ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[otowntiger]

Did the gulfstream flight ever actually take off?

Yes, currently flying.

Finally! It seemed like it was going to be forever before we get some better atmospheric data. Should be interesting to see what (if any) effect it has on the forecasted track.

[ColinDelia]

Since Irene may be as much as 100 miles off the SE Fl coast, why is Fl still in the cone? Also, when do you expect it to be removed from the cone? Thank you for your replies.

The cone is just created from the 5 year forecast error. The full width of the cone at any point is derived in such a way that 2/3 of the forecast errors for that time-frame will be included in the cone.

[artist]

G-IV dropsonde positions and current position

[supercane]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 222052
TCDAT4

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

DATA FROM THE LAST AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AROUND 1700
UTC INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS STEADY AND THE WINDS
HAVE NOT CHANGED DURING THE DAY. SINCE THEN...HIGH RESOLUTION
SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND A
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...SUGGESTING THAT IRENE
COULD BE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING. HOWEVER...DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 4.0
AND 4.5 WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 70 KNOTS.
ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK THE HURRICANE AROUND 0000 UTC TONIGHT.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DISRUPTION OF THE OUTER CIRCULATION BY
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...WHICH PROBABLY WILL SLOW DOWN THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...ALL OF THE
INGREDIENTS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR IRENE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR IRENE TO BECOME A STRONG
CATEGORY 2 OR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
WIND SCALE AS IRENE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS INSIST
ON MAKING IRENE A LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE WITH MINIMUM PRESSURES
AROUND 945 MB AND 952 MB...RESPECTIVELY.

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11
KNOTS. CURRENTLY...THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS BEING CONTROLLED
BY A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FUTURE
TRACK WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL
INDUCE A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS
MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST SINCE MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...HAVE NOW FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE
ECMWF MODEL. THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN TURNING
IRENE NORTHWARD ALONG 78 OR 79 DEGREES LONGITUDE. ALTHOUGH IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...THE GUIDANCE TREND CONTINUES TO
LESSENS THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA BUT INCREASES THE THREAT TO THE
CAROLINAS.

DO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4
TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST
TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 19.5N 68.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 20.1N 70.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 20.8N 72.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 21.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 23.0N 75.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 29.5N 79.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTNT34 KNHC 222051
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE AIMS AT THE BAHAMAS...FORECAST TO BECOME A STRONG
HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 68.6W
ABOUT 215 MI...340 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NNW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD
TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST.
IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...
AND THIS MOTION WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL BE
MOVING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI
TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IRENE
COULD BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND LOCALIZED HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND 7 TO 11 FEET OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



000
WTNT24 KNHC 222050
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
2100 UTC MON AUG 22 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO EASTWARD
TO CABO ENGANO
* ALL OF HAITI

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 68.6W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT.......160NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 68.6W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 68.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.1N 70.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 45NW.
34 KT...160NE 75SE 45SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.8N 72.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 45NW.
34 KT...160NE 75SE 45SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.5N 74.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 45SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.0N 75.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT...160NE 75SE 45SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 90SE 75SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 29.5N 79.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 68.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[artist]

anybody knows when the next recon mission is scheduled? really wouldn't mind seeing the almost live data when Irene is coming towards us here at the DR north coast .
I'm not convinced yet that center and strongest winds in NE quadrant will stay offshore, way too close for comfort and hard to tell on sat images alone.

you are in our thoughts and prayers. Be sure to keep us updated as you can there.

[Sanibel]

Much more symmetrical CDO the past hour.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-bd.html

Agreed. Look at the thick quilted appearance to the convection in the upper half of the storm. And this is with proximity to Hispaniola.

[bexar]

still 70KTs at 5PM

[CrazyC83]

Reading the forecast, looks like a Category 2 hit for North Carolina. But still trending east.

[CronkPSU]

looks like about the same tracking forecast at 5pm

[MWatkins]

Looks kind of mushy right now (not a meteorological term - lol)...

Apparently the dry air coming off the mountains is putting a hurt on it, and it's slow motion might be due to it being in a COL prior to it encountering the trough, so perhaps that's one reason for it moving very slowly and this time...

Ironically (or not so) due to the COL and slow movement over the past 8 hours, it's undergoing almost similar weakening due to orographic effects, as if it had crossed the island...

Frank

1. It hasn't slowed down. Should make the 0Z verify point near 69W. It's moving, the exact center isn't always easy to follow in sat imagery.

2. The CDO looks healthy. It may be leveling out for now, but it's not weakening. There is no evidence of that at this time

MW

[jdray]

looks like about the same tracking forecast at 5pm

Yup, seems that they are waiting for dropsonde data to be ingested in the models.

[CronkPSU]

5 PM discussion...

Irene is moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 11
knots. Currently...the motion of the hurricane is being controlled
by a narrow subtropical ridge to its north. However...the future
track will depend on the development of a large mid- to upper-level
trough along the East Coast of the United States. This pattern will
induce a gradual northwestward and then northward track through the
forecast period with a slight decrease in forward speed. There is
more confidence in the forecast since most of the track models...
with the exception of the GFDL...have now followed the lead of the
ECMWF model. The guidance is now in better agreement in turning
Irene northward along 78 or 79 degrees longitude. Although it is
still too early to be certain...the guidance trend continues to
lessens the threat to South Florida but increases the threat to the
Carolinas.

[quaqualita]

thanks! that's 7:15 local time?

[HugoCameandLeft]

looks like about the same tracking forecast at 5pm

That doesn't seem to jive with the NHC plot, does it?

[CronkPSU]

looks the same to me?

[CrazyC83]

That doesn't seem to jive with the NHC plot, does it?

That H just inland has an 80 kt intensity, so a landfall intensity would likely be about 90 kt on that track.

[HugoCameandLeft]

looks the same to me?

Nevermind, the graphic changed. Must have needed to refresh or something.

[ConvergenceZone]

Are they forecasting a Cat2 landfall now and not a Cat3?

[linkerweather]

looks like about the same tracking forecast at 5pm

That says 5 pm, but look at the time periods using 8 am, so it is from 11 am.

Edit to add...Must have been a graphic change...

[Meteorcane]

So probably not even a major at landfall? Looks like the streak will continue.