I sure hope not!

[Scott_inVA]

http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm

Floyd brush but more to the west. Not a pleasant scenario.

FWIW, at 240 hrs the AVN is "only" off by ~750 miles

Scott

[alicia-w]

http://facs.scripps.edu/surf/nata.html

[Stormchaser16]

Models seem to be sinking further and further south with each run. And it seems likely that they are correct, which makes my early prediction of an east coast hit not so quarky anymore lol. I think the reason for them sinking further and further south is because it seems to be taking longer and longer for TD10 to become stronger.

[cycloneye]

Oh boy those models are more and more to the west than fish track.With every run there is a new set of tracks for the models although not a stone thing but we can use them as a guidance for what will happen.

[Stephanie]

Alicia - your website looks like it has a "double whammy" for the East coast by 168 hours! :o

Stormchaser - I'm impressed with how insync all of the model's tracks are!

[Anonymous]

Then, perhaps, N VA could get a few inches (1 to 6 inches) of rain from it?

Is that a possibility?

If so then Bring It ON baby!!!!!

I want some rain!!! We "only" got 1.3 inches last night from that thunderstorm line.

-Jeb

[Stormchaser16]

JEB....... it does appear that like i said yesterday 1-4 inches are still a possibility from Fabian as it now has the chance to actually make landfall on the east coast or at least a very close call. Please read my new thread for indepth analysis.

Stephanie I myself and very impressed with how insync the models seem to be. Operational models and ensembles alike! The only differences are that they sink further and further south and west every once in awhile, which is easily explained by the fact that it is slowly developing, and should only continue to slowly develop with no rapid development expected.

[Colin]

Stop joking with me guys...we're not gonna get all that rain...man, that's funny!

Man...if we do, we're going to have massive problems because the soil is already moist here and so is the ground! :o

[Steve H.]

Thing is, yeah its far out, and not likely close to the final "playing field" for Fabian, but there is such a concensus of the models. Is it because of a Climatology algorithym?? If not...that is scary :o

[alicia-w]

if the wave direction has anything to do with the direction of the storm, i dont see how it can go up the coast, rather it might travel through the Florida Strait.

[Stormchaser16]

??????????????????

Called a giant front sitting right along the eastern seaboard and a strong trough that will force it up the coast........ What you dont remember Floyd, im sure the waves were heading the same way back then and it still turned up the coast

[PTrackerLA]

It seems to be a while since we last had a cane hit the eastern seaboard. Was the last storm Floyd?

[rob8303]

Ptracker, La. Yep, Floyd was the last eastern seaboard hit and what a hit it was.

[Colin]

All I can say is that this storm is going to need to be monitored very, very closely...

[Anonymous]

Hit the East Coast, particularly in or anywhere near Virginia!!!

I want some excitement!!

Colin, I am sorry you have had excessive rains. I don't want you to get it, just Woodbridge, VA!!!

I'm goin' on down to the Potomac River and watch the water levels!!!

YEAH BABY!! BRING IT ON!!!


-Jeb

[GalvestonDuck]

You want a hit???

[Rainband]

Our locals are watching it..It's way to far out yet to worry about it..but I am prepared if it comes to florida!!! :o

[Scott_inVA]

Hit the East Coast, particularly in or anywhere near Virginia!!!

I want some excitement!!


YEAH BABY!! BRING IT ON!!!


-Jeb

Never been in a hurricane, eh, Jeb?

Scott