ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 221221
XXAA 72127 99189 70670 04387 99990 27023 16006 00593 ///// /////
92595 22815 14004 85331 20228 14508 70001 13844 24001 88999 77999
31313 09608 81159
61616 AF302 0409A IRENE OB 04
62626 EYE SPL 1886N06701W 1203 MBL WND 15005 AEV 20802 DLM WND 15
004 989697 WL150 15005 083 REL 1886N06701W 115859 SPG 1886N06701W
120247 =
XXBB 72128 99189 70670 04387 00990 27023 11952 24008 22857 20025
33850 20228 44835 21050 55755 18457 66697 13443
21212 00990 16006 11922 13504 22850 14508 33697 30501
31313 09608 81159
61616 AF302 0409A IRENE OB 04
62626 EYE SPL 1886N06701W 1203 MBL WND 15005 AEV 20802 DLM WND 15
004 989697 WL150 15005 083 REL 1886N06701W 115859 SPG 1886N06701W
120247 =
;

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 12:21Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 04

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 12Z on the 22nd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 18.9N 67.0W
Location: 70 miles (113 km) to the WNW (299°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Marsden Square: 043 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
990mb (29.23 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 24.7°C (76.5°F) 160° (from the SSE) 6 knots (7 mph)
1000mb -93m (-305 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 595m (1,952 ft) 22.8°C (73.0°F) 21.3°C (70.3°F) 140° (from the SE) 4 knots (5 mph)
850mb 1,331m (4,367 ft) 20.2°C (68.4°F) 17.4°C (63.3°F) 145° (from the SE) 8 knots (9 mph)
700mb 3,001m (9,846 ft) 13.8°C (56.8°F) 9.4°C (48.9°F) 240° (from the WSW) 1 knots (1 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 11:59Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 18.86N 67.01W
Splash Time: 12:03Z

Release Location: 18.86N 67.01W View map)
Release Time: 11:58:59Z

Splash Location: 18.86N 67.01W (
Splash Time: 12:02:47Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 150° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 5 knots (6 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 150° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 4 knots (5 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 697mb to 989mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 150° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 5 knots (6 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
990mb (Surface) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 24.7°C (76.5°F)
952mb 24.0°C (75.2°F) 23.2°C (73.8°F)
857mb 20.0°C (68.0°F) 17.5°C (63.5°F)
850mb 20.2°C (68.4°F) 17.4°C (63.3°F)
835mb 21.0°C (69.8°F) Approximately 16°C (61°F)
755mb 18.4°C (65.1°F) Approximately 11°C (52°F)
697mb 13.4°C (56.1°F) 9.1°C (48.4°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
990mb (Surface) 160° (from the SSE) 6 knots (7 mph)
922mb 135° (from the SE) 4 knots (5 mph)
850mb 145° (from the SE) 8 knots (9 mph)
697mb 305° (from the NW) 1 knots (1 mph)




[Dave]

571
URNT15 KNHC 221220
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 12 20110822
121030 1918N 06731W 6966 03107 0003 +088 +078 054042 043 046 002 00
121100 1920N 06732W 6970 03107 0011 +085 +081 058044 044 044 001 00
121130 1921N 06734W 6967 03113 0018 +082 //// 061046 048 044 002 01
121200 1922N 06735W 6968 03111 0019 +080 //// 062049 049 041 001 01
121230 1924N 06736W 6966 03118 0021 +080 //// 061048 048 037 000 05
121300 1925N 06738W 6964 03123 0030 +078 //// 063049 049 037 001 01
121330 1926N 06739W 6968 03123 0034 +079 //// 063046 046 040 003 01
121400 1928N 06740W 6968 03127 0039 +078 //// 065045 046 041 004 01
121430 1929N 06742W 6970 03127 0035 +082 +078 064048 050 041 007 03
121500 1930N 06743W 6966 03134 0039 +079 //// 068047 050 040 010 01
121530 1932N 06745W 6966 03135 0039 +083 +080 062049 050 037 002 00
121600 1933N 06746W 6962 03140 0033 +090 +068 066046 047 037 000 03
121630 1934N 06747W 6965 03140 0040 +090 +064 067043 047 037 002 00
121700 1936N 06749W 6970 03135 0046 +084 +067 067037 038 038 001 00
121730 1937N 06750W 6973 03135 0052 +080 //// 067039 040 039 001 01
121800 1938N 06751W 6964 03146 0061 +075 //// 064037 038 040 001 01
121830 1940N 06753W 6963 03152 0052 +087 +059 050034 036 038 001 00
121900 1941N 06754W 6965 03150 0053 +086 +060 054036 038 033 001 03
121930 1942N 06755W 6970 03144 0055 +085 +061 062042 042 031 000 03
122000 1944N 06757W 6965 03149 0048 +090 +058 064042 043 031 000 03
$$
;

