ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[ALhurricane]

Unless there is a dramatic change in the forecast synoptic environment, there is not going to be much room for any further eastward adjustments. In fact, I would not be at all surprised to see a trend back to the west at some point.

[Battlebrick]

i cannot believe i just woke up with the NHC predicting a major hitting SC.

[HurricaneWarning92]

IMO, very odd track to go from 25N almost due N to SC w/o the traditional curve back towards the NE as the system approaches the Carolinas? Just not buying this track, most of those models show the NE movement near the Carolinas, but not the NHC track? Likely will trend farther E with time, odd to me.

Isabel didn't curve back at all, so it has past precedence.

Maybe they are not too confident that the trough will be strong enough to lift it and then head NE.

[MGC]

My concern that Irene would not pass over Hispaniola and eventually become a major hurricane appears likely as I posted last night. Looks like the NHC agrees and has Irene making landfall as a major in SC. I hope they are wrong.....MGC

[SouthFloridawx]

Winds under 100mph knocked out power in Palm Beach for up to 2 weeks in some places when I lived there. Went through it 3 times.

[RL3AO]

The margin of error at that point is 200 miles. I would still not let the guard down and prepare for what could be a major hurricane. If you ignore it and it comes in, you're looking at winds over 100 mph.

And remember the margin of error is only the 67% percentile error. That means 1/3rd of the forecasts end up OUTSIDE of the cone, like yesterday morning's 24 hr forecast point for today.

[alch97]

There seems to be a new blowup of storms near the coast of the DR. Could that be the center?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

[AdamFirst]

Unless there is a dramatic change in the forecast synoptic environment, there is not going to be much room for any further eastward adjustments. In fact, I would not be at all surprised to see a trend back to the west at some point.

Are you a fan of using the NAM for synoptics?

The past two runs of the NAM close the weakness completely...no place to escape.

[CrazyC83]

Unless there is a dramatic change in the forecast synoptic environment, there is not going to be much room for any further eastward adjustments. In fact, I would not be at all surprised to see a trend back to the west at some point.

With that trough coming in quick and stalling by the ridge, wouldn't steering currents break down just off the Southeast coast?

[gatorcane]

Unless there is a dramatic change in the forecast synoptic environment, there is not going to be much room for any further eastward adjustments. In fact, I would not be at all surprised to see a trend back to the west at some point.

Agreed, I'm afraid too many people in Florida think we are out of the woods now.

Watch the models all shift back some west today.

We are in the cone by a longshot, all of Florida.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 221520
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 30 20110822
151030 1950N 06825W 6969 03135 0035 +090 +084 065037 038 039 000 03
151100 1949N 06824W 6968 03133 0026 +096 +080 060038 040 039 001 00
151130 1948N 06822W 6967 03135 0020 +100 +073 059044 044 037 000 03
151200 1947N 06821W 6970 03126 0019 +099 +071 058046 047 036 000 03
151230 1946N 06820W 6966 03132 0023 +091 +083 058045 046 038 000 03
151300 1944N 06819W 6962 03132 0010 +100 +076 057046 046 040 000 03
151330 1943N 06818W 6973 03117 0009 +100 +080 059044 045 040 000 03
151400 1942N 06816W 6966 03124 0011 +096 +083 063041 043 042 000 03
151430 1941N 06815W 6973 03115 0006 +100 +080 060037 040 043 000 03
151500 1940N 06814W 6967 03122 0013 +093 +082 063036 037 042 000 03
151530 1938N 06813W 6973 03113 0010 +096 +077 069037 038 042 000 03
151600 1937N 06811W 6964 03128 0006 +102 +062 071040 041 044 001 03
151630 1936N 06810W 6971 03108 9988 +108 +060 070042 043 047 001 03
151700 1935N 06809W 6969 03108 9993 +100 +070 068043 043 048 000 03
151730 1934N 06808W 6963 03113 0005 +088 +078 065041 042 047 000 03
151800 1932N 06807W 6967 03107 0004 +086 +084 066041 042 046 001 03
151830 1931N 06805W 6965 03107 0001 +087 //// 066042 043 046 000 01
151900 1930N 06804W 6967 03101 9990 +090 //// 064046 047 044 000 05
151930 1929N 06803W 6969 03097 9981 +096 +095 061048 049 045 000 03
152000 1928N 06802W 6966 03097 9980 +095 //// 062049 050 046 001 05
$$

[Frank2]

TheBurn,

Yes, good photo of our friend the trough - they are good for horses and people (lol)...

And it really is a fairly sharp trough, considering we are still in August...

That picture really is worth a thousands words - or a dozen models and explains Irene shift northward, since the trough really is creating a signficiant weakness...

Frank

[Blown Away]

Unless there is a dramatic change in the forecast synoptic environment, there is not going to be much room for any further eastward adjustments. In fact, I would not be at all surprised to see a trend back to the west at some point.

Thanks, that explains no NE movement at the end of the NHC track, ridge block! Just an odd looking track.

[dixiebreeze]

Unless there is a dramatic change in the forecast synoptic environment, there is not going to be much room for any further eastward adjustments. In fact, I would not be at all surprised to see a trend back to the west at some point.

Worth repeating.

[eastcoastFL]

Unless there is a dramatic change in the forecast synoptic environment, there is not going to be much room for any further eastward adjustments. In fact, I would not be at all surprised to see a trend back to the west at some point.

gee thanks, thats comforting. kidding.

[southerngale]

If you're going to make a forecast or make "matter of fact" type statements, you need to use the disclaimer that is posted below the map on this page. There are a lot of new people reading the forum and some people are finding Storm2k to get information because they don't know of official sources.

For those who are minimizing the threat to Florida... Florida is still in the cone!

[Jevo]

Lookie what we have here.. the NHC puts a dot over their house and they decide they want to hang out with us.. about time the Middle Atlantic woke up and started posting... Welcome to the party SC/NC..

Seriously though.. keep an eye on this

[SNOW_JOKE]

Reading up on wiki, and taking a look on the road map. If N.Charleston gets hit it would be a substantial loss for the state. Pop 97,471 and at a height of just 6m asl the city sits right on the seafront of the Atlantic.

Of course there's still a lot of open water and some 3 or 4 days before the city starts feeling the effects of the Hurricane but right from Savannah up to Myrtle Beach is the place to get packing (or going )

[HurricaneWarning92]

The margin of error at that point is 200 miles. I would still not let the guard down and prepare for what could be a major hurricane. If you ignore it and it comes in, you're looking at winds over 100 mph.

And remember the margin of error is only the 67% percentile error. That means 1/3rd of the forecasts end up OUTSIDE of the cone, like yesterday morning's 24 hr forecast point for today.

Lol for real. Yesterday morning the position where it is at wasnt even in the cone... Also, everyone thought this would be a EGOM/Florida 3 days ago, and now look what we have here...

[CrazyC83]

Reading up on wiki, and taking a look on the road map. If N.Charleston gets hit it would be a substantial loss for the state. Pop 97,471 and at a height of just 6m asl the city sits right on the seafront of the Atlantic.

Of course there's still a lot of open water and some 3 or 4 days before the city starts feeling the effects of the Hurricane but right from Savannah up to Myrtle Beach is the place to get packing (or going )

At that point though, there is a 250 mile margin of error (at 67% accuracy), so it could go all the way to Cape Hatteras or to the Florida west coast.