ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Where is the center?

[JtSmarts]

New Joe Bastardi Tweet

TPC continues to shift to my track, intensity. Will have to shift more to ne as this is a major hit NC then nne to New England

Storm should be 3 or 4 on NC coast, 1 or 2 for New England. Heavy rains on saturated ground may be as big a story as wind there

[eastcoastFL]

New Joe Bastardi Tweet

TPC continues to shift to my track, intensity. Will have to shift more to ne as this is a major hit NC then nne to New England

Storm should be 3 or 4 on NC coast, 1 or 2 for New England. Heavy rains on saturated ground may be as big a story as wind there

grain of salt...

[summersquall]

TWC tweet -

weatherchannel The Weather Channel
RT @mikeseidel: Heading to West Palm Beach for coverage starting tomorrow morning at 6 AM ET. #Hurricane #Irene

Bet he'll be at the Hilton on Singer Island.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 221620
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 36 20110822
161030 1946N 06631W 6967 03139 //// +078 //// 147048 049 043 002 01
161100 1948N 06631W 6966 03141 0053 +077 //// 152049 049 044 001 01
161130 1950N 06631W 6967 03140 //// +075 //// 153050 051 043 001 05
161200 1952N 06631W 6969 03139 0056 +077 //// 152050 051 043 000 05
161230 1954N 06631W 6969 03140 //// +076 //// 150050 052 042 000 05
161300 1956N 06631W 6965 03146 0050 +084 //// 148051 052 042 000 05
161330 1958N 06631W 6966 03149 0053 +085 //// 148051 051 042 001 05
161400 2000N 06632W 6967 03146 0060 +078 //// 146053 054 041 000 05
161430 2002N 06632W 6969 03146 0069 +073 //// 142055 055 041 000 05
161500 2004N 06632W 6966 03152 0073 +072 //// 141058 060 041 001 01
161530 2006N 06632W 6968 03150 0077 +072 //// 140059 060 041 001 01
161600 2009N 06632W 6967 03155 0078 +072 //// 138054 055 042 000 01
161630 2011N 06632W 6967 03156 0085 +067 //// 136053 053 042 004 01
161700 2012N 06633W 6966 03158 0085 +070 //// 133053 054 041 006 01
161730 2014N 06633W 6967 03156 0085 +069 //// 132052 052 041 005 01
161800 2016N 06633W 6966 03160 0085 +070 +067 133053 054 040 004 00
161830 2018N 06633W 6969 03157 0083 +073 +066 134052 053 039 003 00
161900 2020N 06633W 6966 03161 0080 +075 +062 132055 055 039 000 00
161930 2022N 06633W 6966 03163 0087 +073 +061 133055 056 038 000 03
162000 2024N 06633W 6967 03162 0089 +072 +063 133055 055 039 000 03
$$
;

[Dave]

Chris I can get the hdobs or both if you want? I'm clear now.

[sandyb]

New Joe Bastardi Tweet

TPC continues to shift to my track, intensity. Will have to shift more to ne as this is a major hit NC then nne to New England

Storm should be 3 or 4 on NC coast, 1 or 2 for New England. Heavy rains on saturated ground may be as big a story as wind there

grain of salt...

you better hope so but i would listen to him

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Dave]

Picking up HDOBS now.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Chris I can get the hdobs or both if you want? I'm clear now.

Thanks. I can do the images still, I'll let you take the HDOBs.

[Dave]

Chris I can get the hdobs or both if you want? I'm clear now.

Thanks. I can do the images still, I'll let you take the HDOBs.

Got them.

[Aric Dunn]

this motion should continue till it makes it about halfway past hispaniola and the southern inflow its entangled in the mountains at which time a more west to slightly south of west motion till the circ becomes free. This is of course dependent on exactly how close it tracks. current NHC track keeps it plenty close for the type of scenario to occur. it has happened many many times before.

[fox13weather]

Who was the poster who insisted that this was NOT A RECURVE SITUATION?? This is a recurve situation. Irene may never impact the United States!

