The 00Z models shifted West because the center was moving more west earlier this evening. Now the center is a bit further north then expected. Could this cause the models to shift back east later today??

Irene is following the NHC path, she's not really more north than expected. Some thought she would skim pr south though. She is on track. As for the models, I expect a couple more west shifts, then maybe east again. They will kee flipping.

[summersquall]

so much for skimming pr on the south side.

I wonder what kind of effect this will have on the eventual track of the system

Looks to be moving pretty much between forecast points. (click on trop pts. to see.)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

(But, I'm not a meteorologist nor do I play one on TV.)

[WeatherEmperor]

The 00Z models shifted West because the center was moving more west earlier this evening. Now the center is a bit further north then expected. Could this cause the models to shift back east later today??

Irene is following the NHC path, she's not really more north than expected. Some thought she would skim pr south though. She is on track. As for the models, I expect a couple more west shifts, then maybe east again. They will kee flipping.

Oh okay. I guess looking at the radar too long gave the wrong idea about the movement. So it should continue WNW for now right?

[FireRat]

The NW motion might just be a temporary wobble, the models usually have a good handle on the storm's general motion for the next 48 hours.

One thing that's been bugging me is the conservative intensity forecasts, a storm as LARGE as Irene will take way longer to weaken over land compared to a regular sized and especially a small sized storm. One thing I know is that large storms take a while to crank up, but boy once they get going, they're hard to stop! I bet this one will even continue intensifying or at least maintain itself at its current strength during the next 10 hours, and once it gets out over the water...... Monster Time.

DR is not going to do much to Irene unless she stalls over Hispaniola for over 24 hours IMO.

[TwisterFanatic]

The 00Z models shifted West because the center was moving more west earlier this evening. Now the center is a bit further north then expected. Could this cause the models to shift back east later today??

They shifted because of a short-term movement? I didn't think the Models went by short-term motions.