ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Jevo]

Turn baby Turn.. I have plans this weekend here in SoFla

Oh wait Lixion wrote this package

Let's see if Stewart pulls a classic Stewart shift after an Avila forecast.. The only reason Im saying this is that the latest NAM run pulls the storm back West.. While I agree that the NAM is garbage with cyclone prediction, it has a pretty good track run for synoptic forecasting.. and its flattening the trough out and building the ridge back more agressivly

The most fun Ive had watching the NHC was in 04/05 when Avilia would write a forecast and Stewart would come in right behind him in the next forecast package and shift everything.. then again the 5pm update is going to have more model runs to work with

[fci]

Very true. I am sure tomorrow there will be a Hurricane Watch for the Florida peninsula.

Put me down in the "disagree" column.
Looking at the cluster of models on the prior page and the moving of the NHC steadily east; I DO NOT expect a Hurricane Watch, at least not in South Florida.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I didn't expect you to agree based on your prior posts. So let's agree to disagree. While I am not predicting a SE FL landfall you actually proved my point that people are watching the line and not the cone. I personally think it is still too early to call.

Just my opinion along with the usual disclaimer.

NHC is coming around to the missing to the East solution:
"Although it is
too early to be certain...the current guidance lessens the threat
to South Florida."

But no means am I saying to stop paying attention as this is not yet an "all clear" but we can certainly stop holding our breath!
However, I really think that expecting a Hurricane Watch based on the trend was very unlikely.
Agree to disagree is a correct statement for us.

[RL3AO]

147
URNT15 KNHC 221510
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 29 20110822
150030 2011N 06851W 6967 03162 0081 +069 //// 082032 034 033 004 05
150100 2010N 06849W 6969 03161 0071 +084 //// 083030 032 032 001 01
150130 2009N 06848W 6967 03162 0071 +083 //// 078036 038 029 000 01
150200 2009N 06847W 6965 03165 0072 +081 //// 078037 038 029 000 01
150230 2008N 06845W 6966 03162 0065 +086 +077 077035 035 030 000 00
150300 2007N 06844W 6966 03161 0065 +088 +069 076035 036 030 001 03
150330 2006N 06843W 6969 03157 0064 +087 +070 074034 037 032 001 00
150400 2004N 06841W 6970 03152 0062 +087 +076 073036 037 035 003 00
150430 2003N 06840W 6967 03161 0063 +085 +081 074036 037 034 006 03
150500 2002N 06839W 6966 03157 0062 +087 +071 072036 036 033 002 00
150530 2001N 06838W 6969 03151 0060 +087 +065 072036 036 037 002 00
150600 2000N 06836W 6967 03155 0068 +080 +077 072036 036 038 000 03
150630 1959N 06835W 6965 03155 0061 +082 +081 072037 037 038 000 03
150700 1958N 06834W 6965 03154 0053 +086 //// 071036 038 038 001 05
150730 1957N 06832W 6967 03149 0055 +084 //// 068039 040 038 001 05
150800 1956N 06831W 6967 03146 0053 +083 //// 069042 042 037 000 05
150830 1955N 06830W 6969 03141 0047 +087 +079 065040 041 036 000 03
150900 1954N 06829W 6966 03145 0043 +090 +074 066037 038 035 001 03
150930 1953N 06827W 6963 03145 0038 +092 +071 064035 036 038 001 03
151000 1951N 06826W 6969 03136 0036 +092 +076 063037 037 039 000 03
$$
;

[Frank2]

However, I really think that expecting a Hurricane Watch based on the trend was very unlikely.
Agree to disagree is a correct statement for us.

Yes, and that's why the EOC folks don't react to trends but the official watches and warnings - we see what following trends has done to people responding to events other than weather...

Frank

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Does anyone know if G-IV is set to fly today?

[eastcoastFL]

Well i can check out now. Im done worrying about this one unless something drastic happens. Best of luck to everyone in the bahamas and carolinas.

[alch97]

I'm the first to admit that I don't know a thing about this, but is it me or does it look like it's heading more west in the last few frames?

Please correct me if i'm wrong.....

