ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

It doesn't look like she's moving much....

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

Seems to have slowed down big time.

[Lowpressure]

I'm new here!

I'm not from GA but Savannah is overdue for a hurricane,isn't it?

Savannah's physical location makes it difficult for a direct hit other than from the Ocean straight in (rare). Many areas are overdue I guess, Jacksonville is another.

[Lowpressure]

It doesn't look like she's moving much....

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

Seems to have slowed down big time.

Looks to me like clear intervention from DR restricting flow in from the south. Once she clears land, game on!

[maryellen40]

I'm new here!

I'm not from GA but Savannah is overdue for a hurricane,isn't it?

Savannah's physical location makes it difficult for a direct hit other than from the Ocean straight in (rare). Many areas are overdue I guess, Jacksonville is another.

I was curious because I watched the TWC show "It Could Happen Tomorrow about what would happen if a major hurricane hit Savannah.

[Blown Away]

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2004

RECON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INDCIATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD
DECREASED TO 939 MB. A DROPSONDE AT 01/1904Z INDICATED WINDS OF 154
KT...OR 177 MPH...AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. THE HIGHEST 700 MB RECON
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 2210Z WAS 134 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT A 121-KT
SURFACE WIND. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...FRANCES IS BEING HELD AT
120 KT...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERBALE
WOBBLE IN THE TRACK THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING. FRANCES HAS BEEN MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT
THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. THE GULFSTREAM-IV JET AND AN AFRES C-130
HAVE BEEN RELEASING DROPSONDES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF FRANCES. THE
SONDE DATA HAS PRODUCED SOME INTERESTING AND DISTURBING RESULTS.
THE HEIGHT DATA FOR THE VARIOUS PRESSURE LEVELS...COMPARED TO 18Z
SURROUNDING UPPER-AIR DATA...APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST 20 METERS TOO
LOW. HOWEVER...THE WIND DATA CLEARLY INDICATE A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N 75W...OR ABOUT 500 NMI NORTHWEST OF
FRANCES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE SHORT TERM...
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT FRANCES SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING AT 295 OR
EVEN 290 DEGREES MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ALSO...00Z
UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THAT THE 18Z NOGAPS AND 12Z UKMET MODELS
HAVE VERIFIED THE 00Z 500 MB RIDGE AND HEIGHTS THE BEST...WHILE THE
18Z GFS AND GFDL MODELS WERE MUCH TOO WEAK...AT LEAST 20 METERS TOO
LOW...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. SINCE THE 00Z MODEL RUNS WILL
HAVE THE NEW GPS DROPSONDE DATA INCLUDED IN THOSE RUNS FOR THE 06Z
ADVISORY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS BEING MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF FRANCES...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO THE 00Z MODEL
TRACKS SHIFT A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD.

FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATER NEAR AND WITHIN THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS CHAIN IN 24-48 HOURS. GIVEN THE ALREADY IMPRESSIVE
OUTFLOW PATTERN...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.
ALSO...THE VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...30-40 PERCENT HUMIDITY...THAT
FRANCES HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THROUGH AND INGESTING OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 60 PERCENT IN 36-60HR...
WHICH MAY ALSO HELP WITH THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Let's keep in mind the track was showing a NE FL/Ga landfall prior to getting the upper air data.

[ozonepete]

Major blow-up occuring off the NE DR coast. Intensification underway

Hot tower right over the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

[hcane27]

Simply put ... "overdue" implies that an event is happening on a schedule and will necessarily re-occur within a given time frame for a given location. This is not the case for tropical cyclone landfalls along any coast any where. The landfall of the center of any tropical cyclone is in no way scheduled or a must event.

[breaking wind]

Not likely but their is at least now a small chance this could be a fish spinner. Keep pushin north and than northeast Irene, nobody would complain.

[chaser1]

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2004

RECON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INDCIATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD
DECREASED TO 939 MB. A DROPSONDE AT 01/1904Z INDICATED WINDS OF 154
KT...OR 177 MPH...AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. THE HIGHEST 700 MB RECON
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 2210Z WAS 134 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT A 121-KT
SURFACE WIND. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...FRANCES IS BEING HELD AT
120 KT...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERBALE
WOBBLE IN THE TRACK THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING. FRANCES HAS BEEN MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT
THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. [b]THE GULFSTREAM-IV JET AND AN AFRES C-130
HAVE BEEN RELEASING DROPSONDES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF FRANCES. THE
SONDE DATA HAS PRODUCED SOME INTERESTING AND DISTURBING RESULTS.
THE HEIGHT DATA FOR THE VARIOUS PRESSURE LEVELS...COMPARED TO 18Z
SURROUNDING UPPER-AIR DATA...APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST 20 METERS TOO
LOW. HOWEVER...THE WIND DATA CLEARLY INDICATE A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N 75W...OR ABOUT 500 NMI NORTHWEST OF
FRANCES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.

