GOM action........

[GulfBreezer]

Looks like the action in the GOM that has been mentioned recently is getting together.........

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[zoeyann]

Is that the one some of the models were forecasting for Texas? If so I'm becoming impressed on the models ability to forecast these things before they exsist.

[GalvestonDuck]

Help! I'm getting confused.

There's stuff that's already out there (TD#10) as well as other blobs and then there's stuff that computer models have forecast to develop. Yesterday, there was the mention of some storms moving away from Panama and into the Caribbeand and then onward towards GOM, where it *might* develop into a threat for TX/LA.

Is the Panama stuff now that stuff that I see at 19N/80W on the IR loop? And is the blob at 25N/90W just nothing important...just wet stuff?

Too much stuff going on right now in life in general...as well as watching the tropics.

[GulfBreezer]

This GOM flare up seems to be the activity that was talked about by Joe B. 2 DAYS AGO. I was under the impression that it would develop further south closer to the Yucatan but hey, what do I know? Any input from someone who may know something would be appreciated??

[Air Force Met]

Right now it is just a weak tropical wave interacting with an upper low. There is nothing at the surface and pressures are high. If something does happen...it will take a while.

[bfez1]

Air Force Met, define awhile, please.
2-3 days, more????
Thanks

[alicia-w]

would someone be kind enough to post a link to these models that are so often spoken of? thanks ahead of time

[Johnny]

Yep, that's just a flare up of convection in the central gulf. What needs to be watched is the wave Southeast of the Yucatan Channel.

[wow]

the flare up in the central gulf is the remnants of TD9... priming up the gulf for what may be to come afterwards.

[Portastorm]

I've got to tip my Texas Longhorns cap (hook 'em!) to JB on this one. Late morning satellite loops indeed show the axis of the tropical wave in the NW Caribbean moving westbound with some feisty mid-level vorticity racing NW toward the Yucatan.

JB said these would merge and create the tropical system that is predicted by the ETA and Euro models to spin up this weekend in the GOM.

Any of the pro mets onboard want to comment? AirForceMet, whaddya think?

[vbhoutex]

The flare up of convection in the Central GOM is just that at this time. It is drifting WNW to NW. A dry ULL(?) just to its' W is what is eroding some of the convection on the W side of the system and also adding the Northerly component to its' current movement. If the convection persists, and it has increased since yesterday, then this could become an interesting feature also. At this point I would think it will begin to be a rainmaker for the TX/LA coastal areas in about 48 hours.

The extreme southern end of the wave laying across the Caribbean has broken off and moved into the EPAC over Panama. It, in fact, appears to be developing a spin and possible LLCC. The rest of the wave is moving WNW to NW from 5-10 mph with the majority of its convection, which has persisted since last night, just to the W of Jamaica and S of Cuba. This is the major area that the models have been trying to develop after it moves into the GOM in about 48-60 hrs. Right now there is no detectable spin to the system. Again, if this system continues to concentrate the convection in one area as it has been and continues on its' current track it could begin to develop into a tropical cyclone once it is into the GOM. The incoming front and the ridge that will build behind it will tend to push this feature more WNW and NW once they both reach the GOM this weekend. In addition it should help with venting the system if/as it develops. As always the key here is going to be the timing of the systems and as usual we just wait and see. As long as the models continue to carry this development in a consistent manner whether there is "something" there right now we need to be watching the area and any systems moving into or through it.

[GulfBreezer]

Michael, I have to agree with you on that one too! Joe B was given alot of flack for his "prediction" and we are getting ready to watch it come to fruition............going to be a very interesting weekend all the way around!! :o :o :o

[alicia-w]

Here's what the weather squadron at Eglin had to pass on to us DP reps this morning:

To All.......... Looks like a rainy weekend (naturally)

The tropical wave moving across the Bahamas, Cuba, and the NW Caribbean has split into two centers. One, near the Cayman Islands, is forecast to drift NW into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Some computer models create a tropical depression from this area over the next 72 hours. The most likely scenario is that the system would linger in the Gulf for several days and dump a great deal of rain on the Panhandle Sunday through Tuesday. Further development into a more significant tropical storm is not as likely but it needs to be closely monitored. The other half of the wave is now in the Bahamas near Nassau...it is currently being sheared by unfavorable upper level winds there. Some models also move this area into the Gulf as well. The two systems may end up merging or both could linger over the Gulf as two lows...either way, it looks like a rainy period ahead.
Tropical Depression #10 is forecast to become Tropical Storm Fabian in the Atlantic Ocean, still well over 1000 miles east of the Caribbean Lesser Antilles. Models project the storm will move westward to WNW over the next five days and be in the the Bahamas, within 800 miles of southeast of Eglin, by approximately late Wednesday.
Another system, at about 48 degrees west longitude is at a much higher latitude and will likely remain in the mid ocean and not approach the US.

[PTrackerLA]

The NW carib convection is strengthening and possibly becoming better organized now, I think this will be the area to watch for the development.

[bfez1]

Tropics bear watching as tropical wave moves into the Gulf
12:46 PM CDT on Thursday, August 28, 2003

WWLTV.com


A tropical wave currently south of Cuba could be some cause for concern over the holiday weekend as it makes its way into the Gulf of Mexico, according to Channel Four Meteorologist John Gumm.


“The area of disturbed weather is expected to drift into the Gulf by Friday afternoon or evening,” said Gumm.


Gumm also said conditions in the Gulf are favorable towards the system developing further if given enough time.


“Whether it becomes a tropical storm or not, heavy rains could soak Southeast Louisiana next week,” he said.


Gumm also mentioned that Tropical Depression #10 is currently in the Atlantic, and that he expected it to be upgraded to a tropical storm Thursday afternoon.


However that system would not reach the Caribbean until sometime next week.