[jlauderdal]

TWC tweet -

weatherchannel The Weather Channel
RT @mikeseidel: Heading to West Palm Beach for coverage starting tomorrow morning at 6 AM ET. #Hurricane #Irene

Bet he'll be at the Hilton on Singer Island.

bet he ends up moving N and out of the state sooner rather than later

[JTD]

Who was the poster who insisted that this was NOT A RECURVE SITUATION?? This is a recurve situation. Irene may never impact the United States!

Good post. This cannot be emphasized enough.

[SouthDadeFish]

this motion should continue till it makes it about halfway past hispaniola and the southern inflow its entangled in the mountains at which time a more west to slightly south of west motion till the circ becomes free. This is of course dependent on exactly how close it tracks. current NHC track keeps it plenty close for the type of scenario to occur. it has happened many many times before.

12Z GFS hinted at this. It had Irene making a dip SW after Hispaniola.

[Aric Dunn]

this motion should continue till it makes it about halfway past hispaniola and the southern inflow its entangled in the mountains at which time a more west to slightly south of west motion till the circ becomes free. This is of course dependent on exactly how close it tracks. current NHC track keeps it plenty close for the type of scenario to occur. it has happened many many times before.

12Z GFS hinted at this. It had Irene making a dip SW after Hispaniola.

Just got home. have not seen any 12z guidance yet. but thats good to know thanks. I know a couple were doing that for the 00z runs though.

[otowntiger]

Who was the poster who insisted that this was NOT A RECURVE SITUATION?? This is a recurve situation. Irene may never impact the United States!

That's a pretty strong statement there. But I may have to agree. BTW the poster you were talking about (probably 'KWT') is one of our better, more level headed ones we have that is not a pro met. He actually is one that is usually sounding the 'recurve bell', but this time the synoptics were (maybe are) different.

[Dave]

762
URNT15 KNHC 221630
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 37 20110822
162030 2026N 06634W 6966 03163 0089 +071 +062 134056 057 039 000 00
162100 2028N 06634W 6968 03163 0091 +070 +063 136055 056 038 000 03
162130 2030N 06634W 6967 03165 0092 +071 +065 136055 055 038 000 00
162200 2032N 06634W 6966 03167 0088 +075 +071 134053 054 037 001 03
162230 2034N 06634W 6967 03168 0088 +075 +069 132051 052 039 005 03
162300 2036N 06633W 6966 03168 0088 +075 +070 133054 055 042 002 03
162330 2037N 06632W 6965 03171 0086 +079 +067 134056 058 045 002 03
162400 2038N 06631W 6970 03166 0087 +078 +066 136055 055 046 002 00
162430 2038N 06629W 6968 03167 0092 +076 +070 135052 054 /// /// 03
162500 2036N 06629W 6972 03165 0095 +072 +068 137051 052 /// /// 03
162530 2036N 06631W 6967 03169 0090 +078 +063 136052 053 044 001 03
162600 2035N 06632W 6965 03171 0095 +072 +063 135051 052 043 002 03
162630 2034N 06634W 6968 03165 0093 +075 +053 134052 052 039 001 03
162700 2033N 06635W 6974 03157 0091 +075 +055 135051 051 039 000 03
162730 2032N 06636W 6967 03165 0090 +075 +053 135052 053 038 000 00
162800 2031N 06638W 6966 03163 0092 +070 +054 134054 054 039 000 03
162830 2030N 06639W 6970 03159 0087 +072 +052 132053 053 040 001 00
162900 2029N 06640W 6967 03160 0081 +076 +054 132051 052 039 000 03
162930 2028N 06641W 6967 03160 0080 +076 +050 131052 053 039 000 03
163000 2027N 06642W 6969 03157 0078 +076 +058 132051 051 040 000 03
$$
;

[UpTheCreek]

grain of salt...

you better hope so but i would listen to him

I'm listening to him, that's for sure. Preparing this afternoon! You know the saying about a broken clock..........



....oh, and HEY Sandyb!!!