ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[ColinDelia]

A TC with a (9 mile high) hot tower in the eyewall is about twice as likely to intensify in the next 6 hours than one without. (Kelley, Stout 2004)

[Mouton]

Call me crazy.. but any shift further East would be unlikely @ 5PM... Just like all of us Im sure the NHC is waiting to see the data that the Gulfstream IV is plugging into the models is going to produce. There is no need to take people off their guard yet with 3+ days

I am going to reiterate what I said sometime ago....I don't expect any further shift to the east in the NHC thread, in fact, I would not be surprised to see a slight westard jog, for two reasons, first off the storm on a wobble went farther west than anticipated and second they want to keep people in Fla, especially central to north florida on alert because the slowing motion could mean a ridge forming across its northward path hemming it in. No way to tell without the G14 data so why would they?

Keep your eye on what the storm is actually doing and don't let the models fool you.

Obviously not the posting of an expert, this is just the ramblings of someone with a keyboard and the time to strike the keys.

[quaqualita]

anybody knows when the next recon mission is scheduled? really wouldn't mind seeing the almost live data when Irene is coming towards us here at the DR north coast .
I'm not convinced yet that center and strongest winds in NE quadrant will stay offshore, way too close for comfort and hard to tell on sat images alone.

[Frank2]

Looks kind of mushy right now (not a meteorological term - lol)...

Apparently the dry air coming off the mountains is putting a hurt on it, and it's slow motion might be due to it being in a COL prior to it encountering the trough, so perhaps that's one reason for it moving very slowly and this time...

Ironically (or not so) due to the COL and slow movement over the past 8 hours, it's undergoing almost similar weakening due to orographic effects, as if it had crossed the island...

Frank

[HURAKAN]

latest infrared - bursting

[Lowpressure]

Looks kind of mushy right now (not a meteorological term - lol)...

Apparently the dry air coming off the mountains is putting a hurt on it, and it's slow motion might be due to it being in a COL prior to it encountering the trough, so perhaps that's one reason for it moving very slowly and this time...

Ironically (or not so) due to the COL and slow movement over the past 8 hours it's undergoing almost similar weakening due to orographic effects, as if it had crossed the island...

Frank

Not seeing mush or any dry air issues. I see a strengthening CDO, with some southerly inflow hinderence, but not much.

[supercane]

This evening. From the recon POD:
FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 72
A. 23/00Z,06Z
B. AFXXX 0709A IRENE
C. 22/2315Z
D. 18.2N 70.9W
E. 22/2330Z TO 23/06Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[TheDreamTraveler]

Funny how I see one post saying that dry air is entering Irene and messing with it, yet I see a picture posted after that showing a bursting healthy looking center...

[Frank2]

Perhaps it's the VIS photo in the lowering sun angle that gives it that quilted look - it's getting to be Fall...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

[sunnyday]

Since Irene may be as much as 100 miles off the SE Fl coast, why is Fl still in the cone? Also, when do you expect it to be removed from the cone? Thank you for your replies.

[Frank2]

The effects of a system of that size will be felt a long distance from the eye or center, and it's especially important for marine interests to know what to expect, even if the weather on land isn't considered that bad...

[fci]

Looks kind of mushy right now (not a meteorological term - lol)...

Apparently the dry air coming off the mountains is putting a hurt on it, and it's slow motion might be due to it being in a COL prior to it encountering the trough, so perhaps that's one reason for it moving very slowly and this time...

Ironically (or not so) due to the COL and slow movement over the past 8 hours, it's undergoing almost similar weakening due to orographic effects, as if it had crossed the island...

Frank

What is "COL"?

[Bocadude85]

If NWS Miami is forcasting TS conditions to potentialy impact South Florida wednesday night and watches go out 48 hours prior wouldnt that mean TS watches would have to go up tonight?

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=mfl&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=265&map.y=83

[ColinDelia]

Much more symmetrical CDO the past hour.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-bd.html

[linkerweather]

Since Irene may be as much as 100 miles off the SE Fl coast, why is Fl still in the cone? Also, when do you expect it to be removed from the cone? Thank you for your replies.

The cone is not a forecast but simply a graphical representation of historical error and various forecast time periods.

[Evil Jeremy]

Did the gulfstream flight ever actually take off?

[Frank2]

That's weather's version of an interstitial area between highs and lows - kind of a neutral zone with very light or calm winds...

[RL3AO]

Since Irene may be as much as 100 miles off the SE Fl coast, why is Fl still in the cone? Also, when do you expect it to be removed from the cone? Thank you for your replies.

Because the average error for a forecast four days out is over 200 miles.

[chris_fit]

Did the gulfstream flight ever actually take off?

Yes, currently flying.

[AdamFirst]

Did the gulfstream flight ever actually take off?

Yes. I believe it's over the southern Bahamas right now or somewhere beyond that.

The Air Force upper atmosphere dropsonde mission (30,000 feet) is also ongoing.