ATL: IRENE - Models

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viberama
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#3441 Postby viberama » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:17 am

deltadog03 wrote:Well....Looks like my landfall point/thinking is going to change for sure....just too much evidence


Yes Sir. I was convinced by the modeling yesterday that Florida would see the landfall. This new modeling suggests landfall to continue to move North. Maybe way far north if the ridge doesn't build back in.
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#3442 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:18 am

deltadog03 wrote:Well....Looks like my landfall point/thinking is going to change for sure....just too much evidence


This is interesting. What do you mean?
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#3443 Postby Weatherboy1 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:18 am

More good news for us here in South FL on this latest run, though hopefully our friends farther north won't get hit too badly. Barring some unforeseen GIV data suggesting the ridge is stronger than the models are seeing, we could be looking at another easterly miss!
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#3444 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:19 am

132hrs... Yikes @ NC... moving E of due N

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3445 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:20 am

Well I'm feeling a bit more comfortable as each model run progresses. With that being said I'll feel even more comfortable if the trends hold true after the G-IV data is put in. Until then I think past 72 hours it's a guessing game. The general idea is there but it's the specifics that can make the difference.

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3446 Postby chaser1 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:20 am

Am just not sold on the GFS solution; seems that a really large system would be less impacted by a marginal weakness in between two significant ridges. Am still really concerned about a course somewhere between the Florida Straights and perhaps Vero Beach, Fl. ( continuing WNW to at least the Fla. West coast ).
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3447 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:23 am

Appears NC could get brushed on its way out but nothing to crazy on this run.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3448 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:23 am

chaser1 wrote:Am just not sold on the GFS solution; seems that a really large system would be less impacted by a marginal weakness in between two significant ridges. Am still really concerned about a course somewhere between the Florida Straights and perhaps Vero Beach, Fl. ( continuing WNW to at least the Fla. West coast ).


You got it backwards.... the stronger the system more the more it will be affected by a marginal weakness.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3449 Postby Riptide » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:24 am

SFLcane wrote:Appears NC could get brushed on its way out but nothing to crazy on this run.

lol, it's going to hit Long Island.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3450 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:25 am

Wow looks to only brush the Outer Banks on this run.
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#3451 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:26 am

GFDL should be rolling in 5 minutes.... Let's see if it joins the eastward movement
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3452 Postby fci » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:27 am

chaser1 wrote:Am just not sold on the GFS solution; seems that a really large system would be less impacted by a marginal weakness in between two significant ridges. Am still really concerned about a course somewhere between the Florida Straights and perhaps Vero Beach, Fl. ( continuing WNW to at least the Fla. West coast ).


Well, I give you credit for sticking to your guns and bucking the trends. Thanks for your analysis and, for my sake; I hope you are wrong. I appreciate you expressing your opinions and backing them up with your thought process.
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#3453 Postby OuterBanker » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:27 am

Stronger systems generally move more poleward.
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#3454 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:27 am

156hrs...


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#3455 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:28 am

Massachusetts! +162hrs

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#3456 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:29 am

chris_fit wrote:156hrs...


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oh crap :double:
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#3457 Postby Vortex » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:32 am

GFS still to close for comfort but I like the trend. If GFDL swings offshore FL then ill feel much more confident
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#3458 Postby OuterBanker » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:32 am

Ptracker that is noa a brash. That is around Raleigh. That would nail all of eastern NC and head for the most populus areas of the country. A worse case scenario I'm afraid.
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#3459 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:36 am

HWRF +12hrs

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#3460 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:37 am

+24hrs

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