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through OB 29:

[CrazyC83]

Note the big margin of error that far out - while Charleston is the bullseye, it could go as far as Tallahassee or as far as Cape Hatteras at that time.

[otowntiger]

Huge shift EAST in track

Not really, Florida well in the cone, wouldn't take much.....that is a MAJOR hurricane approaching folks

Well relatively speaking it is a huge shift. Those 50-100 miles will make all the difference in how the storm affects the east FL coast not to mention folks down stream. Also the margin of error for the model consensus and the NHC tracks these days is much smaller inside of 4 days. I think at this point if the storm were to make landfall in Florida it will be a huge surprise.

[RL3AO]

Well i can check out now. Im done worrying about this one unless something drastic happens. Best of luck to everyone in the bahamas and carolinas.

Sorry to sound like an ass, BUT YOU'RE STILL IN THE CONE.

They are forecasting a major hurricane about 150 miles east of you in 4 days and you're ignoring it? THATS INSANE.

[TheBurn]

Good shot of 'The Trough'

[CrazyC83]

Anyone from Tallahassee to Cape Hatteras needs to prepare for a hurricane - possibly an intense hurricane - landfall.

[Blown Away]

IMO, very odd track to go from 25N almost due N to SC w/o the traditional curve back towards the NE as the system approaches the Carolinas? Just not buying this track, most of those models show the NE movement near the Carolinas, but not the NHC track? Likely will trend farther E with time, odd to me.

[SNOW_JOKE]

Probobally a good news for Floridans that the track is continually shifting East in ever increasing increments. However SC is home to many species still recovering from the numerous coastal erosion cut-through the seafronts by past Hurricanes that wiped out entire sandbanks and tidal-spits all along the state, from SC to NC.
Much improvements have been made to reintroduce species that have struggled to rehabitat themselves due to the erosional effects. Its unfortunate that it's looking like the same thing may happen again this time round aswell.

[CrazyC83]

IMO, very odd track to go from 25N almost due N to SC w/o the traditional curve back towards the NE as the system approaches the Carolinas? Just not buying this track, most of those models show the NE movement near the Carolinas, but not the NHC track? Likely will trend farther E with time, odd to me.

Isabel didn't curve back at all, so it has past precedence.

[eastcoastFL]

Well i can check out now. Im done worrying about this one unless something drastic happens. Best of luck to everyone in the bahamas and carolinas.

Sorry to sound like an ass, BUT YOU'RE STILL IN THE CONE.

They are forecasting a major hurricane about 150 miles east of you in 4 days and you're ignoring it? THATS INSANE.

What i mean is a can chill out. yesterday i was freaking out when it was basically making landfall right here. Now i think there is a slim chance we see much of anything from this storm other than clouds and surf.

[CrazyC83]

Well i can check out now. Im done worrying about this one unless something drastic happens. Best of luck to everyone in the bahamas and carolinas.

Sorry to sound like an ass, BUT YOU'RE STILL IN THE CONE.

They are forecasting a major hurricane about 150 miles east of you in 4 days and you're ignoring it? THATS INSANE.

What i mean is a can chill out. yesterday i was freaking out when it was basically making landfall right here. Now i think there is a slim chance we see much of anything from this storm other than clouds and surf.

The margin of error at that point is 200 miles. I would still not let the guard down and prepare for what could be a major hurricane. If you ignore it and it comes in, you're looking at winds over 100 mph.

[FireRat]

Doom for the Carolinas on Saturday August 27th, I believe it!! This storm should not be taken lightly whatsoever.

Florida is still within the cone, so don't ignore Irene until the cone exits our state! Definitely looking a little better for Fla at the present moment though.

[gatorcane]

Huge shift EAST in track

Not really, Florida well in the cone, wouldn't take much.....that is a MAJOR hurricane approaching folks

Well relatively speaking it is a huge shift. Those 50-100 miles will make all the difference in how the storm affects the east FL coast not to mention folks down stream. Also the margin of error for the model consensus and the NHC tracks these days is much smaller inside of 4 days. I think at this point if the storm were to make landfall in Florida it will be a huge surprise.

I don't think so since we are still in the cone. But the trend is east.

Let's hope the GFS doesn't shift back west on the 12Z.