ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Frank2]

Not questioning the recon, but questioning what I'm seeing on the VIS loops - the 1/2 mile shows a WNW movement of the eye or center, but the 1 mile shows a NW movement - perhaps the LLC and MLC have separated, but as others said recon hasn't reported that so far (at least in the vortex messages)...

Frank

[divanicki75]

never really had an intense eye wall if it had one at all....Cat 4 in SC is going destroy a lot of things...including lives lost. People need to prepare to leave and get inland.

I was about to post asking why no one is mentioning SC as where the storm will hit. I'm an amateur in Charleston, and to me from everything I'm seeing on here, it could be a possible hit to CHS as a Cat 3 or 4...? It's funny how soon people forget and become complacent. We JUST celebrated Hugo's 20th anniversary and a bid deal was made. Now everyone is fluffing this off like it's nothing. I remember people telling me stories of getting stuck on the interstate for 18 hours (granted that's before they did lane reversal here). Now, I know that I sound frantic, and I'm not really- just matter-of-fact... but I'm wondering when I should pack of the work laptop and the kids and head to Charlotte where hubby is already has a hotel for a couple of weeks due to training... I'm thinking by Wednesday we should have a better idea?

PS- going to stock-up on supplies after work... I bet the stores won't be busy...

[gatorcane]

I might be wrong, but are the LLC and MLC not stacked vertically or have even separated, with the LLC moving WNW and the MLC moving NW?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

I don't see that. Looks well stacked to me, though RECON will tell us for sure.

maybe the GFDL is on to something here

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Dave]

977
URNT15 KNHC 221740
AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 44 20110822
173030 1752N 06707W 6946 03187 0066 +090 +055 209037 038 030 000 03
173100 1752N 06705W 6947 03187 0066 +090 +052 209037 037 /// /// 03
173130 1752N 06703W 6946 03190 0067 +090 +052 211037 037 /// /// 03
173200 1752N 06700W 6949 03187 0073 +085 +050 207036 036 /// /// 03
173230 1751N 06658W 6945 03195 0077 +084 +058 205035 035 /// /// 03
173300 1751N 06656W 6947 03192 0081 +082 +066 204035 036 /// /// 03
173330 1751N 06654W 6942 03198 //// +062 //// 200036 037 /// /// 05
173400 1751N 06652W 6950 03190 0080 +078 //// 195036 036 /// /// 05
173430 1751N 06650W 6946 03195 0082 +080 //// 196035 036 /// /// 05
173500 1751N 06648W 6951 03190 0079 +083 +077 198036 036 /// /// 03
173530 1751N 06645W 6957 03184 0083 +083 +077 198036 036 /// /// 03
173600 1750N 06644W 6945 03195 0076 +085 +061 196036 037 /// /// 03
173630 1750N 06642W 6942 03201 0079 +085 +056 195037 038 /// /// 03
173700 1751N 06640W 6947 03193 0081 +083 +059 192037 037 /// /// 03
173730 1751N 06638W 6947 03195 0090 +077 +063 188037 037 /// /// 03
173800 1752N 06636W 6949 03196 0093 +078 +052 190039 040 /// /// 03
173830 1752N 06634W 6943 03204 0090 +079 +064 193036 039 /// /// 03
173900 1751N 06632W 6935 03212 0090 +075 //// 187038 040 /// /// 05
173930 1751N 06630W 6943 03201 0083 +081 +072 184040 042 /// /// 03
174000 1750N 06628W 6949 03195 0083 +085 +058 184038 038 /// /// 03
$$
;


Missions over...returning to St Croix V.I.

[Dave]

Scheduled missions for today...