[Dave]

925
URNT15 KNHC 221230
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 13 20110822
122030 1945N 06758W 6972 03143 0050 +091 +058 068043 045 032 000 03
122100 1946N 06800W 6966 03155 0050 +094 +051 068041 042 031 000 03
122130 1948N 06801W 6967 03152 0050 +095 +051 069040 041 032 000 00
122200 1949N 06802W 6962 03160 0051 +095 +053 072040 040 032 001 00
122230 1950N 06804W 6971 03151 0055 +095 +052 072039 039 031 000 03
122300 1952N 06805W 6967 03160 0059 +091 +055 072038 039 031 000 03
122330 1953N 06807W 6967 03158 0063 +090 +055 074040 041 030 000 03
122400 1955N 06808W 6970 03157 0066 +090 +055 073041 041 032 001 03
122430 1956N 06809W 6965 03167 0068 +088 +062 074042 043 033 001 00
122500 1957N 06811W 6970 03158 0073 +083 +067 078045 047 032 003 00
122530 1959N 06812W 6970 03160 0076 +080 +073 075048 050 033 002 00
122600 2000N 06814W 6965 03167 0077 +079 //// 072048 050 032 002 01
122630 2002N 06815W 6968 03163 0087 +072 //// 070051 052 034 003 01
122700 2003N 06817W 6966 03167 0082 +073 //// 068046 048 035 004 01
122730 2004N 06818W 6970 03162 //// +061 //// 067045 048 035 008 01
122800 2006N 06819W 6968 03165 //// +057 //// 066048 050 038 013 01
122830 2007N 06821W 6957 03177 //// +056 //// 072044 045 039 017 05
122900 2008N 06823W 6968 03165 //// +054 //// 084040 041 /// /// 05
122930 2007N 06824W 6965 03169 //// +050 //// 088041 042 /// /// 05
123000 2005N 06824W 6966 03173 //// +054 //// 082037 038 /// /// 05
$$
;

[AdamFirst]

Well, that's a pretty annoying satellite blackout.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Previous vortex messages plotted:

[NEXRAD]

Respectfully Jay, the highest mountaintops are far south of the projected path of the storm. The majority of the DR is quite flat along the northern coast. Interaction will not be a major factor as the eye/CDO will stay over open water based on the current path projections, IMHO.

http://mappery.com/maps/Hispaniola-Topo ... mthumb.jpg

Not per Google maps - the terrain of the Northern Dominican Republic consists of moderately high mountains of approximately 1,200 to 3,000 feet. Considering Mount Greylock in Western Massachusetts, where I grew up, was just over 3,000 feet and the surrounding peaks were considerably shorter yet still produced pronounced orographic effects, I see no reason why these mountains along the northern coast are "quite flat".

Also, remember that a tropical cyclone is not a point. The inflow winds that extend well outside of the storm center influence the storm structure due to moisture transport, which in-turn influences system convection (etc.). The higher peaks of the Central Hispaniola landmass will impact Irene's structure. The amount of impact will depend on how close the center comes to the landmass.

That said, I stand by my previous comment - the northern coast of the Dominican Republic is rough enough to have impact on a hurricane due to frictional effects and much moreso than a flat terrain.

- Jay
South Florida

[USTropics]

Is there data concerning what proximity to such mountains organization changes from a funneling (or strengthening) effect to a disrupting effect?

I'm unfamiliar of any empirical study of this, but am sure there exist some. That said, I've not heard of large mountains having a strengthening/funneling effect on tropical cyclones. Typically mountains cause friction which serves to reduce surface and low level winds, disrupt the surface to upper air transport system that fuels a hurricane, and can have additional consequences.

