ATL: IRENE - Models

Nimbus · #3181 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:01 am

The models are playing catch up as usual. We have a hurricane that is less likely to be weakened by land interaction headed towards the southeast. Our ridge data which will be the key to track has been flip flopping from 30 millibars stronger than modeled to weaker than modeled in the Bahamas.

Hope the folks in Puerto Rico are OK.

SouthFLTropics · #3182 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:07 am

That 1018 High is camped out over North Carolina again in the 78 hour GFS...It's going to be another close run to the coast I think.

SFT

SouthFLTropics · #3183 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:10 am

84 hours...looks to be finding the weakness. Some nerve wracking days ahead for the US East Coast I'm afraid...

bamajammer4eva · #3184 Postby **bamajammer4eva** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:12 am

06z Staying farther offshore than 00z

00z 99h
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110822/00/gfs_namer_099_10m_wnd_precip.gif

06z 93h
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110822/06/gfs_namer_093_10m_wnd_precip.gif

x-y-no · #3185 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:14 am

6z GFS is slightly faster and to the right of the 0z run - also slightly stronger. Takes it thought the center of the Bahamas as opposed to the westers side of the Bahamas.

Emmett_Brown · #3186 Postby **Emmett_Brown** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:16 am

Yep, 06Z GFS is definitely further east this run. Another thing to note that it initializes poorly... has Irene off the SW tip of PR at 12Z today as a weak storm, so it is already significantly off, which would seem to suggest possible further east shifts on future runs.

vacanechaser · #3187 Postby **vacanechaser** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:22 am

Emmett_Brown wrote:Yep, 06Z GFS is definitely further east this run. Another thing to note that it initializes poorly... has Irene off the SW tip of PR at 12Z today as a weak storm, so it is already significantly off, which would seem to suggest possible further east shifts on future runs.

that would be my guess as well.. bad data in, bad data out...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

bamajammer4eva · #3188 Postby **bamajammer4eva** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:22 am

00z 132 h was near Jacksonville

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... precip.gif

06z 126h is E of Charlestpn

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... precip.gif

storm4u · #3189 Postby **storm4u** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:32 am

gfs and euro coming into agreement!! this could be a threat up here if this keeps up :eek:

Emmett_Brown · #3190 Postby **Emmett_Brown** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:34 am

bamajammer4eva wrote:00z 132 h was near Jacksonville

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... precip.gif

06z 126h is E of Charlestpn

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... precip.gif

Yeah, that is quite a big difference between runs. Has Irene moving much faster up the coast toward SC. So, the weakness in the ridge at h126 is more pronounced, which is more like the 0z Euro. Note that the trough will eventually lift out, so the thing to watch for over the next 24-48 hours is whether Irene moves fast enough. If she slows, it is possible for a much different solution in 5 days, since the ridge could build back in. However, it has to be said that the threat to SC/NC is increasing, and that the trend is E more offshore from Pen FL. Of course, this is just one run, and the NHC track is the official track...

storm4u · #3191 Postby **storm4u** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:35 am

at hr174 its about to go right over me! :double:

hurricaneCW · #3192 Postby **hurricaneCW** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:36 am

Scariest gfs run I've seen in a long time for up here, looks like a hurricane from the Carolinas to near NYC/Western LI and Eastern NJ.

#3193 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:55 am

00Z UKMET

FL Bound

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal096.gif

#3194 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:57 am

Ukmet H+120 up the west coast of Fl

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal120.gif

#3195 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:59 am

00Z GFS strong Hurricane over West Palm Beach

H+102

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal102.gif

#3196 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:02 am

Vortex wrote:00Z GFS strong Hurricane over West Palm Beach

H+102

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal102.gif

Core is offshore, but way to close.

#3197 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:02 am

GFDL 6Z over Miami:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL096.gif

#3198 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:04 am

6Z NAM right on the SE FL coast

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

#3199 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:06 am

GFDL H+102 right over the cnter of SFL....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL102.gif

#3200 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:08 am

Vortex wrote:GFDL H+102 right over the cnter of SFL....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL102.gif

gfdl is trending east for sure, looks like by the end of day all models except maybe uk will be offshore sofla

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