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
A. 23/00Z
B. AFXXX 0509A IRENE
C. 22/1730Z
F. 24,000 TO 33,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 49
A. 23/00Z
B. NOAA9 0609A IRENE
C. 22/1730Z
F. 41,000 45,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 72
A. 23/00Z,06Z
B. AFXXX 0709A IRENE
C. 22/2315Z
D. 18.2N 70.9W
E. 22/2330Z TO 23/06Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 49
A. 23/12Z
B. NOAA9 0809A IRENE
C. 23/0530Z
D. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

[Hurricaneman]

Theres one possibility that hasnt been brought up, a possible stall in the Bahamas because the weakness closes up which would cause a plethera of possibilites from going straight west into Florida, to the next trough picking it up onto the current forecast path to out to sea with the next trough, I wouldnt rule out any possibilities until at least Wednesday

[chris_fit]

Theres one possibility that hasnt been brought up, a possible stall in the Bahamas because the weakness closes up which would cause a plethera of possibilites from going straight west into Florida, to the next trough picking it up onto the current forecast path to out to sea with the next trough, I wouldnt rule out any possibilities until at least Wednesday

While possible, I believe there is zero model support of this.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Wide View:

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 221743
97779 17414 20178 66408 30700 18038 09058 /3134
41725
RMK AF302 0409A IRENE OB 21
LAST REPORT
;

[Bocadude85]

I find it odd that NWS Miami is now forecasting "tropical storm conditions" from Wednesday night through Friday for my area even though they shifted the track further east. Is this because the system is expected to be that large?

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=mfl&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=265&map.y=87

[supercane]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 221748
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
200 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE MOVING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
DISCONTINUED...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 68.1W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WEST OF SANTO DOMINGO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD
TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.1 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK THE CORE OF IRENE WILL BE MOVING JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TODAY...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY...AND NEAR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS REMAIN NEAR NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
989 MB...29.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY
TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF
ELEVATED TERRAIN. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Frank2]

Probably because the cone of 39 mph winds extends over the area, but it's also for the marine community...

[Aric Dunn]

Theres one possibility that hasnt been brought up, a possible stall in the Bahamas because the weakness closes up which would cause a plethera of possibilites from going straight west into Florida, to the next trough picking it up onto the current forecast path to out to sea with the next trough, I wouldnt rule out any possibilities until at least Wednesday

While possible, I believe there is zero model support of this.

actually some of the consensus models show very weak steering and wobble Irene west into SF and wobbles it up the center of the state.

[mbsc]

I was about to post asking why no one is mentioning SC as where the storm will hit. I'm an amateur in Charleston, and to me from everything I'm seeing on here, it could be a possible hit to CHS as a Cat 3 or 4...? It's funny how soon people forget and become complacent. We JUST celebrated Hugo's 20th anniversary and a bid deal was made. Now everyone is fluffing this off like it's nothing. I remember people telling me stories of getting stuck on the interstate for 18 hours (granted that's before they did lane reversal here). Now, I know that I sound frantic, and I'm not really- just matter-of-fact... but I'm wondering when I should pack of the work laptop and the kids and head to Charlotte where hubby is already has a hotel for a couple of weeks due to training... I'm thinking by Wednesday we should have a better idea?


I think you may be thinking of Floyd in 99 for the long wait on the interstate. By the way, if you will remember Hugo hit Charlotte hard as well as the coast...I lived through Hugo as a Police Officer evacing people from the beach. It went fairly smooth except for the idiots who did not want to leave and during the storm called 911 begging for someone to come and get them.

[stormhunter7]

anyone notice the 12z Bams Shallow has a sharp left turn into Cuba, than a northwest to north movement in the next two days? A sign of a displaced system could have?

[Frank2]

Perhaps not displaced but decoupled...

[Aric Dunn]

Perhaps not displaced but decoupled...

yeah hispaniola is notorious for decoupling the low level center from the mid. take hurricane debbie for instance.. the shallow bam has the southern inflow getting stuck on the mountains and turning it like a tether ball. I think something similar will happen but this system is too large to completely decouple. be a west bend or even wsw as it passes to the west side of the island is possible

[stormhunter7]

Opps! I meant decoupled! haha!

[wxman57]

I find it odd that NWS Miami is now forecasting "tropical storm conditions" from Wednesday night through Friday for my area even though they shifted the track further east. Is this because the system is expected to be that large?

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=mfl&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=265&map.y=87

Yes. TS winds could brush the east coast of Florida unless the track shifts a bit more east.