ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3321 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:33 am

fox13weather wrote:Who was the poster who insisted that this was NOT A RECURVE SITUATION?? This is a recurve situation. Irene may never impact the United States!



Okay, I"m getting really confused now. AirForceMet earlier mentioned that he couldn't see this track moving any further east, unless the pattern conmpletely changed, and said that it's possible it could even shift west, but now you are saying there's a chance this doesn't even hit the USA...Actually, you are the first MET I've heard this from. Can we hold you to this?... ;) It's a big risk to put those words out there.....
Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3322 Postby GCANE » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:33 am

That anti-cyclone is rotating clockwise closer to Irene's track.

IMHO, if it move in front of Irene and Irene tracks into it, there is a strong chance for RI.


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3323 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:33 am

I've been a bit busy lately. Looking less like any significant impact on the FL Peninsula, though don't let your guard down there yet. Could be a NC landfall as a Cat 3.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3324 Postby psyclone » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:34 am

fox13weather wrote:Who was the poster who insisted that this was NOT A RECURVE SITUATION?? This is a recurve situation. Irene may never impact the United States!

there have been a number of posters stating this. i give you kudos for your positing a recurve scenario when it was thought by many to be impossible. i have no clue what's going to happen but there's no denying the trend. the weather always holds surprises...that what makes it so interesting.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3325 Postby otowntiger » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:35 am

wxman57 wrote:I've been a bit busy lately. Looking less like any significant impact on the FL Peninsula, though don't let your guard down there yet. Could be a NC landfall as a Cat 3.
Good to hear from you wxman57. Thanks for whatever insight you can offer at this time!
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3326 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:35 am

fox13weather wrote:Who was the poster who insisted that this was NOT A RECURVE SITUATION?? This is a recurve situation. Irene may never impact the United States!


actually if your around more you will see a lot of that sort of stuff. just the other day (saturday). 90% of everyone said no way it was going to go east of florida.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Recon

#3327 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:35 am

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#3328 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:36 am

radar is hinting at a slight westward bend over the last hour.. wonder if recon says the same on this next pass..
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3329 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:36 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
fox13weather wrote:Who was the poster who insisted that this was NOT A RECURVE SITUATION?? This is a recurve situation. Irene may never impact the United States!


actually if your around more you will see a lot of that sort of stuff. just the other day (saturday). 90% of everyone said no way it was going to go east of florida.


Indeed, I was one of the few doubters as I recall.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3330 Postby UpTheCreek » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:36 am

fox13weather wrote:Who was the poster who insisted that this was NOT A RECURVE SITUATION?? This is a recurve situation. Irene may never impact the United States!


Explain, if you please?
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3331 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:38 am

UpTheCreek wrote:
fox13weather wrote:Who was the poster who insisted that this was NOT A RECURVE SITUATION?? This is a recurve situation. Irene may never impact the United States!


Explain, if you please?



Yea, he does sound pretty confident that this isn't going to hit the USA.
Hopefully he will elaborate a bit.
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Re:

#3332 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:39 am

Aric Dunn wrote:radar is hinting at a slight westward bend over the last hour.. wonder if recon says the same on this next pass..


Can you provide radar link?
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#3333 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:39 am

I am not sure....but, I know I HAVE SAID that this was a NON recurve situation...Its not like there is a huge trof that is coming down to hook this.....I still don't think the US escapes w/o a landfall somewhere. We will see...I agree with Aric...I think MOST if not ALL said that at one point.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3334 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:40 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:
fox13weather wrote:Who was the poster who insisted that this was NOT A RECURVE SITUATION?? This is a recurve situation. Irene may never impact the United States!



Okay, I"m getting really confused now. AirForceMet earlier mentioned that he couldn't see this track moving any further east, unless the pattern conmpletely changed, and said that it's possible it could even shift west, but now you are saying there's a chance this doesn't even hit the USA...Actually, you are the first MET I've heard this from. Can we hold you to this?... ;) It's a big risk to put those words out there.....


The reason, I believe he mentioned that is because the current trough and associated energy is already starting to lift out. some ridging is likely to build back in over the next 24 th 36hrs. after which another trough .. the one models have been saying will eventually create a large enough weakness will come along and turn it.. in the mean time the ridging should be enough to it on a wnw track longer than the models forecast. The Think NHC realizes this and continues to stay left of the consensus.
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#3335 Postby Dave » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:42 am

443
URNT15 KNHC 221640
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 38 20110822
163030 2026N 06643W 6966 03160 0080 +075 +061 130049 049 041 001 03
163100 2024N 06645W 6970 03154 0077 +076 +063 133049 051 041 000 00
163130 2023N 06646W 6967 03156 0078 +073 +073 133053 054 040 002 00
163200 2022N 06647W 6971 03150 0083 +069 //// 132056 058 040 002 01
163230 2021N 06648W 6965 03157 0080 +070 //// 132055 057 041 000 01
163300 2020N 06649W 6969 03152 0082 +067 //// 131051 052 043 002 01
163330 2019N 06651W 6971 03148 0070 +072 //// 134051 052 043 002 01
163400 2018N 06652W 6971 03145 0064 +077 //// 137047 049 041 000 05
163430 2017N 06653W 6968 03148 0061 +080 //// 138047 048 043 002 05
163500 2016N 06654W 6967 03149 0065 +074 //// 139047 047 044 003 01
163530 2015N 06655W 6968 03148 0061 +077 //// 137044 046 043 004 01
163600 2014N 06656W 6969 03144 0056 +080 //// 133043 044 043 001 01
163630 2013N 06658W 6970 03143 //// +072 //// 129044 045 043 001 01
163700 2012N 06659W 6967 03141 //// +074 //// 131040 042 042 003 01
163730 2010N 06700W 6967 03143 0051 +078 //// 129042 043 042 000 05
163800 2009N 06701W 6971 03139 0051 +080 //// 131045 046 043 001 01
163830 2008N 06702W 6974 03134 0043 +080 //// 127043 044 042 000 05
163900 2007N 06704W 6970 03137 0036 +090 +082 130042 042 042 001 00
163930 2006N 06705W 6965 03141 0034 +092 +078 128041 041 043 001 03
164000 2005N 06706W 6967 03138 0034 +092 +079 127043 045 043 000 03
$$
;
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Recon

#3336 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:44 am

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3337 Postby AJC3 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:45 am

otowntiger wrote:
fox13weather wrote:Who was the poster who insisted that this was NOT A RECURVE SITUATION?? This is a recurve situation. Irene may never impact the United States!
That's a pretty strong statement there. But I may have to agree. BTW the poster you were talking about (probably 'KWT') is one of our better, more level headed ones we have that is not a pro met. He actually is one that is usually sounding the 'recurve bell', but this time the synoptics were (maybe arhe) different.


No U.S "impact" is a massive stretch considering that this is likely to be a large major hurricane once it turns northwest and northward. Coastal areas will be significantly impacted by surf even if the extreme eastern solutions verify. Seems very unlikely to not have at least sustained winds approaching TS force brushing a pretty large portion of the SE US seaboard.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3338 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:45 am

It looks like Hispaniola is having some effect on this right now, doesnt look as good as earlier
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Recon Discussion

#3339 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:46 am

For the images, care to go to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/archive_for ... ne%20IRENE and place the track on GE? I found it useful to compare the obs with the projected track to see how far off the storm was moving. Need to download the latest advisory track kml each time.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3340 Postby alch97 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:48 am

Is it heading westward? Can someone clarify?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html
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