ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Recon

#3281 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:48 am

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Re: Re:

#3282 Postby summersquall » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:48 am

RL3AO wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:Well i can check out now. Im done worrying about this one unless something drastic happens. Best of luck to everyone in the bahamas and carolinas.


Sorry to sound like an ass, BUT YOU'RE STILL IN THE CONE.

They are forecasting a major hurricane about 150 miles east of you in 4 days and you're ignoring it? THATS INSANE.


Thank you so much for a much needed smile this morning.

I am still preparing as if the track was further west. We've all watched enough of these to know they wobble. And, they never follow the path perfectly as in a straight line between points. The danger of under estimating Irene is far greater than the danger of being overprepared.

Thanks to everyone here for the invaluable discussion.
Last edited by summersquall on Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3283 Postby ozonepete » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:48 am

pcolaman wrote:Seams to me that everyone is throwing out the gfdl and the nam models which both handle big storms and the troughs better . Just my thoughts . Why is this so ? why is the gfs being the major player when yesterdays runs had bad errors yesterday ? Any thoughts ?


GFDL is good. NAM is not reliable for tropical forecasting.

The main point is to take the best consensus of the models and throw out the outliers. Every model has problems once in a while and produces out put too far from the consensus.
Last edited by ozonepete on Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Recon

#3284 Postby Battlebrick » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:49 am

They got a reading of 984 mb, but the minimum was 989 mb in the vortex?
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Re: Re:

#3285 Postby fci » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:50 am

gatorcane wrote:
ALhurricane wrote:Unless there is a dramatic change in the forecast synoptic environment, there is not going to be much room for any further eastward adjustments. In fact, I would not be at all surprised to see a trend back to the west at some point.


Agreed, I'm afraid too many people in Florida think we are out of the woods now.

Watch the models all shift back some west today. :eek:

Deleted post, sorry.....
Last edited by fci on Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3286 Postby capepoint » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:51 am

ozonepete wrote:
capepoint wrote:
Yes, Isabel did curve northeast, it just did it so late that the western eyewall raked the NC coast from Cape Fear to Hatteras. While never officially making landfall, the slow movement lead to major damage in SE NC. It was however moving northeast, right along the coast. :D


That is completely incorrect. Isabel never recurved and made direct landfall at Hatteras and then kept going northwest. There was a large extension of the Bermuda high into the northeast that prevented it from recurving at all. Here's the track:

Image




You are absolutly right. I got it confused with Ophelia. Sorry. They all start to run together in my memory. :oops: :oops:
Although it actually made landfall on Core Banks, in eastern Carteret County. A little south of Hatteras. :D

My bust. :oops:
Last edited by capepoint on Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Ginger-(eye),Dennis,Diana,Kate,Gloria,Charley-(eye),Allison,Arthur,Bertha,Fran,Josephine,Bonnie,Earl,Dennis-(twice),Floyd, Isabel-(eye),Charley,Ophelia-(eyewall),Ernesto,Barry,Hanna,Irene-(eye),Arthur-(eye), Florence, Dorian, and countless depressions, storms, and nor'easters.

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3287 Postby pcolaman » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:51 am

ozonepete wrote:
pcolaman wrote:Seams to me that everyone is throwing out the gfdl and the nam models which both handle big storms and the troughs better . Just my thoughts . Why is this so ? why is the gfs being the major player when yesterdays runs had bad errors yesterday ? Any thoughts ?


GFDL is good. NAM is not reliable for tropical forecasting.

The main point is to take the best consensus of the models and throw out the outliers. Every model has problems once in a while and produces out put too far from the consensus.


I thought that the nam was or has a better handle on the fronts and troughts
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Re: Re:

#3288 Postby psyclone » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:51 am

gatorcane wrote:
ALhurricane wrote:Unless there is a dramatic change in the forecast synoptic environment, there is not going to be much room for any further eastward adjustments. In fact, I would not be at all surprised to see a trend back to the west at some point.


Agreed, I'm afraid too many people in Florida think we are out of the woods now.

Watch the models all shift back some west today. :eek:

We are in the cone by a longshot, all of Florida.

worth repeating gatorcane. those of us in florida, especially on the east coast, need to remain vigilant as we remain well within the cone of uncertainty. we must maintain vigilance, but we can be simultaneously encouraged by those easterly shifts.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3289 Postby ozonepete » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:52 am

capepoint wrote:You are absolutly right. I got it confused with Ophelia. Sorry. They all start to run together in my memory.