Considering Irene likely to stay along the Northern coast of the Dominican Republic, I'd anticipate the northerly winds ahead of the system to interact with the mountain chain and initially cause increased deep convection west of Irene's center due to standard uplifting winds due to the terrain interaction. As the storm moves farther west, though, the southerly flow would encounter upslope along the Hispaniola southern coast, which could cause some drying and convective weakening for the storm.

(This is unofficial information and should not be used for decision making.)

- Jay
South Florida

Respectfully Jay, the highest mountaintops are far south of the projected path of the storm. The majority of the DR is quite flat along the northern coast. Interaction will not be a major factor as the eye/CDO will stay over open water based on the current path projections, IMHO.

http://mappery.com/maps/Hispaniola-Topo ... mthumb.jpg

I also have not read anything on how mountains can improve/disrupt the flow of a tropical system but in regards to Irene I don't see much of an impact if the current forecast track proves true. If the core of the system stays on the northern coast I wouldn't anticipate much weakening. First, it will still be able to tap into a latent heat source. Also, as john stated, the northern part of Hispaniola is not as mountainous compared to the central and southern parts. As such, I don't see a large increase in friction due to land/mountain interaction to be able to disrupt Irene's core significantly.

[tgenius]

This has the look on that path of doing a David.. how likely will this affect Miami given what's transpired? I don't want to start BCP procedures at work.

[Aric Dunn]

Now that its past the islands a more west motion should start and continue. the islands last night disrupted the center a little and caused it to wobble ... hence the crazy right turn that happened. looks to be heading due west atm.

[Dave]

412
URNT15 KNHC 221240
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 14 20110822
123030 2004N 06824W 6971 03165 //// +062 //// 079038 043 041 010 01
123100 2002N 06823W 6965 03172 //// +066 //// 079044 046 038 006 01
123130 2000N 06823W 6969 03168 0085 +078 //// 077046 047 034 003 01
123200 1959N 06823W 6972 03162 0086 +076 //// 077044 045 035 002 01
123230 1957N 06823W 6966 03169 0087 +076 //// 074042 043 036 002 01
123300 1955N 06822W 6967 03166 0079 +080 //// 072041 043 036 003 01
123330 1953N 06822W 6969 03162 0079 +080 +077 073039 039 035 004 00
123400 1951N 06822W 6966 03164 0077 +080 +076 071038 038 035 003 00
123430 1950N 06821W 6970 03158 0071 +085 +075 070036 037 034 004 00
123500 1948N 06821W 6967 03161 0069 +085 +075 067034 035 035 002 00
123530 1946N 06821W 6968 03160 0069 +085 +076 066034 034 035 002 00
123600 1944N 06821W 6969 03157 0068 +084 +077 065033 034 033 003 00
123630 1942N 06820W 6966 03161 0070 +081 +079 063033 034 033 000 00
123700 1940N 06820W 6967 03160 0066 +084 +081 061032 032 032 001 00
123730 1939N 06820W 6970 03155 0066 +086 +080 061030 031 032 001 00
123800 1937N 06819W 6966 03158 0064 +086 +079 059029 029 032 000 03
123830 1935N 06819W 6966 03157 0059 +089 +076 058028 029 032 000 03
123900 1933N 06819W 6968 03155 0059 +089 +071 056027 027 031 000 03
123930 1931N 06819W 6967 03155 0062 +086 +070 053028 029 032 000 03
124000 1929N 06818W 6969 03152 0056 +090 +067 053028 029 033 000 03
$$
;

[Blown Away]

1928 Great Okeechobee Hurricane

Hope it's not a repeat.

[hurricanefloyd5]

dose anyone know if this will bomb out and explode?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through OB 14:

[Aric Dunn]

Is there data concerning what proximity to such mountains organization changes from a funneling (or strengthening) effect to a disrupting effect?

I'm unfamiliar of any empirical study of this, but am sure there exist some. That said, I've not heard of large mountains having a strengthening/funneling effect on tropical cyclones. Typically mountains cause friction which serves to reduce surface and low level winds, disrupt the surface to upper air transport system that fuels a hurricane, and can have additional consequences.

