ATL: IRENE - Models

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#3161 Postby storm4u » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:38 am

0z sounding out of bermuda shows the ridge has weakened
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Re: Re:

#3162 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:38 am

SeminoleWind wrote:absolutely hate to question the euro but you may be on to something here.



If I remember correctly, the EURO did this with Don on one to two runs. I corrected it's self in later runs.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3163 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:38 am

*saves image*

Image
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#3164 Postby SeminoleWind » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:38 am

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP168.gif

168 hr 936 near delmarva????
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#3165 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:40 am

This just seems like a odd run from the EURO. Usually doesn't go to extremes with intensity like it is doing tonight.
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#3166 Postby maxintensity » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:42 am

Euro is bringing New York into play. You just cant make this stuff up. Anyone else thank that track or maybe 50 miles west would give Katrina a run as the costliest hurricane in US history?
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#3167 Postby SeminoleWind » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:48 am

192

checking out in a hurry now

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP192.gif

this has been a odd run imo
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#3168 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 22, 2011 2:46 am

Yeah ~I think the ECM explodes Irene in such a huge way it actualy is able to latch onto the trough, a 926mbs low up there would be very rare, but for it to have bombed from 963 to 926mbs up there in 24hrs is even more unlikely.

Looks like ECM may have gone too far east this run IMO...

However to balance it out, this system has been east of the model consensus constantly so I suppose its not an impossible track either...
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3169 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Aug 22, 2011 3:42 am

6z NAM - 72 Hours: Keeps the ridge quite strong once again

Image
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3170 Postby dwsqos2 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 3:49 am

The NAM is the NAM is the NAM is the NAM, and I don't usually harp on initialization. But the NAM depicts Irene as much less organized than it actually is. The NAM doesn't even show a closed 700 mb low, and at 6Z it was blidingly obvious that Irene had a well-defined circulation at the 700 mb level.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3171 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Aug 22, 2011 3:49 am

84 hours:

Image
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3172 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Aug 22, 2011 3:52 am

dwsqos2 wrote:The NAM is the NAM is the NAM is the NAM, and I don't usually harp on initialization. But the NAM depicts Irene as much less organized than it actually is. The NAM doesn't even show a closed 700 mb low, and at 6Z it was blidingly obvious that Irene had a well-defined circulation at the 700 mb level.


I don't care about the track or the strength of Irene on the NAM. I'm looking at the Upper level Ridge & Trough.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3173 Postby dwsqos2 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 3:53 am

The NAM is kind of already busting in the very short-term as surface observations suggest that Irene is on the northern coast of Puerto Rico; SNJP4 had winds at 190 degrees at 818Z.
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#3174 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 22, 2011 4:17 am

The 00z HWRF made a pretty healthy shift west I noticed. Now just offshore Floridas east coast.

HWRF is almost always right biased

GFDL along the west coast of Florida
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3175 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 22, 2011 4:36 am

Is anyone going to post the 06z GFS???
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#3176 Postby NC George » Mon Aug 22, 2011 4:51 am

Is there an easy to see map of the Euro's track? The site I generally look for all the models on one map doesn't show it for some reason.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3177 Postby xironman » Mon Aug 22, 2011 4:52 am

It starts too far south, going to be garbage with land interaction so close. The upper air pattern may be interesting later on.

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3178 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 22, 2011 4:55 am

Ridge to the North looks to be pretty stout on the 06z 48 hr. GFS
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3179 Postby bamajammer4eva » Mon Aug 22, 2011 4:55 am

North and east of 00z at 48 hr

00z 54 hr
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110822/00/gfs_namer_054_10m_wnd_precip.gif

06z 48 hr
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110822/06/gfs_namer_048_10m_wnd_precip.gif
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3180 Postby AHS2011 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 4:57 am

Does annyone see this system going north to New England?
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