ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[ozonepete]

Irene's pressures seem to be rising, is she weakening?

Where are you seeing this?

on advisory 7 she had 987, but on 8A she is up to 989

I see how you're looking at the advisory numbers. They basically went 990 to 988 to 989 from Advisory 7 to 8 to 8a. That's not a big fluctuation at all. From those numbers I'd say that it's it was in a steady state up to 2PM. The central pressure will be estimated now by NHC until RECON goes back in this evening. They use a lot of different aspects such as satellite, radar, local observations nearby, etc. But we really have to wait for RECON.

[ozonepete]

Although I personally think it's intensifying again from the satellite images.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Epsilon_Fan]

She seems to be increasing in size, especially in the north and east quadrants. Hopefully the DR will choke her off somewhat and slow strengthening as I am located in the center of the NHC cone now

[otowntiger]

She seems to be increasing in size, especially in the north and east quadrants. Hopefully the DR will choke her off somewhat and slow strengthening as I am located in the center of the NHC cone now

Speaking of the cone what's everyone's take on what shifts the NHC will make to the 5 day track based on the latest model trends for the 5:00pm advisory? I would say they stay about where they are, but I don't have all the data.

[GCANE]

Major blow-up occuring off the NE DR coast. Intensification underway

Hot tower right over the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

It sure is Phil, great catch!

Can see it wrap on Funktop and has a nice cirrus debris at higher altitude.

She's ramping and building a taller CDO.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ft.html

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satellite/custom/index.htm?satellite=GOES-E+CONUS&type=Animation&numframes=15&width=1000&height=800&info=vis&zoom=1&palette=ir.pal&quality=100&map=standard&mapcolor=black&lat=19.5&lon=-68

[HURAKAN]

bursting

[Portastorm]

She seems to be increasing in size, especially in the north and east quadrants. Hopefully the DR will choke her off somewhat and slow strengthening as I am located in the center of the NHC cone now

Speaking of the cone what's everyone's take on what shifts the NHC will make to the 5 day track based on the latest model trends for the 5:00pm advisory? I would say they stay about where they are, but I don't have all the data.

A discussion better had on the Irene model thread, thank you!

[GTStorm]

She seems to be increasing in size, especially in the north and east quadrants. Hopefully the DR will choke her off somewhat and slow strengthening as I am located in the center of the NHC cone now

expect an eastward shift of the cone at 5:00......GFDL model was the significant outlier, but its last run is trending closer towards the others. NHC may chose to wait until G-IV data is incorporated, so I wouldn't expect a significant shift, my guess would be around myrtle beach for this forecast update, to be consistent w/ the model trends.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Sanibel]

What is the GFDL's reliable range?

It tends to do better with a well-developed hurricane with a distinct eye. It can also prog High pressure ridges better because its dynamic tuning.


I think they tinkered with it this year. No model is perfect but I thought I had learned GFDL's tendencies and could adjust. Now I'm not sure. It was way off with its recent south of Cuba track. - But Irene didn't have an eye.

[otowntiger]

She seems to be increasing in size, especially in the north and east quadrants. Hopefully the DR will choke her off somewhat and slow strengthening as I am located in the center of the NHC cone now

Speaking of the cone what's everyone's take on what shifts the NHC will make to the 5 day track based on the latest model trends for the 5:00pm advisory? I would say they stay about where they are, but I don't have all the data.

A discussion better had on the Irene model thread, thank you!

Sorry!

[Epsilon_Fan]

She seems to be increasing in size, especially in the north and east quadrants. Hopefully the DR will choke her off somewhat and slow strengthening as I am located in the center of the NHC cone now

expect an eastward shift of the cone at 5:00......GFDL model was the significant outlier, but its last run is trending closer towards the others. NHC may chose to wait until G-IV data is incorporated, so I wouldn't expect a significant shift, my guess would be around myrtle beach for this forecast update, to be consistent w/ the model trends.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

seems to be trending eastwards pretty rapidly in the last 24 hours. Yesterday they were pointing to N. Fla. or GA and now we're almost in NC now! Better on the weak side of the storm if it grazes Charleston.

If this intensifies rapidly, does this mean more recurve?

[Jevo]

Call me crazy.. but any shift further East would be unlikely @ 5PM... Just like all of us Im sure the NHC is waiting to see the data that the Gulfstream IV is plugging into the models is going to produce. There is no need to take people off their guard yet with 3+ days

[canes04]

forward motion has really slowed down today.
this may give the ridge time to build back in.

everyone along the east coast must monitor Irene closely.

[chris_fit]

It definitely seems to have slowed down, was this forecast by any of the models?

[CW0262]

What is the GFDL's reliable range?

It tends to do better with a well-developed hurricane with a distinct eye. It can also prog High pressure ridges better because its dynamic tuning.


I think they tinkered with it this year. No model is perfect but I thought I had learned GFDL's tendencies and could adjust. Now I'm not sure. It was way off with its recent south of Cuba track. - But Irene didn't have an eye.

Thanks Sanibel!

[fci]

Call me crazy.. but any shift further East would be unlikely @ 5PM... Just like all of us Im sure the NHC is waiting to see the data that the Gulfstream IV is plugging into the models is going to produce. There is no need to take people off their guard yet with 3+ days

I'm with you. For continuity sake and while awaiting the important data, I see very little change to the last track for this advisory.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[dmbthestone]

Curious to when the models with be using the info from the Gulfstream IV ?

[supercane]

She seems to be increasing in size, especially in the north and east quadrants. Hopefully the DR will choke her off somewhat and slow strengthening as I am located in the center of the NHC cone now

Speaking of the cone what's everyone's take on what shifts the NHC will make to the 5 day track based on the latest model trends for the 5:00pm advisory? I would say they stay about where they are, but I don't have all the data.

A discussion better had on the Irene model thread, thank you!

Can we have a little clarification on what is appropriate for this thread? I agree more with otowntiger that this thread is the appropriate venue for his/her topic. The official track, which forms the basis for the cone, is not a forecast model, and thus discussion of the implications of the model trends (versus posting individual models) would seem to fit this thread more than the model thread (which tends to focus on posting individual models). In addition, we have from earlier in the model thread:

FOLKS THIS THREAD IS FOR MODEL DISCUSSION. Keep the rest of the track discussion in the regular thread

and

Posts that do not directly pertain to a model run will be deleted by the staff.

Back on topic, curious to see if this can finally form a true eyewall, as it was broken to the SW on earlier microwave:

[GCANE]

That hot-tower did a great job on building a taller CDO as seen on ADT.


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 221215.jpg


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/09L.GIF

[DESTRUCTION5]

She has slowed to a crawl...Its become a given IMO when these storms are in and around DR...

has not traversed much water today based on that Microwave..