ATL: IRENE - Models

[AdamFirst]

Ok,

Someone please clarify several post up someone stated that the Euro had shifted west and brushed S.FLA. But I see no other post about it, I don't thnk it has even run yet.

Gatorcane erroneously posted an old image (yesterday's 12z)

[feederband]

quick question: what are some of the biggest Track shifts in a 24 hour period hurricane history?

hurricane Charley comes to mind

Yeah Charley...I ended up evacuating to where the storm ended up going...

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Ok,

Someone please clarify several post up someone stated that the Euro had shifted west and brushed S.FLA. But I see no other post about it, I don't thnk it has even run yet.

Gatorcane erroneously posted an old image (yesterday's 12z)

Thanks,

I was like what changed.

[Jevo]

quick question: what are some of the biggest Track shifts in a 24 hour period hurricane history?

probably hurricane jeanne in 2004..

It is where I came up with the term "The Stewart Shift"... During Jeanne, Katrina, and Frances Lixion Avila would write his forecast package and publish his cone... and in the immediate forcast pack following, Stacy Stewart would drop the worlds largest Facepalm and shift the entire cone..

Myself, Watckins, and a few other used to take bets on if it was going to happen in the NHCWX teamspeak

[artist]

quick question: what are some of the biggest Track shifts in a 24 hour period hurricane history?

probably hurricane jeanne in 2004..

It is where I came up with the term "The Stewart Shift"... During Jeanne, Katrina, and Frances Lixion Avila would write his forecast package and publish his cone... and in the immediate forcast pack following, Stacy Stewart would drop the worlds largest Facepalm and shift the entire cone..

Myself, Watckins, and a few other used to take bets on if it was going to happen in the NHCWX teamspeak

those were fun days!

[jlauderdal]

quick question: what are some of the biggest Track shifts in a 24 hour period hurricane history?

hurricane Charley comes to mind

Yeah Charley...I ended up evacuating to where the storm ended up going...

you should tell people you were chasing it and nailed the track

[fci]

quick question: what are some of the biggest Track shifts in a 24 hour period hurricane history?

Betsy back in 1965



Uploaded with ImageShack.us
She passed South Florida on the way to The Carolinas and made a bit of a u-turn east of North Florida

[sfwx]

Interesting discussion about wind field. Also wave heights in marine disco is probably getting the surfers attention!

000
FXUS62 KMLB 221849
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
249 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2011


MEDIUM RANGE...(PREV DISC) DEEP SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE ERN
SEABOARD WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE PARENT LOW OVER ERN
CANADA LIFTS INTO THE ITS MARITIME PROVINCES. A LARGE CONTINENTAL
RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL FILL IN BEHIND IN...DRAWING THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS NWD.

E/SERLY FLOW WILL DEEPEN INTO WED AS THE RIDGE AXIS LIFTS N OF
THE STATE...THEN WILL STRENGTHEN STEADILY THRU THE DAY WED AS HURR IRENE
MOVES ACRS THE BAHAMAS AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WILL THE RIDGE. WILL
KEEP COASTAL SHRAS IN THE FCST TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
THE DEEPENING ERLY FLOW WILL FOCUS DIURNAL PRECIP OVER THE WRN
PENINSULA...THOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP SCT
POPS IN FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERNMOST COASTAL COUNTIES.

LTST TRACK OF IRENE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EWD AND LTST CONSENSUS
TRACKS IRENE EAST OF THE PENINSULA. ONE SHOULD NOTE THAT PASSAGE
OVER OPEN WATER FOR A LONG DURATION HAS UPPED WIND INTENSITY
FORECASTS. SO POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR EFFECTS ON ECFL WHILE CONSIDERING
WE ARE REMAINING IN THE CONE OF THE FORECAST. REVIEW YOUR HURRICANE
PLAN AND STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS CONCERNING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM



MARINE...


CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE WED AS ERLY SWELL GENERATED BY HURR IRENE
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6FT
OFFSHORE WED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THRU THE DAY. SCA
CONDITIONS AREA WIDE LATE WED NIGHT AS IRENE MOVES ACRS THE
BAHAMAS. SEAS BUILDING TO 6-7FT NEARSHORE AND 8-10FT OFFSHORE WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20KTS AROUND SUNSET WED...THEN TO 20-30KTS
THUR
PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...PENDERGRAST
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....SEDLOCK/VOLKMER
BRIEFINGS...SPRATT

[Portastorm]

Please don't post these long forecast discussions in the model thread without highlighting relevant text and explaining to the forum why you feel it's important.

Lots of information here and lots of folks who are eager to read through it. Thanks.

[supercane]

Another try at the Euro, let me know if this is right. From Allan's site, 12Z ECMWF:
Day 0 Mon:

Day 1 Tue:

Day 2 Wed:

Day 3 Thu:

Day 4 Fri:

Day 5 Sat:

Day 6 Sun:

Day 7 Mon:

[mascpa]

I can't see anything.

[Aric Dunn]

probably hurricane jeanne in 2004..

It is where I came up with the term "The Stewart Shift"... During Jeanne, Katrina, and Frances Lixion Avila would write his forecast package and publish his cone... and in the immediate forcast pack following, Stacy Stewart would drop the worlds largest Facepalm and shift the entire cone..

Myself, Watckins, and a few other used to take bets on if it was going to happen in the NHCWX teamspeak

those were fun days!

we do still do that.. its now IPR365

[gatorcane]

Look how much of the shift the GFS Ensemble means have made to the east between 00Z and 12Z, and they are more tightly clustered at 12z.

00Z:


12Z:

[gatorcane]

An early look at the 18Z NHC model guidance suite. UKMET now east of Florida. Only a couple of GFS ensemble means and the GFDL are into Florida right now...

[Aric Dunn]

Look how much of the shift the GFS Ensemble means have made to the east between 00Z and 12Z, and they are more tightly clustered at 12z.

00Z:
[img]http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/atcf/00zatcfensinvest2.gif/img]

12Z:
[img]http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/atcf/12zatcfensinvest2.gif[/mg]

notice how touchy those tracks are.. all that has to happen is Irene delay the turn by half a day or 100 miles or so then SE florida brush is back in it.. the tracks right now just see too far out there.. hopefully the gulfstream data will clear things up

[BigA]

Look how much of the shift the GFS Ensemble means have made to the east between 00Z and 12Z, and they are more tightly clustered at 12z.

They are tightly clustered to landfall in southern New England. That's the problem: there is a weakness to turn the storm north, but not enough of a trough to turn it east.

[bucman1]

Is there really any synoptic set up that could cause one of those drastic shifts back west tords Florida or the EGOM?

[petit_bois]

wow... starting to look more and more like a big fat fish...
Let's hope! Lord let's hope!

[otowntiger]

Look how much of the shift the GFS Ensemble means have made to the east between 00Z and 12Z, and they are more tightly clustered at 12z.

00Z:
[img]http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/atcf/00zatcfensinvest2.gif/img]

12Z:
[img]http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/atcf/12zatcfensinvest2.gif[/mg]

notice how touchy those tracks are.. all that has to happen is Irene delay the turn by half a day or 100 miles or so then SE florida brush is back in it.. the tracks right now just see too far out there.. hopefully the gulfstream data will clear things up

Any guesses on what changes (if any) the NHC applies to the track at the 5:00 advisory? I'm guessing that they are done with the eastward shifts for now but I don't have all the model data to say one way or the other. What do you all think?

[Jevo]

Is there really any synoptic set up that could cause one of those drastic shifts back west tords Florida or the EGOM?

The 12Z NAM run was hinting at a the trough flattening out and a stronger ridge building in... bringing Irene into SoFla... Pretty much the only thing the NAM is good for is synoptics