Is it just me, or does it appear as if this area of mid / upper level clouds well removed from Irene ( look east of the coast of N. Florida, just to the north of the orange dry slot ), appears to have just gotten bumped from the south and is being pushed back northward against the slowly sagging trough?? I mean, Irene's northwest quadrant does not yet appear to have as impressive outflow as does to the NE, however am starting to wonder if the overall size of Irene is in fact causing ridging to its north, and perhaps bridging the to High Pressure areas.
Ooops, almost for the link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

[bexar]

Irene's pressures seem to be rising, is she weakening?

[ozonepete]

Irene's pressures seem to be rising, is she weakening?

Where are you seeing this?

[bexar]

Irene's pressures seem to be rising, is she weakening?

Where are you seeing this?

on advisory 7 she had 987, but on 8A she is up to 989

[RL3AO]

Irene's pressures seem to be rising, is she weakening?

Theres no recon in there. How do you know the pressure is rising.

[CW0262]

GFDL has been notoriously left so far and therefore unreliable. What is starting to drive me nuts is GFDL had a tendency to become very reliable when it comes to dangerous hurricanes like this one is quickly starting to become. So it could be off now but reliable when it comes to the steering features when it reaches GFDL's reliable range. Further, Irene is tightening-up, which isn't a good sign, and is also showing another wobble west which makes you wonder if GFDL is finally kicking-in.

What is the GFDL's reliable range?

[jdray]

GFDL has been notoriously left so far and therefore unreliable. What is starting to drive me nuts is GFDL had a tendency to become very reliable when it comes to dangerous hurricanes like this one is quickly starting to become. So it could be off now but reliable when it comes to the steering features when it reaches GFDL's reliable range. Further, Irene is tightening-up, which isn't a good sign, and is also showing another wobble west which makes you wonder if GFDL is finally kicking-in.

What is the GFDL's reliable range?

Not sure of range, but:
http://www.oar.noaa.gov/news/2008/forecast_model.html

For example, in the critical 48-hour and 72-hour time period, the model errors in the Atlantic basin were about 13 and eight percent, respectively, better than the next best standard model guidance. This corresponded to a slightly greater than 60 percent reduction in track errors relative to skill, as determined by the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC’s) Climatology and Persistence model.

So 8% at 48hrs, 13% at 72 hours in 2008.

[supercane]

Irene's pressures seem to be rising, is she weakening?

Theres no recon in there. How do you know the pressure is rising.

No reason to treat his statements like a police interrogation; he is correct that the advisories had that info based on the previous recon flight which showed that pressure increase:
(taken from recon thread)
Agree with you that we cannot tell what is going on with the system's central pressure currently without recon.

[CW0262]

GFDL has been notoriously left so far and therefore unreliable. What is starting to drive me nuts is GFDL had a tendency to become very reliable when it comes to dangerous hurricanes like this one is quickly starting to become. So it could be off now but reliable when it comes to the steering features when it reaches GFDL's reliable range. Further, Irene is tightening-up, which isn't a good sign, and is also showing another wobble west which makes you wonder if GFDL is finally kicking-in.

What is the GFDL's reliable range?

Not sure of range, but:
http://www.oar.noaa.gov/news/2008/forecast_model.html

For example, in the critical 48-hour and 72-hour time period, the model errors in the Atlantic basin were about 13 and eight percent, respectively, better than the next best standard model guidance. This corresponded to a slightly greater than 60 percent reduction in track errors relative to skill, as determined by the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC’s) Climatology and Persistence model.

So 8% at 48hrs, 13% at 72 hours in 2008.

Thank You for the info..it's sure getting tough on the nerves

[eastcoastFL]

I think i have the center at 19.3n 68W any one else have a clue?

[jdray]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/text.php?pil=AFD&sid=JAX

.LONG TERM...PER THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER...IRENE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWEST THEN NORTH
AND STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE CENTER OF IRENE IS NOW
FORECAST TO POSITION ALMOST A HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LOCAL
MAINLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS NEW TRACK IS
REALIZED...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

Even if it stays on track, Tropical Storm force winds extend out pretty far.

[robbielyn]

so far she looks to be headed straight for the nhc next forecast plot.