My bust. :oops:


No problem. I do it all the time. :)
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#3290 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:53 am

795
URNT15 KNHC 221550
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 33 20110822
154030 1847N 06702W 6967 03122 0033 +077 //// 184042 043 038 006 01
154100 1846N 06701W 6969 03122 //// +070 //// 185045 045 039 006 01
154130 1846N 06659W 6965 03125 0038 +075 //// 184045 045 040 008 01
154200 1845N 06658W 6969 03119 0039 +075 //// 186047 049 039 008 01
154230 1844N 06656W 6967 03128 0043 +075 //// 187049 049 039 008 01
154300 1843N 06655W 6967 03123 0046 +070 //// 190049 049 039 008 01
154330 1843N 06653W 6963 03129 0041 +074 //// 192046 047 038 008 01
154400 1842N 06652W 6969 03123 0031 +079 //// 190045 045 040 008 01
154430 1841N 06650W 6967 03122 //// +073 //// 190042 045 043 009 01
154500 1840N 06649W 6970 03118 //// +074 //// 195039 044 052 021 05
154530 1840N 06647W 6969 03118 //// +068 //// 196039 051 054 024 05
154600 1839N 06646W 6977 03110 //// +060 //// 195048 049 048 014 01
154630 1838N 06644W 6962 03131 0028 +079 //// 192049 049 041 005 01
154700 1837N 06643W 6970 03120 //// +078 //// 194048 050 043 006 01
154730 1836N 06641W 6971 03114 //// +063 //// 194039 042 043 013 05
154800 1836N 06639W 6983 03107 //// +068 //// 192043 045 042 008 01
154830 1835N 06638W 6966 03127 //// +065 //// 189044 048 040 009 01
154900 1834N 06636W 6977 03113 //// +060 //// 187045 048 038 009 01
154930 1833N 06635W 6964 03129 //// +070 //// 191045 045 039 006 01
155000 1833N 06634W 6967 03129 //// +063 //// 185048 050 037 007 01
$$
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587
UZNT13 KNHC 221550
XXAA 72157 99191 70677 04397 99989 27415 13520 00596 ///// /////
92594 23206 14022 85331 19614 16512 70000 15056 17502 88999 77999
31313 09608 81527
61616 AF302 0409A IRENE OB 14
62626 EYE SPL 1915N06770W 1532 MBL WND 14522 AEV 20802 DLM WND 13
513 989697 WL150 14522 084 REL 1914N06769W 152741 SPG 1915N06770W
153149 =
XXBB 72158 99191 70677 04397 00989 27415 11850 19614 22821 18827
33801 19456 44743 18658 55697 14456
21212 00989 13520 11968 15021 22921 14024 33886 13017 44869 15012
55850 16512 66806 12012 77780 07010 88740 08510 99697 17502
31313 09608 81527
61616 AF302 0409A IRENE OB 14
62626 EYE SPL 1915N06770W 1532 MBL WND 14522 AEV 20802 DLM WND 13
513 989697 WL150 14522 084 REL 1914N06769W 152741 SPG 1915N06770W
153149 =
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Recon

#3291 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:56 am

Through OB 33:

Image

Image

Extrapolated pressures can be off sometimes.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3292 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:56 am

capepoint wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
capepoint wrote:
Yes, Isabel did curve northeast, it just did it so late that the western eyewall raked the NC coast from Cape Fear to Hatteras. While never officially making landfall, the slow movement lead to major damage in SE NC. It was however moving northeast, right along the coast. :D


That is completely incorrect. Isabel never recurved and made direct landfall at Hatteras and then kept going northwest. There was a large extension of the Bermuda high into the northeast that prevented it from recurving at all. Here's the track:

Image




You are absolutly right. I got it confused with Ophelia. Sorry. They all start to run together in my memory. :oops: :oops:
Although it actually made landfall on Core Banks, in eastern Carteret County. A little south of Hatteras. :D

My bust. :oops:



Yeah, Isabel took a very rare track. You do not see, in the historical data, many tropical cyclones move NW through the heart of Eastern North America like that.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3293 Postby ozonepete » Mon Aug 22, 2011 10:59 am

pcolaman wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
pcolaman wrote:Seams to me that everyone is throwing out the gfdl and the nam models which both handle big storms and the troughs better . Just my thoughts . Why is this so ? why is the gfs being the major player when yesterdays runs had bad errors yesterday ? Any thoughts ?


GFDL is good. NAM is not reliable for tropical forecasting.

The main point is to take the best consensus of the models and throw out the outliers. Every model has problems once in a while and produces out put too far from the consensus.


I thought that the nam was or has a better handle on the fronts and troughts


Yes, and the shorter the range, the better it is. Now I don't know the accuracy numbers exactly, but the GFS and NAM are both very good at troughs and fronts, and each has there own areas where they don't do as well, such as the GFS not handling convective feedback well from thunderstorm cluster development, things like that. The tropical version of GFS is what you use for these circumstances and then you can use the Global GFS and NAM (among others) as the storm gets near the coast. Also, 5 day forecasts for any synoptics such as troughs and fronts are still very innacurate and should only be used as rough guides. you have to be 3 days away to trust it fairly well and even then there are huge busts.
While we all use the models here and love to speculate, the NHC is SO good at track forecasts now that it pretty futile to think you'll be more accurate than them on the first 3 days.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3294 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:00 am

did the center just wobble southward just abit?
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#3295 Postby artist » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:01 am

looks like more than likely good news for most of the Florida peninsula, however we are still in the cone and a hurricane does not follow a center point(the black dot) and we need to keep from concentrating simply on the center of the cone. The cone describes where the hurricane could go at any certain point in time only. When they get the G-IV data into the 0z models, we will better know what we are dealing with. Please see this thread that was created -
Preparing for a Hurricane & [color=#FF0000]KNOW The CONE