Considering Irene likely to stay along the Northern coast of the Dominican Republic, I'd anticipate the northerly winds ahead of the system to interact with the mountain chain and initially cause increased deep convection west of Irene's center due to standard uplifting winds due to the terrain interaction. As the storm moves farther west, though, the southerly flow would encounter upslope along the Hispaniola southern coast, which could cause some drying and convective weakening for the storm.

(This is unofficial information and should not be used for decision making.)

- Jay
South Florida

Respectfully Jay, the highest mountaintops are far south of the projected path of the storm. The majority of the DR is quite flat along the northern coast. Interaction will not be a major factor as the eye/CDO will stay over open water based on the current path projections, IMHO.

http://mappery.com/maps/Hispaniola-Topo ... mthumb.jpg

I also have not read anything on how mountains can improve/disrupt the flow of a tropical system but in regards to Irene I don't see much of an impact if the current forecast track proves true. If the core of the system stays on the northern coast I wouldn't anticipate much weakening. First, it will still be able to tap into a latent heat source. Also, as john stated, the northern part of Hispaniola is not as mountainous compared to the central and southern parts. As such, I don't see a large increase in friction due to land/mountain interaction to be able to disrupt Irene's core significantly.

The one of the most important impacts that the islands could have on it ... since it likely wont beable to disrupt the core enough... As Irene passes if close enough could get briefly stuck or held back as the southern inflow get intagled in the mountains. An analogy would be like a tether ball on a pole. we could see Irene actually bend wsw briefly as it moves to the far side of the island tomorrow. There have been many cases of this happening.

what does this mean.... well it would delay any turn to the right thus shifting the tracks back left a little.

[tolakram]

I'm not seeing west, NW with maybe more west in my opinion.

[johngaltfla]

1928 Great Okeechobee Hurricane

Hope it's not a repeat.

I hope not also. The G-IV flight will tell us a lot more about the future for this storm.

[SouthernBreeze]

Now that its past the islands a more west motion should start and continue. the islands last night disrupted the center a little and caused it to wobble ... hence the crazy right turn that happened. looks to be heading due west atm.

I doubt it will maintain due west for the entire length of Hispaniola, which seems to my purely untrained eyes, that it will almost completely miss going over much if any of the island.

Note: This is NOT a forecast, just an amateurs opinion!

[Aric Dunn]

I'm not seeing west, NW with maybe more west in my opinion.

well there is seem just slightly north of west ... probably 275 or so. sucks NWS radar data is not working..

[Dave]

056
URNT15 KNHC 221250
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 15 20110822
124030 1927N 06818W 6966 03155 0053 +093 +064 053029 030 034 000 03
124100 1926N 06818W 6966 03153 0051 +092 +061 050029 029 034 000 03
124130 1924N 06817W 6967 03151 0048 +095 +058 050030 030 034 000 03
124200 1922N 06817W 6967 03150 0047 +095 +055 049030 030 034 000 03
124230 1920N 06817W 6965 03152 0046 +095 +058 046030 030 035 000 03
124300 1918N 06817W 6967 03150 0048 +092 +060 043029 030 034 000 03
124330 1916N 06816W 6967 03149 0051 +090 +060 041028 028 034 000 00
124400 1914N 06816W 6967 03149 0053 +090 +058 039031 031 034 000 03
124430 1912N 06816W 6966 03153 0055 +087 +063 039031 032 032 000 03
124500 1910N 06815W 6967 03151 0052 +091 +063 037031 032 032 000 03
124530 1908N 06815W 6968 03152 0056 +090 +069 039030 030 034 000 03
124600 1906N 06815W 6969 03151 0050 +094 +059 035028 028 033 000 00
124630 1904N 06815W 6966 03151 0049 +090 +082 036027 028 029 000 03
124700 1903N 06814W 6969 03146 0049 +089 +073 032027 027 031 000 03
124730 1901N 06814W 6966 03150 0050 +090 +060 028026 026 032 002 03
124800 1859N 06814W 6964 03151 0050 +089 +062 027026 026 031 001 00
124830 1857N 06813W 6969 03146 0051 +088 +063 024026 027 030 000 00
124900 1855N 06813W 6967 03146 0048 +090 +060 020027 028 033 000 03
124930 1853N 06813W 6967 03146 0054 +085 +063 018028 028 033 000 03
125000 1851N 06813W 6965 03148 0054 +085 +064 017029 030 033 000 03
$$
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