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=109232
It is so much better to be ready than sorry.[/color]
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#3296 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:03 am

Someone can take over. I need a break




937
URNT15 KNHC 221600
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 34 20110822
155030 1832N 06632W 6966 03129 //// +071 //// 186048 049 037 006 01
155100 1831N 06631W 6968 03133 //// +072 //// 189044 048 035 004 05
155130 1830N 06629W 6959 03135 0033 +082 //// 187048 050 035 001 01
155200 1830N 06628W 6967 03128 0030 +079 //// 187046 049 034 001 05
155230 1830N 06626W 6962 03133 0031 +080 //// 180048 049 /// /// 05
155300 1831N 06625W 6971 03122 0032 +077 //// 179046 047 /// /// 05
155330 1833N 06625W 6967 03135 //// +069 //// 178046 047 035 008 05
155400 1835N 06625W 6971 03144 //// +066 //// 176048 048 038 004 01
155430 1838N 06625W 6969 03147 //// +069 //// 174044 045 036 005 01
155500 1840N 06626W 6959 03159 //// +074 //// 171049 051 038 006 01
155530 1842N 06626W 6965 03150 //// +073 //// 173050 050 037 003 01
155600 1844N 06626W 6970 03145 0063 +070 //// 172048 050 037 004 01
155630 1846N 06626W 6970 03145 //// +066 //// 171048 050 039 003 01
155700 1848N 06626W 6966 03148 0064 +075 //// 170050 051 039 002 01
155730 1851N 06626W 6967 03145 //// +067 //// 170051 051 040 005 01
155800 1853N 06627W 6969 03141 //// +063 //// 166053 053 040 005 01
155830 1855N 06627W 6970 03140 //// +061 //// 164051 052 041 005 01
155900 1857N 06627W 6963 03146 //// +067 //// 160051 053 042 002 01
155930 1859N 06627W 6967 03140 //// +070 //// 161049 051 040 005 01
160000 1902N 06627W 6963 03142 0057 +071 //// 163046 047 040 004 01
$$
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3297 Postby ozonepete » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:03 am

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
Yeah, Isabel took a very rare track. You do not see, in the historical data, many tropical cyclones move NW through the heart of Eastern North America like that.


Yes, my friend. Very rare. It is interesting though, that one of the reasons the models are keeping Irene on the coast after landfall (whether Charleston or Hatteras) is not so much that the approaching trough later in the week will be that unusually strong, but that the Bermuda High will be a little stronger and farther north off of the northeast. So I don't think people should be looking for some gigantic anomalous trough coming in on the long range synoptics. Look for the strength of high pressure along the mid to north Atlantic coast to see where Irene winds up.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Recon

#3298 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:06 am

I can take over.

Image
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#3299 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:12 am

URNT15 KNHC 221610
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 35 20110822
160030 1904N 06627W 6967 03138 0057 +073 //// 164048 049 040 004 01
160100 1906N 06628W 6969 03136 //// +073 //// 161047 049 040 003 01
160130 1908N 06628W 6967 03136 //// +075 //// 159046 047 039 003 01
160200 1910N 06628W 6966 03135 0044 +079 //// 161046 046 041 002 01
160230 1912N 06628W 6968 03134 0045 +078 //// 157046 046 041 002 01
160300 1915N 06628W 6969 03134 //// +075 //// 155045 046 042 003 01
160330 1917N 06628W 6969 03134 //// +075 //// 153046 047 042 004 01
160400 1919N 06628W 6965 03138 //// +073 //// 153047 048 043 003 01
160430 1921N 06629W 6970 03129 //// +071 //// 154046 047 043 003 01
160500 1923N 06629W 6970 03132 //// +072 //// 152045 046 043 004 01
160530 1925N 06629W 6968 03134 //// +067 //// 152044 046 043 005 01
160600 1927N 06629W 6966 03136 //// +076 //// 154044 046 045 001 01
160630 1929N 06629W 6966 03138 //// +069 //// 150046 047 044 002 01
160700 1931N 06629W 6967 03135 //// +071 //// 149044 046 043 002 05
160730 1934N 06630W 6965 03136 //// +072 //// 147049 053 041 003 01
160800 1936N 06630W 6968 03135 //// +075 //// 146051 053 042 003 01
160830 1938N 06630W 6974 03132 //// +075 //// 145049 050 042 003 01
160900 1940N 06630W 6966 03140 //// +075 //// 146048 049 042 003 05
160930 1942N 06630W 6966 03139 0052 +077 //// 149049 050 044 001 01
161000 1944N 06630W 6969 03136 //// +076 //// 148049 050 043 001 01
$$
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Recon

#3300 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:14 am

Image
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